Technical Forecast for KSE-100
For the First Week of Oct, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday Oct, 4th 2009
Hi Folks:
Oops; thanks Almighty the volatile week is over, well I am happy for most of my clients who are already off loaded, and availed the opportunity of buying back few scrip on low.
I am still with my last statement that aggressiveness in bulls declined, and we are still under the correctional phase though the Friday bulls run was mainly because of the delay in Client level margining system, it is also been proved that the immense foreign buying wasn’t able to push the bears aside.
I am not looking into a severe bearish trend but I want traders to be prepared for any downside dip and avail the low buy opportunity. Let me tell you the best thing in ongoing trend is intraday correction which is keeping the index stable that will stabilize the market in future.
No trend is established yet, Selling pressure still exist in market closing below 9375 – 9420 from Tuesday to Thursday can bring little panic to the market.
Increasing foreign investment will strengthen the bulls.
Debate over NRO and Kerry Lugar bill can shake the confidence
Key Levels
9724
9648
9554
9440-9432
9305-9315
Caution: Bears are still focused ………Be Careful
Market Last Week Analysis:
Well last week was much volatile and Foreign buying played a vital role in keeping bulls in the ring; as mentioned in last report the aggressiveness of bulls will be low and it is about to loose their control on market.
I am happy for those traders who followed our off loading call earlier to the past week, our further view in our morning briefing was “The current political development and the on going debate on NRO may cause some selling pressure in the market, moreover the new Client Level Margining System will also encourage local investors to off load their positions, though the foreign investors doesn’t seems bothered.
Thursday market was volatile and seems to be controlled by Bears, but I will see its closing still near the bouncing zone. Corporate announcement will play vital role today.
Trading above 9346 will bring bulls back in ring; foreign buying of 2,143,912 USD is an additional support for bulls. Bulls will get more energy over 9441. Closing below 9298 on Friday will appreciate the Bears to control the next week.
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Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
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What about the thought that maybe cash flows (dividends + stock buybacks, as you define them) are so high because stock buybacks are at all time highs - which in turn have been fueled by ultra-low interest rates themselves.
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