Dancing Bulls in Karachi Stock Exhcange Thank You PM and CJ for letting Nation concentrate on their job

Morning Call for Thursday, 18th Feb, 2010

Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest

Dancing Bulls in Karachi Stock Exchange
Thank You PM and CJ for letting Nation concentrate on their job

Daring efforts resulted in a comfortable journey of Bulls, from the beginning of the day aggravated bulls noticed in Karachi stock exchange. Above 9,900 profit taking witnesses which was later supported from 9,865.
Meeting of PM and CJ credited for the bullish move; the striving efforts were indicated in last couple of calls and at last the meeting enable the breakout.
The corporate announcements are still not bad, taking index to test the 10,000 very soon.
Market may show some early resistance around 9,880, later on the journey goes on by honoring the levels.
Do not lose the opportunity of buying in any dip, buying by following the level can be a profitable strategy.

Recommendations: The optimism continues; follow the targets given for March, 2010. Banking still looks comfortable.

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

Dancing Bears in Karachi Stock Exchange

Morning Call

for Tuesday, 16^th Feb, 2010

Khalid Saifuddin

Safely Invest

Ongoing Conflict between CJ and Presidency elevated the fear in small & daily traders

Once again the political crisis of the country made life miserable for the small investors and intraday traders. The past week bulls strived hard to gain the confidence in market, but unfortunately their confidence is strongly hit by current political development and media hype about the ongoing anarchy in the country.

From the beginning of the day market was under control of bears, initially low volumes noticed but later on around 9,690 some buying witnessed with shaky confidence. Feared bulls manage to sustain the 9,700 level, but still not confident to go long under prevailing selling pressure.

Now the last hope of the traders for market to trade above 9,708 all day on Tuesday with volumes, and this will also minimize the current bearish threat in market. If buyers manage the given level than market will be trading in a range of 9,700 and 9,955 for the following week, 9,871 will work as resistance for the market.

Trading below Monday’s low and closing negative will strengthen the bears for upcoming Bearish trend, from where market will follow the new track.

Banking sector along with the upcoming board meetings can play supportive role in market. If market unable to recover lost points before Wednesday, than it is recommended for traders to plan their exit strategy.

Key Levels

9837

9786

9746

9697

9657

9582

9520

Recommendations: The optimism about the economic growth and the expectation about the holding scrip are related to future development of the country’s political and administrative matters.

I recommend my leaders and administrative bodies to please concentrate on Poverty, Education, Health, Drinking Water, Power crisis, GDP, Unemployment, Foreign Investment and many more issues instead of running behind the power game

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

Karachi Stock Exchange for this week

Don’t worry about the judges issues; Nation is capable of handling these continuous hurdles in country’s growth
Weekly Forecast for the
3rd Week of Feb 2010

Hopes begin in
Karachi Stock Exchange
Market is nothing but the daring adventure

By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday, 12th February, 2010

KSE-100:
Traders started breathing sigh of relief after a struggling week in Karachi Stock Exchange and than we got SC and Presidency conflict right in front of market. But don’t worry fellow citizens we are capable of handling these issues since 1947.
The whole week recorded with range bound activities with the mixed sentiments of the scrips as mentioned in last week report. But eventually market recorded some encouraging activities in last two days of the week. Volumes rose by 41% with 0.03% gain in index. Under the prevailing lack luster activities no panic selling is observed from the local or foreign institutions, though the local traders were shy of getting in to the market.
Trading above 9,842 from the beginning of the coming week will strengthen the bull’s confidence. Sustained 9,800 level is giving the hopes for testing 10,000 again.
The smaller scrips were still noticed the most vibrant participant of the market, and it may bring the blue chip back into the ring.

The whole week market was around 9,815 which was also mentioned as major resistance in last week report.

Allhumdollialh the incoming foreign remittances and upcoming BOD of banking sector will trigger the market positively, Oil sector will still perform the volatile role, Cement sector will get into the volume leaders next week.

Key Levels
10,149
10,010
9,916
9,875
9,744
9,651
9,580
9,418

Market still got the potential to reach the ultimate destination in near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010. Buy recommended with honoring our scrip levels for high returns.

Scrip analysis will be available on Sunday the February, 14th 2010


To see detail weekly report and KSE scrip analysis please call 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or email us at safelyinvest@gmail.com


Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Morning Call for Tuesday, 9th Feb, 2010

Morning Call for Tuesday, 9th Feb, 2010


Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest

Utmost Skill observed
From Bulls to Support the market
http://www.allvoices.com/users/safelyinvest


In last couple of sessions its been observed that the small share having more than 60% stake of the daily volume, well at least the support is coming from all directions. Blue chips were able to maintain their prices with continuous lack luster activities.
As mentioned in weekly report 9,815 was the crucial level, and bulls faced strong resistance around the given level on first day of the week.
Now market may face resistance around 9,868 once crossing this level traders may get opportunity of doing profit taking around 9,912.
Today trading over 9,783 will ensure traders for quick returns, and I recommend fresh buyers to take entries around 9,745 for good intraday trade, on the other hand breaking and closing below this level will bring selling pressure.
We are still not having any panic selling from foreign and local institution which is supporting the local traders to hold their positions.
SBP’s last three T-bills issues with lowered cut-off yields plus its recent reverse repo transaction of banks for T-bills and PIBs are good initiatives to develop liquidity of our banking system which will facilitate them to provide credit to our seeking-for-capital industries. This move will strengthen the liquidity system of our banks which is needed not only for credit creation but also to make dominant monetary management instruments, especially policy rate, more effective in setting the direction for commercial banks’ credit policies.

Key Levels
9,946
9,912
9,868
9,815
9,783
9,745
9,705

Recommendations: No panic, just honor the levels and stay with the trend and book your profit and hold selective stocks.

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

Disclaimer: This commentary or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Traders breathing sigh of relief after a struggling week in Karachi Stock Exchange

Weekly Forecast for the
2nd Week of Feb 2010

Bulls reborn noticed in
Karachi Stock Exchange



By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday, 5th February, 2010

KSE-100:
From the beginning of the week striving bulls noticed in Karachi stock exchange but wasn’t able to maintain the momentum, the activities of traders were low and the volume declined by 7%. The lack of interest from local and foreign institution was observed in first two days of the week, but later on FIPI started buying on attractive rates. The smaller scrips were in lime light all week, and the blue chip companies were silent.
Fundamentally strong companies manage to maintain their share price during the lack luster activities.
Market accurately tested our precise level by its weekly high and the strongest weekly support. The closing of the week was quite vibrant and market manages to close 1.62% above the earlier week.
MQM PPP conflict was another reason for keeping investors away from the trading hall. For now both parties reached to an agreement but the elevating differences between MQM and ANP may hurt trader’s confidence in coming week. In short the country’s political and economical condition is still not supporting investors to concentrate on their trading plans.
Allhumdollialh the incoming foreign remittances ensuring bulls a little bit. Corporate results of banking sector will lead buyers for new rally. Presently 9,815 is the major resistance for bulls and 9,672 is the strongest support for new developing channel.
It is recommended to analyze the power of the bulls before adding more positions to your portfolio, for the coming week market may follow the range bound activities if the prevailing political conflicts continue. Most likely we are going to see mix activities, possibly some scrip will follow their own trend instead of following the index.
Key strategy for the week will be climbing with the momentarily profit taking.

Key Levels
10,036
9,940
9,815
9,672
9,566
9,395
Market still got the potential to reach the ultimate destination in near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010. Buy recommended on given support levels for high returns.

Scrip analysis will be available on Sunday the February, 7th 2010


To see detail weekly report and KSE scrip analysis please call 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or email us at safelyinvest@gmail.com


Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Karachi Stock Exchange with Hopes

Morning Call for Thursday, 4th Feb, 2010

Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest

Visit: http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/5158220-limited-activities-observed-in-karachi-stock-exchange-looking-for-trend

Limited Activities observed
In Karachi Stock Exchange

Market begins with lack luster activities because of the yesterday Sindh assembly event, all day traders were busy analyzing the consequences of breakup between the two major allies of the present government. Now the access to Rangers for law enforcement will bring sigh or relief to investors.
As earlier mentioned technically market enjoying the comfortable zone, now it is getting very close to the breakout, for the last day of this week it is required for bulls to have positive closing or at least above 9,636. On the other hand closing below 9,589 will bring some serious bears into the market.
Improved law and order situation can bring Foreign and local institutions back into the ring.

Key Levels
9,800
9,754
9,693
9,662
9,553
9,458
9,318
I recommend the intraday traders for banking and selective oil scrip for the last day of the week.

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

MQM and PPP conflict empowering Bears In Karachi Stock Exchange

Morning Call for Wednesday, 3rd Feb, 2010

Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest

MQM and PPP conflict empowering Bears
In Karachi Stock Exchange

Market begins with energy and excitement of bulls, most of the hours market comfortably traded around 9,650. Tough the investors were still concerned of issues, but at least they break the silence by participating excitedly.
Technically market still in a comfortable shape, but the serious conflict between the two parties of the elected government can take all the excitement out of the bulls.
Now it is very necessary to analyze the consequences of ongoing conflict and future impact on administration.
Market can get better over 9,716 and get worst below 9,550.

Still lack of Interest from Foreign investors, local institutions and traders were recorded feared selling. Elevating political and economical uncertainty can hurt the first quarter expectation of the investors.

Key Levels
9,782
9,750
9,716
9,651
9,549
9,465
9,392
9,322

I recommend the intraday traders to observe the situation very closely before getting into trade – do no wait to book their profits.

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

5th Consecutive Selling Session in Karachi Stock Exchange

Morning Call for Wednesday, 27th Jan, 2010

Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest

5th Consecutive Selling Session in Karachi Stock Exchange
Weaker bulls striving hard to stop the dancing bears

The selling pressure continues in Karachi stock exchange with really low volumes, the 2 volume leaders FFBL, LOTPTA contributed the 41% of the total volume, and the other scrips were the spectator today.
The bearish is threat is elevating in traders, as the local traders along with the institutions are really worried of the current political situation in the country, the breathing expectation from Friends of Pakistan even not able to catch the interest of the traders. Good corporate results unable to catch the local interest.

Tomorrow we wish to expect some miracles, like opening above 9,693 may invite the local traders to open new positions. The bulls will see the first resistance around 9,720 and the 9,800 can be a limit. On the other hand 9,634 is the last hope for the Market to get out of ongoing pressure, breaking this level will extend the down slide up to 9,417.

Unfortunately the local and foreign institution still not interested for fresh buying, delay in leverage product is also an issue for sideliners.

Breaking News: World Bank supporting economy by 6 billion USD among this loan the 4 billion is a soft loan and the remaining loan is for budgetary support. We are still waiting on the closing statement of friends of Pakistan meeting.

Key Levels
9,867
9,800
9,720
9,634
9,562
9,487
9,417

9,800 become a high resisting area, once bulls manage to break this level will fill energy and we may see the new direction for the market.

I do not see any stable indication for intraday buyers but the profit taking, but I see amazing possibilities for those who prepared to reschedule their portfolios for ongoing quarter results.

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

Karachi Stock Exchange for this week

Weekly Forecast for the 4th week of 2010
Congrats: for following in time profit taking call


By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday, 22nd January, 2010

Market Outlook:
Past week begin with the range bound activities resulted in bearish closing with declining -1.46% below the earlier week.
Overall trading activities were focused on profit taking volumes rose by 46% and the FIPI decline by 0.76%. Despite all these facts foreign reserves are still growing.
Market has initial resistance of 9,797 for Monday and utmost resistance will be 9,873. As per current scenario market is still under selling pressure, breaking 9,721 on Monday will elevate the selling pressure in market. The upward trend on Monday will be an opportunity for traders to their profit taking, as we already mentioned in our last report that target achieved, now the bullish hope begin over 9,933.
Market may show some support around 9,658 and breaking this level will extend the down slide up to 9,411.
I do not see any stable indication for buyers but the profit taking, but I see amazing possibilities for those who prepared to reschedule their portfolios for first quarter results.
The agreement between PSO and Wall Street exchange, MCB filed suit in Sindh High Court and the expectation of Power tariff increase of 24% can be the major concerns for traders this week.
The ongoing NRO consequences for president getting worst after the French government request to other nation for the evidence collection. The lawyers are also planning some movement to enforce the SC decision. All these issues are enough to shake the investor’s confidence.
As we are experiencing trading on levels benefit in all type of market behavior so I still see great potential for local traders by honoring the precise levels of the market. I still prefer some profit taking followed by the target buying of selective scrips.

Key Levels
10,258
10,061
9,999
9,658
9,563
9,411

Market still looks fabulous and energetic for the near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010. Buy recommended on given support levels for high returns.

External front glancing off:
The massive inflow of remittances, at last, recuperated our ever-expanding current account deficit. According to the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan, the current account deficit was down by 78 percent to stand at $1.76 billion during July-December, 2009 as compared with $7.85 billion in the parallel period last year. However, at the domestic side, where our economic activities are interpreted by rise in imports, the triumph may not provide any ground for complacency, since a sharp fall in imports has been depicted. But, the shrink of C.A deficit can help in overcoming major structural problems of our economy. What’s encouraging here is that exports of textile industry showed ‘out of the blue’ growth of over 15 percent in December, which is an optimistic mark for overall exports of the country. Although, one-time remittance flow was also a cushion for our C.A deficit this time, recent innovations in formal remittance channels and recovery in global economy is expected to give steeper northward direction to remittances in future. On the other side, what’s hurting is that FDI is going downward, a key driver of our national output as well as external capital account.

To see detail weekly report and KSE scrip analysis please call 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or email us at safelyinvest@gmail.com


Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Aggravated Bears activity recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange

Morning Call for Friday, 22nd Jan, 2010

Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest

Aggravated Bears activity recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange.
Market closed at last bouncing support may see some bounce from here.

Right from the beginning Market was under control of bears, bulls found helpless all day. Started with some early morning selling which elevated fear in traders and end up with lot of negative points. Once the given support worked and pushed back the bears, but bulls wasn’t able to sustain their power and bears got their control back.
The immense selling pressure changed the overall trend of the market, but I see a hope around 9,728, this level has the weaker ability to push back the bears, but unfortunately 9,789 has the strong resistance where the bears can possibly push the bulls back into depression.
Still lack of buying noticed from local and foreign institutions.
It is recommended to add selective scrips on supports; the current supports are 9,647 and 9,562
I still recommend profit taking, before we go further down, Banking and Insurance can play positive role tomorrow, fertilizer and Oil can be the supportive sectors for index.

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

Morning Call for Thursday, 21st Jan, 2010

Morning Call for Thursday, 21st Jan, 2010

Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest

Prominent sign of profit taking observed in Karachi Stock Exchange.
Lets the Bulls have some rest Folks

Market started with some early morning selling which was later turned into vibrant upside move where the traders participated with excitement and manage to test 10,000 barrier, but wasn’t able to sustain around it.
Given levels worked perfectly, market was bounced twice from the given S-1, and failed to sustain on third hit.
As I told you yesterday breaking and closing below 9,932 will bring selling pressure and it did, now the overall sentiment of the market is changing, no matter it tested 10,000 today.
As indicated the sign of bulls exhaustion recorded yesterday, and the same thing continues today. Minimum interest recorded from local and foreign institutions, local traders were in selling too.
9,976 still performed critically today, I am still optimistic as bears weren’t able to break 9,885 and bulls manage to close around 9,907 which was S-2 in our given levels.
I still recommend profit taking, before we go further down, Banking and Insurance can play positive role tomorrow, fertilizer and Oil can be the supportive sectors for index.
Buying around 9,860 with the stop loss of 9,810 is highly recommended. Holding some scrip is still profitable.

For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

Exhausted Bulls in a bullish Market - Karachi Stock Exchange

Morning Call
for Wednesday, 20th Jan, 2010


Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest


Market started with the positive activities and handsome volumes, during the trade bulls were able to test the 10,000 level, but wasn’t able to sustain around it.

Overall activities were bullish and it is observed that the traders regaining the confidence to be a part of the ongoing trend.

With all these bullish activities bulls also recorded sign of exhaustion, and later we saw some profit taking.

Market moving up in a low bandwidth, which is keeping bulls under a certain range. Lack of interest recorded from local and foreign institutions, local investors were also shy of holding their positions.

Trading and closing below 9,932 may bring some selling pressure, on the other hand 9,976 is still a critical level for getting out of 10,000 barrier

I wish market would not trade below 9,885, breaking this level will elevate the selling pressure and hit the regained confidence of the investors.

Market’s outlook is fabulous for near term future, but here it is fair to do remaining profit taking and find out the next level for entry. Holding some scrip is still profitable.



For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
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Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Morning call for Karachi Stock Exchange

Morning Call
For Tuesday, 19th January, 2010


Let bulls get some rest folks!



Folks I told you market will be range bound from here and possibly do some profit taking and it did. I am still stick to my last statement which is; Breaking 9,858 will bring some selling in market and 9,762 will be the lower limit for range bound activities.

Trading above 9,918 with volumes will allow buyers for re-entry. I don’t recommend too much excitement for buyers, be very specific in selection of scrip with given stop losses. Buying in negative index in strong and selective scrip with stop loss 9,858 can be a good entry

Minimum interest recorded from foreign and local institutions. The local traders were also preferred to be sideline.

I still see great potential for local traders by honoring the precise levels of the market. I still prefer some profit taking followed by the target buying of selective scrips.

Market still looks fabulous and energetic for the near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010.

For further assistance, precise levels of KSE scrip and buy calls, please call our office @ 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680, email: safelyinvest@ gmail.com


--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

The New Rally about to Begin

Last Report for 2009
Well done Bulls
The New Rally about to Begin

By
Khalid Saifuddin
Thursday, Dec. 24th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk

Market Technically:

KSE-100: Bear’s last wicket down by the amazing spell of bulls.
Congrats for Amazing success on this week trading, and folks tell you it is a great achievement if you make money in a lackluster market and you did.
Market looks fabulous and energetic for the near term future. We might see some resistance around 9,483; once crossing and closing above this level, bulls will be dancing all over.
The good news is market got out of depressive range and it may set new targets for near future. Furthermore the coming week closing will endorse the authenticity of the new rally.
I wish market would not close below 9,428, though it’s not a difficult target, but fewer indicators of market are blinking some selling on Monday. And breaking/closing below 9,315 will recharge the bears. Most of the negative events and political conflicts seem to be absorbed by the market.
Key Levels
9,719
9,591
9,483
9,289
9,170
9,067

Recommendation:
Now last call for investors is to re-arrange their portfolio and gear up for gaining high returns in March 2010. Focused buying is required to achieve the target.
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more than the market buys. Banking, Energy and Oil must be your primary selection. Insurance and Cement sector are already benefiting your capital gain

Recap of past week:
The past week had the amazing levels for our traders as our most of the buy calls honored and I am sure the readers of our reports and morning call realized the accuracy of our key levels in past week.
The ups and downs of the market behavior were monitored accurately and on behalf of these levels we had great buy calls. I was feared of going down from 9,293 but later on buyers along with the institutions manage to close the markets above the expected level, but if you guys remember the morning calls of the past week, that was pretty much updating on positive expectations.
And at the end market gone crazy by breaking most of the critical levels and manage to close in comfortable zone.

Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen

Greenback revivifies: FDI and FIPI should serve as cushion to ensure the money-back.

A mammoth piece of liquidity is going to be injected in our liquidity-evicted economy in form of recent IMP tranche of $1.2 billion. It can be seen that Pakistan faced a 37 percent loss in investment by overseas investors in the first five months of this financial year. Thusly, this active liquidity thrust can revitalize our foreign reserves; however, the foreigners’ interests of direct investments in our economy should be sustained, especially considering the sensitive behavior of FIPIs to country’s uncertainty situation. Though FIPIs have notably rebounded this week compared to the last week, the two ‘golden’ drivers of foreign reserves should remain persistent and encouraged in order to uninterruptedly repay the loan. No doubt, some of our high potential sectors are encouragingly playing their role in enticing foreign investments specifically in the recent scenario of shedding foreign investment.

The IMF disbursement, along with first tranche of USD 500 mn under Kerry Lugar Financial Program would put the seasonal spike in external debt servicing burden on a normal footing and thus stabilize the PKR.

As far as the issue of eroding foreign reserves is concerned, Ministry of Finance is considering ingoing into a currency swap agreements with China and Malaysia, according to which these countries will import from us in PKR and we will import our raw material and capital goods from them in Yuan and ringgit respectively. The agreement is yet at its initial stage and it may take some time to become operational by the banks, but it can well contribute in sustaining our greenback reserves, internationally required currency units.

A good move also includes the designing of new investment policy to protect local and foreign investors. According to the policy, customs duty would be reduced from 5-1 percent on capital goods and raw materials. There would be no sales tax and withholding tax on import of machinery. This would help trim down the cost of setting up of industrial units in the country.

This assortment of triumphs should prove to be a positive elicit for our equity market.

On the other face, some rowdy issues include rise in electricity tariffs and gas shortage are severely affecting key industry players. Textile, being the main export participant, is suffering around billion of losses due to the prevalent crisis. Besides, exports under Export Processing Zone (EPZ) have declined by 10 percent during July-November 2009 against last equivalent period.

Karachi Stock Exchange

Morning Call for Tuesday the 15th Dec. 2009


“Striving Bulls kicked Bears out of ring”


By Khalid Saifuddin

Monday December, 14th, 2009


KSE-100: Just got Bullish

The utmost daring activities resulted in kicking bears out of ring, sustaining 9,000 levels last week supported bulls to turn the upside down.

The fear, the depression gradually going far now, and the local investors gearing up for new rides, as I was telling you guys not to forget the last Qtr expectation, well the Dubai bail out plan and rallies in global market is not that important in my personal view.

In my last report I mentioned the rising early indication of bullish trend, that comes true today and now for the second day of the week I am not really convince of having same energy in bulls. I am feared of zone between 9.297 and 9,355. This zone can be the most resisting area for the market.

For bulls I would say trading over 9,275 all day will be good, and the new comers must think of their stop loss around 9,248.



For Medium term Investors (Clients) only

I like to congratulate our clients for accurately having their buys on targeted price of Banking, Fertilizer and Insurance sector sent on 6th, November, 19th, November and 9th, December respectively. So, get ready to calculate gains on your capital since some of our recommended scrip are very close to their first offloading target. Please do not hesitate to ask for further details on your portfolios.



Thanks and regards

Khalid Saifuddin

0345-276 8680

021-3432 2359


To receive live calls on KSE-100 Scrip and EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
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Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Karachi Stock Exchange "Forecast for 2nd Week of Dec"

KSE-100 “Elevating Fear in a Falling Market”

By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk

KSE-100
Market gone thru a depressive week with really low volumes, most of the expected danger was already mentioned in earlier report and posts; more range bound activities expected with the depression, few little upward moves will not open avenues for buyers. Now we have more indications for down trend. The last Qtr corporate results may support the market.
9,130 to 9,185 can be a major resisting zone for the market, crossing this zone with the bull power will give confidence to the investors.
The impact of Dubai crisis in global market is not over. The investors required to focus precisely on foreign investor’s position because the first week of December recorded the outflow of 41% of November holdings, so if this continues then the market will definitely get into complete bearish trend from the current range bound activities. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror wasn’t able to support market and at the end Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and the fear of security will impact more in near future. Increase in trader’s participation may strengthen the market little bit. I see US will be using the Weapon of funds inflow to strengthen Pakistani administration anarchy, as we get more inflows after the series of drone attacks. IMF also preparing to review on 12th, I am still wishing for have leverage back to the market, all these may charge bulls a little bit

Recommendation:
Traders must be very picky in present scenario, OIL, Fertilizer and Energy sector will be a good choice for trading, and Insurance can also benefit to small lot traders.


Recap of past week:
In our last report it was clearly indicated about the danger. We also highlighted the major concern which can affect the market and they did, at the end market closed in danger zone with shrunken volumes and range bound activities for the week
As it was mentioned earlier that Market currently at decisive point and the issues like NRO, 17th amendment, possible reshuffling in Cabinet, Sindh Governorship, burning Baluchistan, the corporate circular debts, industrial crisis, power shortage and upcoming gas shortage will keep the investors away from the market. Thanks to almighty we do not have the direct impact of global markets which are affected by Dubai crisis. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror may help market but the Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and ultimately the week concluded with depression

Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Sunday, Dec. 6th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk

Our financially globalize equity market is indigent amid flagging foreign investors’ confidence.
After rewarding optimistic reception to monetary policy and ricocheting economic indicators, waning confidence of foreign investors in the course of recent Dubai financial crisis is continued to lead our equity markets to an oversold position. KSE index hit hard along with other equity indices worldwide. The index is now ready to turn and stay red following any signal about pressures on it. Although Pakistan banks' exposure to Dubai crisis is within manageable margins but eroded risk appetite can influence FPI that has been the key driver of KSE.
While visualizing medium and long-term outlook, some favorable developments are in pipeline. Pak-German BIT is one of them. The pact is not only providing insurance against social and political risks of Pakistan but also paving the way for its unrealized investment potential, exploiting its untapped resource base, and enhancing financial assistance. This unrealized potential has also been realized by some other nations which are geared up to access the potential through different pacts. Mounting export of our skilled manpower is also adding on the imminent optimism of the country on the back of increasing remittances. Another financial assistance of $500 million is being assured by World Bank to facilitate the economy to get back on track.
In terms of specific sectors, power sector shows northward outlook of its trend at KSE. IPPs are chief beneficiary in this case which ensure decent returns and high earnings certainty. Upcoming expansion projects would also boost the sector’s performance. But on the other side, sharp hike in gas prices by 18 percent are depressing fundamentals of textile and cement sector. Increase in prices of cotton and its supply-shortage are further disturbing textile sector in its critical budding stage of recovery. Plus, on going circular debt issue is raising liquidity concerns for OMCs, Refineries, and IPPs. This may attack the supply chain of oil to IPPs.
So, a mix bag of optimistic and pessimistic sector-wise performance is taking its position. To reap the fruit of forthcoming opportunities, foreign portfolio investment should spring back on their track to recuperate the country’s risk premium and have the market rally around the track where investors can re-envisage uphill trend.


FOREX
EUR/USD
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk


Technical Highlights:

USD against EURO climb after the news for the Non Farm Payrolls, and it never looked back. U.S. Economy only lost 11,000 jobs as it was estimated 108,000 off. The EUR/USD pair reacted suddenly and moved 200 pips in downside on last day of the week, later on supported at the strongest support. This bounce off of the strong support level could provide an excellent opportunity to get into buy of EURO targeting 1.4910 level. (we already given a buy call on Friday)
And if the pair breaks the level and hit our stop loss then we will see a major bearish move, currently pair go up, then medium term selling pressure expected long term is Bullish

Fundamental Highlights: Strong capital positions seem to dodge the bullet.

Gone the threats of hurting from world’s financial crisis; recent Dubai debt crisis has swapped the same threatening spot to hurt financial markets, despite recent and imminent signs of economic revitalization. Different regions, from Asia to Europe, have exposure to Dubai debt, though impact of Dubai debt crisis is country-specific; not the region one. Fundamentally, currencies of U.S. and Euro zone should be least affected by it. U.K, being one of the high exposed countries, has not much currency-wise attachments to EUR. However, banks of these nations are ready to dodge the bullet on the back of their strong capital positions. Other highly exposed nations include U.A.E as well as Dubai itself. Over and above, the impact of investors’ sentiments shouldn’t be dubbed under fundamental upshots. These sentiments are not only impinging on Forex but also on equity markets throughout the countries of different regions. What can be complimentary now, is the behavior of investors who are gearing up to divest from Dubai markets and invest in other burgeoning markets where news flow is playing its part lucratively to defend the respective countries in terms of having least exposure and thus being least concerned.


For further assistance and live calls on EUR/USD you are always welcome to contact me @ safelyinvest@gmail.com

Disclaimer: This commentary, key levels and news are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

KSE-100 Feared Bulls bringing Bears back in the ring

KSE-100 Feared Bulls bringing Bears back in the ring

High Volatility expected with low volume in early hours


By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Monday, 23rd, Nov, 2009

Once again market getting out of its upward channel, yesterday market exactly closed around the critical level, and it was also observed the market tested the third given support.
All these are happening because of the present uncertainty due to NRO and the coming monetary policy, though we are not looking into any trouble making monetary policy. But investors shy to hold the positions.
Foreign investors still buying positions, just today their net buying was 865,507 USD and Mutual Funds were in buying too, they scored net buying of 889,836 USD, the shrinkage of volume added depression to the investors, though they were having an opportunity of buying their positions on cheaper price.
Now from here technically market getting into the bearish phase, the only hope for the market is to trade in positive zone today and closing above 9,247 will bring some hopes for Bulls.

Key Levels

9,425
9,368
9,320
9,286
9,247
9,216
9,176
9,144
9,119
9,086
9,037
8,990

Recommendations
Trade on key levels with the strict stop losses, market has more chances of going down from here, focus on your target buy.


Call for further assistance 021-3432 2359 or 0345-276 8680

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Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009

Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009

Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009

I am happy for all those who accurately followed the live calls and morning briefing, Shukar Alhumdulillah; despite of volatility market made possible for the day traders to book their returns. I hope you guys now realized why I was not encouraging the banking sector all week, likewise the performance of Cement sector. But tell you the securities performance was little weird.
I see comfortable position on political side, though we did not see any development, but government gaining confidence, the opposition once again on back foot.
The New government formation in Afghanistan made Pakistan more important in region. Leverage product on its way, government comfortably raised the power tariff.
Currently NFC award meetings enhanced the brotherhood among the provinces, now the next meeting in Lahore will bring some positive results.
Now the 9,425 will be giving resistance to the market and once breaking this level, then we will be having dancing Bulls everywhere. This week we achieved some of target buys for the last quarter portfolio.
On the other hand breaking 9,229 may bring Bears back in ring. So far the FIPI and the local institution supported market by buying new positions and I am sure this support will be continued as most of the scrip still trading on discount rate.

Recommendation:
Market is in Bullish phase, it is required to be specific on your scrip selection. Please follow the morning call and our key levels for your trades.

Key Levels

9662
9572
9484
9425
9229
9123
8952

Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday Nov. 20th 2009

Foreign-awarded investment appetite should redress local threats’ upshot.

Cross-border stream of equity investments is portraying mount in financial globalization. The increasing foreign reserves coupled with improved appetite for foreign investors to invest in our capital markets would help reduce the country’s risk premium and so the cost of capital. This in turn should prop up local investors to invest in money-spinning projects and thus further boost the performance of capital market. In part of our banking sector, loan portfolios are apt to recuperate in forthcoming quarters, primarily in correspondence to the risk-avert attitude of banks toward fresh lending. Though the rebound is still at its infant stage and can witness sector’s depression on account of some prevalent factors, SBP’s monetary-freeing initiative would be a favorable driver for fresh banking rally. However, the upcoming threat for our already ramshackle industry and trade is looming in form of hike in power tariff and surging imported inflation. At local level, SPI has also increased not only for the lowest income group by 1.18 percent but also for combined group by 0.92 percent on weekly basis, bullying superfluous push in consumption levels. Threat of social insecurity is also diverting FDI towards foreign aids pushing the country under foreign dependencies. This calls for proper coordination among fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies as well as control in political and social uncertainty to at least balance the economy in severe slam stage. Until these initiatives, foreign portfolio investments and softening monetary condition should alleviate the outcomes of these threats to some extent leastways.

We congratulate our clients that our target buy levels given in Commercial Banking Report on Nov. 5 have been hit.


Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009

I hope you might have profitably traded with our accurately tested buying calls.

Pair rotation glimpsed.
Slow revival of U.S. economy signals going on rally but volatility may take its toll.

After shaking off an aborted rally aloft, Euro deflated against dollar, followed by downside in European equity markets on account of an array of second-rate corporate news and commodity price declines in coupled with revised OECD GDP forecasts. Rebound in dollar was driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s lashing comments regarding implications of changes in the value of the dollar as well as by interest rate cut for extended period.
Going forward, U.S. economic indicators depict modest recovery owing to little rise in retail auto sales, industrial production and housing. This slightly raised core inflation. Yet, the pace of growth seems too slow to keep the rotation. Unemployment is forecasted to be sub-par for at least first two quarters of the coming year. The unemployment may further bring about credit risks for consumer and real estate debt. Interest rate cut and fiscal spending are expected to settle at the same track. However, upcoming mid-term elections in 2010 would squirt volatility and hence interest rates and dollar would prone to political pressures on Fed and vagaries of foreign central bank’s support for the dollar.

Trend: Sideways – empowering Bears (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
Recommendation: Enter with Short and Follow the key levels (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)

EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.5000 and 1.4845. The selling pressure continuously pushing down the EURO, though bulls are striving hard to get back into game; very soon we are going to see the breakout in pair. Intraday possibilities become narrow; the short trades will be appreciated.
Target your short around 1.4845 and if you trail your stop loss then you can drag your target up to 1.4780.
I don’t see much of hopes for bullish sentiment in short term; you may see some retracement of the trend. Well I am more concentrating on short term trades to benefit most of the day traders.

Extract from Successful Calls Last Week

Symbol Action Short Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48546 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 21.6
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48537 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 22.5
EUR/USD S 1.49126 1.48846 11/17/2009 5:19 11/17/2009 7:57 28
EUR/USD S 1.48783 1.48308 11/20/2009 5:49 11/20/2009 7:07 47.5
EUR/USD S 1.48736 1.48308 11/20/2009 6:01 11/20/2009 7:07 42.8

Symbol Action Buy Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD B 1.4913 1.49227 11/20/2009 1:57 11/20/2009 2:04 9.7
EUR/USD B 1.48135 1.48235 11/20/2009 7:09 11/20/2009 7:12 10

To receive further live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us.
s
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
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Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Focus on Target Buying

KSE-100: – Consistent Profit taking observed - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes - Sit tight for the targets

Once again with the grace of Almighty my selling call honored and I am happy for all those who followed my profit taking call on 9,350. and I am sure whoever is getting my scrip analysis are having fun tonight as most of the scrip exactly went down from the given level.
I am not saying market is Bearish from here, Market still got the inflow of USD 4,489,475 today basically it was a regular profit taking call and scrip goes down to their support where it is still good to buy. Do not panic here, but it is wise to off load most of your positions if you see market trading below 9,110 and closing below this level will wake up bears.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price. Volatility will exist and possibility of shrinkage in volume: I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish;
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index
Key Levels
9,491
9,422
9,385
9,334
9,249
9,204
9,178
9,110
9,064
8,991
8,946
8,879


Follow the last day scrip analysis, key levels are same. Try off loading your positions, and buy back half of it when you see a dip
Call me for any further query at 0213-432 2350 or 0345-276 8680 email @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Have a good trade.
Regards
Khalid Saifuddin


Disclaimer: This commentary or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.

Technical Forecast for KSE-100 For the First Week of Nov, 2009

Technical Forecast for KSE-100
For the First Week of Nov, 2009

By
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Saturday, October 31, 2009

Hi Folks:

The whole week market was under heavy selling pressure by mutual funds, and the Peshawar blast added more to the market. Though the buyer were striving hard to support market and the visit of US foreign minister was also scheduled to help the country’s current uncertain political and economic situation, I am pretty optimistic that her visit will impact positively to the economy and it is observed that Ms Clinton will be able to suggest the US administration to rectify their policy to secure Pakistani interest. I really like to request the KSE and the regulators to please come forward and introduce some new products and do some road shows for the awareness of the local investors.

Market is bearish for now; Foreign investment still adding more and more to our reserves but we still like to have some institutional buying and control law and order situation in the country to stabilize the market.

Market Possibilities.
• To get out of completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9565.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9395
• Breaking 9250 will enhance the confidence of local investors and might get mutual fund back into buying.
• Minimum weekly closing above 9425 for bull hopes

Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low

9,854
8,768

Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,325 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyer for high returns

Key Levels

9,478
9,395
9,238
9,035
8,891
8,790

Dear Members/Clients

If you are aware of our weekly reports and the morning briefings then I am sure you realized the market high of the last week was exactly at our level which was 9,478 and market recorded 9,476 as a high for the week and this where we recommended the profit taking. And then low was also well supported by our levels. I specifically like to congratulate the traders who followed the AICL, DGKC and OGDC and were able to book the highest return for this week. I really like all of my readers to please come forward and learn the rules of engagement and enhance their trading skills. I am open for all those who really have the commitment towards the goal.


For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders


Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.