Weekly Report for Year Closing Dec. 2009
Well done Bulls
The New Rally about to Begin
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Thursday, Dec. 24th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Market Technically:
KSE-100: Bear’s last wicket down by the amazing spell of bulls.
Congrats for Amazing success on this week trading, and folks tell you it is a great achievement if you make money in a lackluster market and you did.
Market looks fabulous and energetic for the near term future. We might see some resistance around 9,483; once crossing and closing above this level, bulls will be dancing all over.
The good news is market got out of depressive range and it may set new targets for near future. Furthermore the coming week closing will endorse the authenticity of the new rally.
I wish market would not close below 9,428, though it’s not a difficult target, but fewer indicators of market are blinking some selling on Monday. And breaking/closing below 9,315 will recharge the bears. Most of the negative events and political conflicts seem to be absorbed by the market.
Key Levels
9,719
9,591
9,483
9,289
9,170
9,067
Recommendation:
Now last call for investors is to re-arrange their portfolio and gear up for gaining high returns in March 2010. Focused buying is required to achieve the target.
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more than the market buys. Banking, Energy and Oil must be your primary selection. Insurance and Cement sector are already benefiting your capital gain
Recap of past week:
The past week had the amazing levels for our traders as our most of the buy calls honored and I am sure the readers of our reports and morning call realized the accuracy of our key levels in past week.
The ups and downs of the market behavior were monitored accurately and on behalf of these levels we had great buy calls. I was feared of going down from 9,293 but later on buyers along with the institutions manage to close the markets above the expected level, but if you guys remember the morning calls of the past week, that was pretty much updating on positive expectations.
And at the end market gone crazy by breaking most of the critical levels and manage to close in comfortable zone.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Greenback revivifies: FDI and FIPI should serve as cushion to ensure the money-back.
A mammoth piece of liquidity is going to be injected in our liquidity-evicted economy in form of recent IMP tranche of $1.2 billion. It can be seen that Pakistan faced a 37 percent loss in investment by overseas investors in the first five months of this financial year. Thusly, this active liquidity thrust can revitalize our foreign reserves; however, the foreigners’ interests of direct investments in our economy should be sustained, especially considering the sensitive behavior of FIPIs to country’s uncertainty situation. Though FIPIs have notably rebounded this week compared to the last week, the two ‘golden’ drivers of foreign reserves should remain persistent and encouraged in order to uninterruptedly repay the loan. No doubt, some of our high potential sectors are encouragingly playing their role in enticing foreign investments specifically in the recent scenario of shedding foreign investment.
The IMF disbursement, along with first tranche of USD 500 mn under Kerry Lugar Financial Program would put the seasonal spike in external debt servicing burden on a normal footing and thus stabilize the PKR.
As far as the issue of eroding foreign reserves is concerned, Ministry of Finance is considering ingoing into a currency swap agreements with China and Malaysia, according to which these countries will import from us in PKR and we will import our raw material and capital goods from them in Yuan and ringgit respectively. The agreement is yet at its initial stage and it may take some time to become operational by the banks, but it can well contribute in sustaining our greenback reserves, internationally required currency units.
A good move also includes the designing of new investment policy to protect local and foreign investors. According to the policy, customs duty would be reduced from 5-1 percent on capital goods and raw materials. There would be no sales tax and withholding tax on import of machinery. This would help trim down the cost of setting up of industrial units in the country.
This assortment of triumphs should prove to be a positive elicit for our equity market.
On the other face, some rowdy issues include rise in electricity tariffs and gas shortage are severely affecting key industry players. Textile, being the main export participant, is suffering around billion of losses due to the prevalent crisis. Besides, exports under Export Processing Zone (EPZ) have declined by 10 percent during July-November 2009 against last equivalent period.
Forex
Market Trend
Current Bearish
Short term Range Bound
Medium term Bullish with profit taking
Long term Bullish
Technical Highlights:
EUR/USD - Current trend range bound with exhausted Sellers.
The EURUSD made a bottom on last day of its trading now restricting its further fall and I am expecting some upside correction up to 1.4500 levels, and from there you can do short again. Well but this time you are not going too long.
Fewer indicators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair for weekly trade. And in fact I am bullish on pair for near future
I recommend pre planned entries by placing your long and short position as per given calls. It is the beauty of the market you are not required to stick to the screen.
I see stronger support around 1.4010 and 1.4035, and this zone has the bouncing ability too. I see breakout very close, currently pair trading in a range with offensive selling pressure, more possibilities of bullish trend after the breakout.
Long/Buy: Around 1.4324 add double of the first buy around 1.4235 and the stop loss for all positions below 1.4212.
Short: when you see the pair testing 1.4500 and then the next strategy is short around 1.4412 (when 60 minutes candle closes below this level after testing)
Fundamental Highlights:
Expectations are being raised that British economy would finally emerge from recession by the end of the year, but faces a fragile path of slow growth. According to CBI’s chief economic adviser, credit conditions would remain difficult as the banks slowly nurture themselves back to health, consumer spending will be shaped by the need to rebuild savings, and the public sector will soon have to tighten its belt. All three factors will act as headwinds to growth.
The biggest problem weighing on the euro is the sovereign debt crisis in EMU, which took on a new urgency last week. Greece and to a lesser extent Spain, Ireland and Portugal are facing deficits well in excess of the 3% stabilization treaty limits.
For U.S., home sales rose again, albeit moderately. Rebound has also been seen in durable goods orders after decline in October. This shows U.S. economic improvement on modest level.
Key Levels
1.4838
1.4794
1.4748
1.4681
1.4624
1.4581
1.4500
1.4442
1.4402
1.4373
1.4350
1.4316
1.4293
1.4263
1.4223
1.4070
1.3878
To receive live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
High Risk Investment
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Saturday, December 26, 2009
The New Rally about to Begin
Last Report for 2009
Well done Bulls
The New Rally about to Begin
Well done Bulls
The New Rally about to Begin
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Thursday, Dec. 24th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Market Technically:
KSE-100: Bear’s last wicket down by the amazing spell of bulls.
Congrats for Amazing success on this week trading, and folks tell you it is a great achievement if you make money in a lackluster market and you did.
Market looks fabulous and energetic for the near term future. We might see some resistance around 9,483; once crossing and closing above this level, bulls will be dancing all over.
The good news is market got out of depressive range and it may set new targets for near future. Furthermore the coming week closing will endorse the authenticity of the new rally.
I wish market would not close below 9,428, though it’s not a difficult target, but fewer indicators of market are blinking some selling on Monday. And breaking/closing below 9,315 will recharge the bears. Most of the negative events and political conflicts seem to be absorbed by the market.
Key Levels
9,719
9,591
9,483
9,289
9,170
9,067
Recommendation:
Now last call for investors is to re-arrange their portfolio and gear up for gaining high returns in March 2010. Focused buying is required to achieve the target.
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more than the market buys. Banking, Energy and Oil must be your primary selection. Insurance and Cement sector are already benefiting your capital gain
Recap of past week:
The past week had the amazing levels for our traders as our most of the buy calls honored and I am sure the readers of our reports and morning call realized the accuracy of our key levels in past week.
The ups and downs of the market behavior were monitored accurately and on behalf of these levels we had great buy calls. I was feared of going down from 9,293 but later on buyers along with the institutions manage to close the markets above the expected level, but if you guys remember the morning calls of the past week, that was pretty much updating on positive expectations.
And at the end market gone crazy by breaking most of the critical levels and manage to close in comfortable zone.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Greenback revivifies: FDI and FIPI should serve as cushion to ensure the money-back.
A mammoth piece of liquidity is going to be injected in our liquidity-evicted economy in form of recent IMP tranche of $1.2 billion. It can be seen that Pakistan faced a 37 percent loss in investment by overseas investors in the first five months of this financial year. Thusly, this active liquidity thrust can revitalize our foreign reserves; however, the foreigners’ interests of direct investments in our economy should be sustained, especially considering the sensitive behavior of FIPIs to country’s uncertainty situation. Though FIPIs have notably rebounded this week compared to the last week, the two ‘golden’ drivers of foreign reserves should remain persistent and encouraged in order to uninterruptedly repay the loan. No doubt, some of our high potential sectors are encouragingly playing their role in enticing foreign investments specifically in the recent scenario of shedding foreign investment.
The IMF disbursement, along with first tranche of USD 500 mn under Kerry Lugar Financial Program would put the seasonal spike in external debt servicing burden on a normal footing and thus stabilize the PKR.
As far as the issue of eroding foreign reserves is concerned, Ministry of Finance is considering ingoing into a currency swap agreements with China and Malaysia, according to which these countries will import from us in PKR and we will import our raw material and capital goods from them in Yuan and ringgit respectively. The agreement is yet at its initial stage and it may take some time to become operational by the banks, but it can well contribute in sustaining our greenback reserves, internationally required currency units.
A good move also includes the designing of new investment policy to protect local and foreign investors. According to the policy, customs duty would be reduced from 5-1 percent on capital goods and raw materials. There would be no sales tax and withholding tax on import of machinery. This would help trim down the cost of setting up of industrial units in the country.
This assortment of triumphs should prove to be a positive elicit for our equity market.
On the other face, some rowdy issues include rise in electricity tariffs and gas shortage are severely affecting key industry players. Textile, being the main export participant, is suffering around billion of losses due to the prevalent crisis. Besides, exports under Export Processing Zone (EPZ) have declined by 10 percent during July-November 2009 against last equivalent period.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Striving bulls Losing hope in Karachi Stock Exchange
Weekly Report for 4th Week of Dec. 2009
“Striving bulls Losing hope”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday, December 19, 2009
10:15pm
KSE-100: Trend Bearish – Pressures hitting from all directions
The utmost daring activities of bulls resisted strongly by bears. My given feared zone resulted with strong selling pressure and pushes the bulls back onto lower limits. Though bulls recorded their highest level of skill by testing our level twice in past week.
Market currently in bearish trend with the aggravating bear’s pressure, as per current scenario I don’t see market going above 9293 but have more room in downward direction, tell you breaking the 8,815 will bring real disaster to the market.
9,165 have bouncing capacity and we may see some support between 9,165 and 9,114. Breaking this zone will take market to 8,992. Bulls will get back in the market with power around 8,950.
Recommendation:
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more then the market buys. Banking, Insurance and Cement sector can give some gain in this week. Focusing on given level will give you the chance of capital gain in a bearish market.
Recap:
That’s true the utmost daring activities of bulls recorded this week against the immense selling pressure, and as I warned about the feared resistance zone, that act strongly and make bulls getting on back foot. Thanks to almighty we did not see much of terror events in the past week, but as I mentioned in one of my morning call that, I am not convinced with the 250 positive points on Monday.
And if you noticed that proved in following days, and I also like to remind my friends about my level of 9,248, continuously three days I was warning all of my readers to please consider this level for your offloading decisions.
I think now it is easy to realize, but remember time never returns, so it is good to analyze your decision before execution.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
KSE: Liquidity-driven market fundamentals are waiting for recouped investors’ buoyancy
Versatile ragbags of foreign investment initiatives ahead are making their way effectively to infuse liquidity in different untapped sectors. China, U.S., Korea, and France have profound interest in capitalizing our banking and power sector. Although political uncertainty and worst law and order situation has rigorously added ‘red’ in investors’ portfolio, some attractive fundamentals have potent enough to restore bull-power of our ‘diffident’ investors. The liquidity-bound initiatives also include monetary ease off at the top of the list, which would not only relax the credit cost of banks but also of the scrips to which banks are exposed. Relaxation in FSV benefit and higher banking spread would be a strong catalyst for banks. These initiatives would lead to bottoming out the earning duck in the financial results of CY09. To boost investors’ sentiment, meliorated credit ratings from key ratings agencies and ADB’s forecast of economic growth to 3 percent in FY10, on the back of upcoming public expenditure program, are flattering go-aheads. This would facilitate in reaching GDP growth to 3 percent this fiscal year. Although power crisis is persistent, forthcoming power projects would well overcome its burden.
Sector Highlights: Welcoming the fresh rally of result announcements
Past quarter corporate earnings across all sectors were not uniform and the trend represented significant divergence, though overall July-Sept financial reporting season rounded off with 7 per cent growth in earnings, likened with the last year matching period. For this quarter, same pattern of sector-specific performance may remain, though some sectors are well expected to be added among the high-earning ones. Banks and few insurance and fertilizer scrip are among them. On monthly basis, OMCs achieved remarkable offtake numerals in October. However, auto sector depicted seasonal decline. Textile, refineries, and cement can also linger in depression.
External front: Rupee can grind to a halt in the wrestle of inflows and outflows
Political uncertainty has also influenced foreign investments recently, apart of local one. FDI has been dropped to 52 percent during first five months of FY10. Rupee has also gone under pressure as dollar demand has rushed. Next, SBP’s move to transfer oil import payment to private sector has brought about only one-time southward trend in rupee, though it would get stable anon, at least in inter-bank market. Besides, although narrowing of CAD to $1.35bn in July-Nov is a good feat, it is backed by lower exports and imports, which reveals hampering of employment. Rupee has thus got stuck in the fight of inflows and outflows initiatives. We may enjoy liquidity through the next IMF tranche of $1.2 billion but it would later on put bonus pressure on rupee at repayment time. On the other side, Upcoming FDI in our unexploited sectors would be a ‘positive’ inflow for our external balance.
Technical Highlights:
EUR/USD
The pair still under immense selling pressure with the continuous bearish trend, but here I suggest my readers to start doing the profit taking of their shorts. Currently it is not advisable to long positions for holding, the pair is going to set new structure, it may give chance to short more in pair, short term possibilities exist for both long and short by honoring the given key levels.
For now I recommend long for short term profitability, trading below 1.4333 will bring more bears into the ring, possible profit taking around 1.4480. Once trading started over 1.4480, it will stabilize the pair for upside move. 1.4437 can also play as weaker resistance, before testing the 1.4480.
Fundamental Highlights:
U.S. economy recommenced growth in the third quarter, ending four straight quarters of decline. The euro zone recorded its first quarter of economic growth in more than a year in the July-September period. Given that the recovery in both regions has been largely driven by government stimulus, there have been fears of a double-dip recession – a scenario where the economy perks up temporarily only to contract again. Thus, IMF seems this recovery as fragile. However, labor markets have generally lagged the recovery. On weekly basis, CPI & PPI rates turned back in positive territory, industrial production increased and housing rebounds after a huge fall, in U.S. In Europe, German IFO Business Sentiment reached at 17 month highs. Euro zone’s October trade balance rose by 57 percent, however CA surplus dropped by 8 percent. Looking ahead Russian Nov Unemployment Rate may have reached to 7.8% and Russian Nov Retail Sales growth may have been dropped to 0.7%.
To receive live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
High Risk Investment
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
“Striving bulls Losing hope”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday, December 19, 2009
10:15pm
KSE-100: Trend Bearish – Pressures hitting from all directions
The utmost daring activities of bulls resisted strongly by bears. My given feared zone resulted with strong selling pressure and pushes the bulls back onto lower limits. Though bulls recorded their highest level of skill by testing our level twice in past week.
Market currently in bearish trend with the aggravating bear’s pressure, as per current scenario I don’t see market going above 9293 but have more room in downward direction, tell you breaking the 8,815 will bring real disaster to the market.
9,165 have bouncing capacity and we may see some support between 9,165 and 9,114. Breaking this zone will take market to 8,992. Bulls will get back in the market with power around 8,950.
Recommendation:
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more then the market buys. Banking, Insurance and Cement sector can give some gain in this week. Focusing on given level will give you the chance of capital gain in a bearish market.
Recap:
That’s true the utmost daring activities of bulls recorded this week against the immense selling pressure, and as I warned about the feared resistance zone, that act strongly and make bulls getting on back foot. Thanks to almighty we did not see much of terror events in the past week, but as I mentioned in one of my morning call that, I am not convinced with the 250 positive points on Monday.
And if you noticed that proved in following days, and I also like to remind my friends about my level of 9,248, continuously three days I was warning all of my readers to please consider this level for your offloading decisions.
I think now it is easy to realize, but remember time never returns, so it is good to analyze your decision before execution.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
KSE: Liquidity-driven market fundamentals are waiting for recouped investors’ buoyancy
Versatile ragbags of foreign investment initiatives ahead are making their way effectively to infuse liquidity in different untapped sectors. China, U.S., Korea, and France have profound interest in capitalizing our banking and power sector. Although political uncertainty and worst law and order situation has rigorously added ‘red’ in investors’ portfolio, some attractive fundamentals have potent enough to restore bull-power of our ‘diffident’ investors. The liquidity-bound initiatives also include monetary ease off at the top of the list, which would not only relax the credit cost of banks but also of the scrips to which banks are exposed. Relaxation in FSV benefit and higher banking spread would be a strong catalyst for banks. These initiatives would lead to bottoming out the earning duck in the financial results of CY09. To boost investors’ sentiment, meliorated credit ratings from key ratings agencies and ADB’s forecast of economic growth to 3 percent in FY10, on the back of upcoming public expenditure program, are flattering go-aheads. This would facilitate in reaching GDP growth to 3 percent this fiscal year. Although power crisis is persistent, forthcoming power projects would well overcome its burden.
Sector Highlights: Welcoming the fresh rally of result announcements
Past quarter corporate earnings across all sectors were not uniform and the trend represented significant divergence, though overall July-Sept financial reporting season rounded off with 7 per cent growth in earnings, likened with the last year matching period. For this quarter, same pattern of sector-specific performance may remain, though some sectors are well expected to be added among the high-earning ones. Banks and few insurance and fertilizer scrip are among them. On monthly basis, OMCs achieved remarkable offtake numerals in October. However, auto sector depicted seasonal decline. Textile, refineries, and cement can also linger in depression.
External front: Rupee can grind to a halt in the wrestle of inflows and outflows
Political uncertainty has also influenced foreign investments recently, apart of local one. FDI has been dropped to 52 percent during first five months of FY10. Rupee has also gone under pressure as dollar demand has rushed. Next, SBP’s move to transfer oil import payment to private sector has brought about only one-time southward trend in rupee, though it would get stable anon, at least in inter-bank market. Besides, although narrowing of CAD to $1.35bn in July-Nov is a good feat, it is backed by lower exports and imports, which reveals hampering of employment. Rupee has thus got stuck in the fight of inflows and outflows initiatives. We may enjoy liquidity through the next IMF tranche of $1.2 billion but it would later on put bonus pressure on rupee at repayment time. On the other side, Upcoming FDI in our unexploited sectors would be a ‘positive’ inflow for our external balance.
Technical Highlights:
EUR/USD
The pair still under immense selling pressure with the continuous bearish trend, but here I suggest my readers to start doing the profit taking of their shorts. Currently it is not advisable to long positions for holding, the pair is going to set new structure, it may give chance to short more in pair, short term possibilities exist for both long and short by honoring the given key levels.
For now I recommend long for short term profitability, trading below 1.4333 will bring more bears into the ring, possible profit taking around 1.4480. Once trading started over 1.4480, it will stabilize the pair for upside move. 1.4437 can also play as weaker resistance, before testing the 1.4480.
Fundamental Highlights:
U.S. economy recommenced growth in the third quarter, ending four straight quarters of decline. The euro zone recorded its first quarter of economic growth in more than a year in the July-September period. Given that the recovery in both regions has been largely driven by government stimulus, there have been fears of a double-dip recession – a scenario where the economy perks up temporarily only to contract again. Thus, IMF seems this recovery as fragile. However, labor markets have generally lagged the recovery. On weekly basis, CPI & PPI rates turned back in positive territory, industrial production increased and housing rebounds after a huge fall, in U.S. In Europe, German IFO Business Sentiment reached at 17 month highs. Euro zone’s October trade balance rose by 57 percent, however CA surplus dropped by 8 percent. Looking ahead Russian Nov Unemployment Rate may have reached to 7.8% and Russian Nov Retail Sales growth may have been dropped to 0.7%.
To receive live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
High Risk Investment
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange
Morning Call for Tuesday the 15th Dec. 2009
“Striving Bulls kicked Bears out of ring”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Monday December, 14th, 2009
KSE-100: Just got Bullish
The utmost daring activities resulted in kicking bears out of ring, sustaining 9,000 levels last week supported bulls to turn the upside down.
The fear, the depression gradually going far now, and the local investors gearing up for new rides, as I was telling you guys not to forget the last Qtr expectation, well the Dubai bail out plan and rallies in global market is not that important in my personal view.
In my last report I mentioned the rising early indication of bullish trend, that comes true today and now for the second day of the week I am not really convince of having same energy in bulls. I am feared of zone between 9.297 and 9,355. This zone can be the most resisting area for the market.
For bulls I would say trading over 9,275 all day will be good, and the new comers must think of their stop loss around 9,248.
For Medium term Investors (Clients) only
I like to congratulate our clients for accurately having their buys on targeted price of Banking, Fertilizer and Insurance sector sent on 6th, November, 19th, November and 9th, December respectively. So, get ready to calculate gains on your capital since some of our recommended scrip are very close to their first offloading target. Please do not hesitate to ask for further details on your portfolios.
Thanks and regards
Khalid Saifuddin
0345-276 8680
021-3432 2359
To receive live calls on KSE-100 Scrip and EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
“Striving Bulls kicked Bears out of ring”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Monday December, 14th, 2009
KSE-100: Just got Bullish
The utmost daring activities resulted in kicking bears out of ring, sustaining 9,000 levels last week supported bulls to turn the upside down.
The fear, the depression gradually going far now, and the local investors gearing up for new rides, as I was telling you guys not to forget the last Qtr expectation, well the Dubai bail out plan and rallies in global market is not that important in my personal view.
In my last report I mentioned the rising early indication of bullish trend, that comes true today and now for the second day of the week I am not really convince of having same energy in bulls. I am feared of zone between 9.297 and 9,355. This zone can be the most resisting area for the market.
For bulls I would say trading over 9,275 all day will be good, and the new comers must think of their stop loss around 9,248.
For Medium term Investors (Clients) only
I like to congratulate our clients for accurately having their buys on targeted price of Banking, Fertilizer and Insurance sector sent on 6th, November, 19th, November and 9th, December respectively. So, get ready to calculate gains on your capital since some of our recommended scrip are very close to their first offloading target. Please do not hesitate to ask for further details on your portfolios.
Thanks and regards
Khalid Saifuddin
0345-276 8680
021-3432 2359
To receive live calls on KSE-100 Scrip and EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange "Forecast for 2nd Week of Dec"
KSE-100 “Elevating Fear in a Falling Market”
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
KSE-100
Market gone thru a depressive week with really low volumes, most of the expected danger was already mentioned in earlier report and posts; more range bound activities expected with the depression, few little upward moves will not open avenues for buyers. Now we have more indications for down trend. The last Qtr corporate results may support the market.
9,130 to 9,185 can be a major resisting zone for the market, crossing this zone with the bull power will give confidence to the investors.
The impact of Dubai crisis in global market is not over. The investors required to focus precisely on foreign investor’s position because the first week of December recorded the outflow of 41% of November holdings, so if this continues then the market will definitely get into complete bearish trend from the current range bound activities. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror wasn’t able to support market and at the end Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and the fear of security will impact more in near future. Increase in trader’s participation may strengthen the market little bit. I see US will be using the Weapon of funds inflow to strengthen Pakistani administration anarchy, as we get more inflows after the series of drone attacks. IMF also preparing to review on 12th, I am still wishing for have leverage back to the market, all these may charge bulls a little bit
Recommendation:
Traders must be very picky in present scenario, OIL, Fertilizer and Energy sector will be a good choice for trading, and Insurance can also benefit to small lot traders.
Recap of past week:
In our last report it was clearly indicated about the danger. We also highlighted the major concern which can affect the market and they did, at the end market closed in danger zone with shrunken volumes and range bound activities for the week
As it was mentioned earlier that Market currently at decisive point and the issues like NRO, 17th amendment, possible reshuffling in Cabinet, Sindh Governorship, burning Baluchistan, the corporate circular debts, industrial crisis, power shortage and upcoming gas shortage will keep the investors away from the market. Thanks to almighty we do not have the direct impact of global markets which are affected by Dubai crisis. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror may help market but the Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and ultimately the week concluded with depression
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Sunday, Dec. 6th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Our financially globalize equity market is indigent amid flagging foreign investors’ confidence.
After rewarding optimistic reception to monetary policy and ricocheting economic indicators, waning confidence of foreign investors in the course of recent Dubai financial crisis is continued to lead our equity markets to an oversold position. KSE index hit hard along with other equity indices worldwide. The index is now ready to turn and stay red following any signal about pressures on it. Although Pakistan banks' exposure to Dubai crisis is within manageable margins but eroded risk appetite can influence FPI that has been the key driver of KSE.
While visualizing medium and long-term outlook, some favorable developments are in pipeline. Pak-German BIT is one of them. The pact is not only providing insurance against social and political risks of Pakistan but also paving the way for its unrealized investment potential, exploiting its untapped resource base, and enhancing financial assistance. This unrealized potential has also been realized by some other nations which are geared up to access the potential through different pacts. Mounting export of our skilled manpower is also adding on the imminent optimism of the country on the back of increasing remittances. Another financial assistance of $500 million is being assured by World Bank to facilitate the economy to get back on track.
In terms of specific sectors, power sector shows northward outlook of its trend at KSE. IPPs are chief beneficiary in this case which ensure decent returns and high earnings certainty. Upcoming expansion projects would also boost the sector’s performance. But on the other side, sharp hike in gas prices by 18 percent are depressing fundamentals of textile and cement sector. Increase in prices of cotton and its supply-shortage are further disturbing textile sector in its critical budding stage of recovery. Plus, on going circular debt issue is raising liquidity concerns for OMCs, Refineries, and IPPs. This may attack the supply chain of oil to IPPs.
So, a mix bag of optimistic and pessimistic sector-wise performance is taking its position. To reap the fruit of forthcoming opportunities, foreign portfolio investment should spring back on their track to recuperate the country’s risk premium and have the market rally around the track where investors can re-envisage uphill trend.
FOREX
EUR/USD
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Technical Highlights:
USD against EURO climb after the news for the Non Farm Payrolls, and it never looked back. U.S. Economy only lost 11,000 jobs as it was estimated 108,000 off. The EUR/USD pair reacted suddenly and moved 200 pips in downside on last day of the week, later on supported at the strongest support. This bounce off of the strong support level could provide an excellent opportunity to get into buy of EURO targeting 1.4910 level. (we already given a buy call on Friday)
And if the pair breaks the level and hit our stop loss then we will see a major bearish move, currently pair go up, then medium term selling pressure expected long term is Bullish
Fundamental Highlights: Strong capital positions seem to dodge the bullet.
Gone the threats of hurting from world’s financial crisis; recent Dubai debt crisis has swapped the same threatening spot to hurt financial markets, despite recent and imminent signs of economic revitalization. Different regions, from Asia to Europe, have exposure to Dubai debt, though impact of Dubai debt crisis is country-specific; not the region one. Fundamentally, currencies of U.S. and Euro zone should be least affected by it. U.K, being one of the high exposed countries, has not much currency-wise attachments to EUR. However, banks of these nations are ready to dodge the bullet on the back of their strong capital positions. Other highly exposed nations include U.A.E as well as Dubai itself. Over and above, the impact of investors’ sentiments shouldn’t be dubbed under fundamental upshots. These sentiments are not only impinging on Forex but also on equity markets throughout the countries of different regions. What can be complimentary now, is the behavior of investors who are gearing up to divest from Dubai markets and invest in other burgeoning markets where news flow is playing its part lucratively to defend the respective countries in terms of having least exposure and thus being least concerned.
For further assistance and live calls on EUR/USD you are always welcome to contact me @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This commentary, key levels and news are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
KSE-100
Market gone thru a depressive week with really low volumes, most of the expected danger was already mentioned in earlier report and posts; more range bound activities expected with the depression, few little upward moves will not open avenues for buyers. Now we have more indications for down trend. The last Qtr corporate results may support the market.
9,130 to 9,185 can be a major resisting zone for the market, crossing this zone with the bull power will give confidence to the investors.
The impact of Dubai crisis in global market is not over. The investors required to focus precisely on foreign investor’s position because the first week of December recorded the outflow of 41% of November holdings, so if this continues then the market will definitely get into complete bearish trend from the current range bound activities. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror wasn’t able to support market and at the end Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and the fear of security will impact more in near future. Increase in trader’s participation may strengthen the market little bit. I see US will be using the Weapon of funds inflow to strengthen Pakistani administration anarchy, as we get more inflows after the series of drone attacks. IMF also preparing to review on 12th, I am still wishing for have leverage back to the market, all these may charge bulls a little bit
Recommendation:
Traders must be very picky in present scenario, OIL, Fertilizer and Energy sector will be a good choice for trading, and Insurance can also benefit to small lot traders.
Recap of past week:
In our last report it was clearly indicated about the danger. We also highlighted the major concern which can affect the market and they did, at the end market closed in danger zone with shrunken volumes and range bound activities for the week
As it was mentioned earlier that Market currently at decisive point and the issues like NRO, 17th amendment, possible reshuffling in Cabinet, Sindh Governorship, burning Baluchistan, the corporate circular debts, industrial crisis, power shortage and upcoming gas shortage will keep the investors away from the market. Thanks to almighty we do not have the direct impact of global markets which are affected by Dubai crisis. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror may help market but the Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and ultimately the week concluded with depression
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Sunday, Dec. 6th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Our financially globalize equity market is indigent amid flagging foreign investors’ confidence.
After rewarding optimistic reception to monetary policy and ricocheting economic indicators, waning confidence of foreign investors in the course of recent Dubai financial crisis is continued to lead our equity markets to an oversold position. KSE index hit hard along with other equity indices worldwide. The index is now ready to turn and stay red following any signal about pressures on it. Although Pakistan banks' exposure to Dubai crisis is within manageable margins but eroded risk appetite can influence FPI that has been the key driver of KSE.
While visualizing medium and long-term outlook, some favorable developments are in pipeline. Pak-German BIT is one of them. The pact is not only providing insurance against social and political risks of Pakistan but also paving the way for its unrealized investment potential, exploiting its untapped resource base, and enhancing financial assistance. This unrealized potential has also been realized by some other nations which are geared up to access the potential through different pacts. Mounting export of our skilled manpower is also adding on the imminent optimism of the country on the back of increasing remittances. Another financial assistance of $500 million is being assured by World Bank to facilitate the economy to get back on track.
In terms of specific sectors, power sector shows northward outlook of its trend at KSE. IPPs are chief beneficiary in this case which ensure decent returns and high earnings certainty. Upcoming expansion projects would also boost the sector’s performance. But on the other side, sharp hike in gas prices by 18 percent are depressing fundamentals of textile and cement sector. Increase in prices of cotton and its supply-shortage are further disturbing textile sector in its critical budding stage of recovery. Plus, on going circular debt issue is raising liquidity concerns for OMCs, Refineries, and IPPs. This may attack the supply chain of oil to IPPs.
So, a mix bag of optimistic and pessimistic sector-wise performance is taking its position. To reap the fruit of forthcoming opportunities, foreign portfolio investment should spring back on their track to recuperate the country’s risk premium and have the market rally around the track where investors can re-envisage uphill trend.
FOREX
EUR/USD
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Technical Highlights:
USD against EURO climb after the news for the Non Farm Payrolls, and it never looked back. U.S. Economy only lost 11,000 jobs as it was estimated 108,000 off. The EUR/USD pair reacted suddenly and moved 200 pips in downside on last day of the week, later on supported at the strongest support. This bounce off of the strong support level could provide an excellent opportunity to get into buy of EURO targeting 1.4910 level. (we already given a buy call on Friday)
And if the pair breaks the level and hit our stop loss then we will see a major bearish move, currently pair go up, then medium term selling pressure expected long term is Bullish
Fundamental Highlights: Strong capital positions seem to dodge the bullet.
Gone the threats of hurting from world’s financial crisis; recent Dubai debt crisis has swapped the same threatening spot to hurt financial markets, despite recent and imminent signs of economic revitalization. Different regions, from Asia to Europe, have exposure to Dubai debt, though impact of Dubai debt crisis is country-specific; not the region one. Fundamentally, currencies of U.S. and Euro zone should be least affected by it. U.K, being one of the high exposed countries, has not much currency-wise attachments to EUR. However, banks of these nations are ready to dodge the bullet on the back of their strong capital positions. Other highly exposed nations include U.A.E as well as Dubai itself. Over and above, the impact of investors’ sentiments shouldn’t be dubbed under fundamental upshots. These sentiments are not only impinging on Forex but also on equity markets throughout the countries of different regions. What can be complimentary now, is the behavior of investors who are gearing up to divest from Dubai markets and invest in other burgeoning markets where news flow is playing its part lucratively to defend the respective countries in terms of having least exposure and thus being least concerned.
For further assistance and live calls on EUR/USD you are always welcome to contact me @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This commentary, key levels and news are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 23, 2009
KSE-100 Feared Bulls bringing Bears back in the ring
KSE-100 Feared Bulls bringing Bears back in the ring
High Volatility expected with low volume in early hours
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Monday, 23rd, Nov, 2009
Once again market getting out of its upward channel, yesterday market exactly closed around the critical level, and it was also observed the market tested the third given support.
All these are happening because of the present uncertainty due to NRO and the coming monetary policy, though we are not looking into any trouble making monetary policy. But investors shy to hold the positions.
Foreign investors still buying positions, just today their net buying was 865,507 USD and Mutual Funds were in buying too, they scored net buying of 889,836 USD, the shrinkage of volume added depression to the investors, though they were having an opportunity of buying their positions on cheaper price.
Now from here technically market getting into the bearish phase, the only hope for the market is to trade in positive zone today and closing above 9,247 will bring some hopes for Bulls.
Key Levels
9,425
9,368
9,320
9,286
9,247
9,216
9,176
9,144
9,119
9,086
9,037
8,990
Recommendations
Trade on key levels with the strict stop losses, market has more chances of going down from here, focus on your target buy.
Call for further assistance 021-3432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
High Volatility expected with low volume in early hours
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Monday, 23rd, Nov, 2009
Once again market getting out of its upward channel, yesterday market exactly closed around the critical level, and it was also observed the market tested the third given support.
All these are happening because of the present uncertainty due to NRO and the coming monetary policy, though we are not looking into any trouble making monetary policy. But investors shy to hold the positions.
Foreign investors still buying positions, just today their net buying was 865,507 USD and Mutual Funds were in buying too, they scored net buying of 889,836 USD, the shrinkage of volume added depression to the investors, though they were having an opportunity of buying their positions on cheaper price.
Now from here technically market getting into the bearish phase, the only hope for the market is to trade in positive zone today and closing above 9,247 will bring some hopes for Bulls.
Key Levels
9,425
9,368
9,320
9,286
9,247
9,216
9,176
9,144
9,119
9,086
9,037
8,990
Recommendations
Trade on key levels with the strict stop losses, market has more chances of going down from here, focus on your target buy.
Call for further assistance 021-3432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I am happy for all those who accurately followed the live calls and morning briefing, Shukar Alhumdulillah; despite of volatility market made possible for the day traders to book their returns. I hope you guys now realized why I was not encouraging the banking sector all week, likewise the performance of Cement sector. But tell you the securities performance was little weird.
I see comfortable position on political side, though we did not see any development, but government gaining confidence, the opposition once again on back foot.
The New government formation in Afghanistan made Pakistan more important in region. Leverage product on its way, government comfortably raised the power tariff.
Currently NFC award meetings enhanced the brotherhood among the provinces, now the next meeting in Lahore will bring some positive results.
Now the 9,425 will be giving resistance to the market and once breaking this level, then we will be having dancing Bulls everywhere. This week we achieved some of target buys for the last quarter portfolio.
On the other hand breaking 9,229 may bring Bears back in ring. So far the FIPI and the local institution supported market by buying new positions and I am sure this support will be continued as most of the scrip still trading on discount rate.
Recommendation:
Market is in Bullish phase, it is required to be specific on your scrip selection. Please follow the morning call and our key levels for your trades.
Key Levels
9662
9572
9484
9425
9229
9123
8952
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
Foreign-awarded investment appetite should redress local threats’ upshot.
Cross-border stream of equity investments is portraying mount in financial globalization. The increasing foreign reserves coupled with improved appetite for foreign investors to invest in our capital markets would help reduce the country’s risk premium and so the cost of capital. This in turn should prop up local investors to invest in money-spinning projects and thus further boost the performance of capital market. In part of our banking sector, loan portfolios are apt to recuperate in forthcoming quarters, primarily in correspondence to the risk-avert attitude of banks toward fresh lending. Though the rebound is still at its infant stage and can witness sector’s depression on account of some prevalent factors, SBP’s monetary-freeing initiative would be a favorable driver for fresh banking rally. However, the upcoming threat for our already ramshackle industry and trade is looming in form of hike in power tariff and surging imported inflation. At local level, SPI has also increased not only for the lowest income group by 1.18 percent but also for combined group by 0.92 percent on weekly basis, bullying superfluous push in consumption levels. Threat of social insecurity is also diverting FDI towards foreign aids pushing the country under foreign dependencies. This calls for proper coordination among fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies as well as control in political and social uncertainty to at least balance the economy in severe slam stage. Until these initiatives, foreign portfolio investments and softening monetary condition should alleviate the outcomes of these threats to some extent leastways.
We congratulate our clients that our target buy levels given in Commercial Banking Report on Nov. 5 have been hit.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I hope you might have profitably traded with our accurately tested buying calls.
Pair rotation glimpsed.
Slow revival of U.S. economy signals going on rally but volatility may take its toll.
After shaking off an aborted rally aloft, Euro deflated against dollar, followed by downside in European equity markets on account of an array of second-rate corporate news and commodity price declines in coupled with revised OECD GDP forecasts. Rebound in dollar was driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s lashing comments regarding implications of changes in the value of the dollar as well as by interest rate cut for extended period.
Going forward, U.S. economic indicators depict modest recovery owing to little rise in retail auto sales, industrial production and housing. This slightly raised core inflation. Yet, the pace of growth seems too slow to keep the rotation. Unemployment is forecasted to be sub-par for at least first two quarters of the coming year. The unemployment may further bring about credit risks for consumer and real estate debt. Interest rate cut and fiscal spending are expected to settle at the same track. However, upcoming mid-term elections in 2010 would squirt volatility and hence interest rates and dollar would prone to political pressures on Fed and vagaries of foreign central bank’s support for the dollar.
Trend: Sideways – empowering Bears (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
Recommendation: Enter with Short and Follow the key levels (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.5000 and 1.4845. The selling pressure continuously pushing down the EURO, though bulls are striving hard to get back into game; very soon we are going to see the breakout in pair. Intraday possibilities become narrow; the short trades will be appreciated.
Target your short around 1.4845 and if you trail your stop loss then you can drag your target up to 1.4780.
I don’t see much of hopes for bullish sentiment in short term; you may see some retracement of the trend. Well I am more concentrating on short term trades to benefit most of the day traders.
Extract from Successful Calls Last Week
Symbol Action Short Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48546 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 21.6
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48537 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 22.5
EUR/USD S 1.49126 1.48846 11/17/2009 5:19 11/17/2009 7:57 28
EUR/USD S 1.48783 1.48308 11/20/2009 5:49 11/20/2009 7:07 47.5
EUR/USD S 1.48736 1.48308 11/20/2009 6:01 11/20/2009 7:07 42.8
Symbol Action Buy Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD B 1.4913 1.49227 11/20/2009 1:57 11/20/2009 2:04 9.7
EUR/USD B 1.48135 1.48235 11/20/2009 7:09 11/20/2009 7:12 10
To receive further live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us.
s
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I am happy for all those who accurately followed the live calls and morning briefing, Shukar Alhumdulillah; despite of volatility market made possible for the day traders to book their returns. I hope you guys now realized why I was not encouraging the banking sector all week, likewise the performance of Cement sector. But tell you the securities performance was little weird.
I see comfortable position on political side, though we did not see any development, but government gaining confidence, the opposition once again on back foot.
The New government formation in Afghanistan made Pakistan more important in region. Leverage product on its way, government comfortably raised the power tariff.
Currently NFC award meetings enhanced the brotherhood among the provinces, now the next meeting in Lahore will bring some positive results.
Now the 9,425 will be giving resistance to the market and once breaking this level, then we will be having dancing Bulls everywhere. This week we achieved some of target buys for the last quarter portfolio.
On the other hand breaking 9,229 may bring Bears back in ring. So far the FIPI and the local institution supported market by buying new positions and I am sure this support will be continued as most of the scrip still trading on discount rate.
Recommendation:
Market is in Bullish phase, it is required to be specific on your scrip selection. Please follow the morning call and our key levels for your trades.
Key Levels
9662
9572
9484
9425
9229
9123
8952
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
Foreign-awarded investment appetite should redress local threats’ upshot.
Cross-border stream of equity investments is portraying mount in financial globalization. The increasing foreign reserves coupled with improved appetite for foreign investors to invest in our capital markets would help reduce the country’s risk premium and so the cost of capital. This in turn should prop up local investors to invest in money-spinning projects and thus further boost the performance of capital market. In part of our banking sector, loan portfolios are apt to recuperate in forthcoming quarters, primarily in correspondence to the risk-avert attitude of banks toward fresh lending. Though the rebound is still at its infant stage and can witness sector’s depression on account of some prevalent factors, SBP’s monetary-freeing initiative would be a favorable driver for fresh banking rally. However, the upcoming threat for our already ramshackle industry and trade is looming in form of hike in power tariff and surging imported inflation. At local level, SPI has also increased not only for the lowest income group by 1.18 percent but also for combined group by 0.92 percent on weekly basis, bullying superfluous push in consumption levels. Threat of social insecurity is also diverting FDI towards foreign aids pushing the country under foreign dependencies. This calls for proper coordination among fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies as well as control in political and social uncertainty to at least balance the economy in severe slam stage. Until these initiatives, foreign portfolio investments and softening monetary condition should alleviate the outcomes of these threats to some extent leastways.
We congratulate our clients that our target buy levels given in Commercial Banking Report on Nov. 5 have been hit.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I hope you might have profitably traded with our accurately tested buying calls.
Pair rotation glimpsed.
Slow revival of U.S. economy signals going on rally but volatility may take its toll.
After shaking off an aborted rally aloft, Euro deflated against dollar, followed by downside in European equity markets on account of an array of second-rate corporate news and commodity price declines in coupled with revised OECD GDP forecasts. Rebound in dollar was driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s lashing comments regarding implications of changes in the value of the dollar as well as by interest rate cut for extended period.
Going forward, U.S. economic indicators depict modest recovery owing to little rise in retail auto sales, industrial production and housing. This slightly raised core inflation. Yet, the pace of growth seems too slow to keep the rotation. Unemployment is forecasted to be sub-par for at least first two quarters of the coming year. The unemployment may further bring about credit risks for consumer and real estate debt. Interest rate cut and fiscal spending are expected to settle at the same track. However, upcoming mid-term elections in 2010 would squirt volatility and hence interest rates and dollar would prone to political pressures on Fed and vagaries of foreign central bank’s support for the dollar.
Trend: Sideways – empowering Bears (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
Recommendation: Enter with Short and Follow the key levels (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.5000 and 1.4845. The selling pressure continuously pushing down the EURO, though bulls are striving hard to get back into game; very soon we are going to see the breakout in pair. Intraday possibilities become narrow; the short trades will be appreciated.
Target your short around 1.4845 and if you trail your stop loss then you can drag your target up to 1.4780.
I don’t see much of hopes for bullish sentiment in short term; you may see some retracement of the trend. Well I am more concentrating on short term trades to benefit most of the day traders.
Extract from Successful Calls Last Week
Symbol Action Short Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48546 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 21.6
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48537 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 22.5
EUR/USD S 1.49126 1.48846 11/17/2009 5:19 11/17/2009 7:57 28
EUR/USD S 1.48783 1.48308 11/20/2009 5:49 11/20/2009 7:07 47.5
EUR/USD S 1.48736 1.48308 11/20/2009 6:01 11/20/2009 7:07 42.8
Symbol Action Buy Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD B 1.4913 1.49227 11/20/2009 1:57 11/20/2009 2:04 9.7
EUR/USD B 1.48135 1.48235 11/20/2009 7:09 11/20/2009 7:12 10
To receive further live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us.
s
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Current View on Karachi Stock Exchange
KSE-100: –Profit taking still not over - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Focus on Target Buying
KSE-100: – Consistent Profit taking observed - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes - Sit tight for the targets
Once again with the grace of Almighty my selling call honored and I am happy for all those who followed my profit taking call on 9,350. and I am sure whoever is getting my scrip analysis are having fun tonight as most of the scrip exactly went down from the given level.
I am not saying market is Bearish from here, Market still got the inflow of USD 4,489,475 today basically it was a regular profit taking call and scrip goes down to their support where it is still good to buy. Do not panic here, but it is wise to off load most of your positions if you see market trading below 9,110 and closing below this level will wake up bears.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price. Volatility will exist and possibility of shrinkage in volume: I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish;
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index
Key Levels
9,491
9,422
9,385
9,334
9,249
9,204
9,178
9,110
9,064
8,991
8,946
8,879
Follow the last day scrip analysis, key levels are same. Try off loading your positions, and buy back half of it when you see a dip
Call me for any further query at 0213-432 2350 or 0345-276 8680 email @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Have a good trade.
Regards
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Bhangras in Karachi Stock Exchange
KSE-100: Bullish – Bhangras of Bulls recorded
Secure traders advised profit taking around 9,350. Good to buy between 9,240 and 9,280 make your stop loss of 25 points below the buying range. Currently market targeting 9,640. Market welcomed inflow of 4,455,955 US dollars today and mutual funds were so vibrant scored positively 6,259,923 US dollars alone for market. Multiple developments make comfortable takeoff.
Breaking and closing below 9150 will be the indication for exit and 9,080 will be the exit for delivery holders.
For new readers some of my last day forecast:
I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index.
Call for more detail 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 email: safelyinvest@gmail.com
Key Levels for KSE-100
9,641
9,542
9,496
9,422
9,350
9,272
9,198
9,151
9,079
9,020
8,942
8,838
8,740
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS
Secure traders advised profit taking around 9,350. Good to buy between 9,240 and 9,280 make your stop loss of 25 points below the buying range. Currently market targeting 9,640. Market welcomed inflow of 4,455,955 US dollars today and mutual funds were so vibrant scored positively 6,259,923 US dollars alone for market. Multiple developments make comfortable takeoff.
Breaking and closing below 9150 will be the indication for exit and 9,080 will be the exit for delivery holders.
For new readers some of my last day forecast:
I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index.
Call for more detail 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 email: safelyinvest@gmail.com
Key Levels for KSE-100
9,641
9,542
9,496
9,422
9,350
9,272
9,198
9,151
9,079
9,020
8,942
8,838
8,740
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Dancing Bulls in Karachi Stock Exchange
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 3rd Week of Nov. 2009
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Shukkar Allhumdollialh market was able to close 1.34% above the last week closing. Well I do not call this a complete sign of bullish trend, but I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
I like to tell you that market got fair support but trend is not stabilized yet. We are going to see much of resistance between 9132 and 9175, the stability in trend will occur after breaking 9245.
Increase in power tariff may rose the inflation, the economic side of the country is still not satisfying the investors, we do not see any concrete actions and decisions for the development of the country, manufacturing concerns still under crisis, couple of sectors are under strike, the shortage of gas may hurt fertilizers in future, ongoing textile sector problems added up with the CNG crisis. The arrests of so many terrorist from different cities make people think of their network in the country and make investor think of the security of their life and investment.
Recommendation:
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions for now and check their morning calls for profit taking. You might see range bound activities until market strongly breaks the 9245 this week. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns. Monday market must close above 9038.
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Buying levels tested for banks.
Opportunity is ahead to turn and stay green for long.
Most of the scrip tested with our buying levels given for banking sector, enabling investors to recognize the chance of profit taking in the critical nascent stage of the sector’s recovery.
Going forward, opportunity is ahead for KSE-100 index to stay green for long on back of some prospective sectors.
Among them, progress can be ascribed to OMCs which are probable to reshuffling and can brace their cash position with the streamlining demand of furnace oil backed by expanding power sector. Rebound in Large-scale manufacturing would also foster OMCs’ performance by improving HSD demand. Though the recent 24% decline in sector’s topline was due to the oil volatility, acceleration in global economic outlook may raise average oil prices in coming years, creating fortuity for OMCs in terms of inventory gains to offset losses. Besides, with the government initiative to resolve the chaos of circular debt of Rs. 500 billion, OMCs would stand as beneficiary.
With regard to increasing foreign inflows, remittances are continued to remain vigorous. An effective scheme has also been launched by SBP to entice banking sector for securing further remittances which would facilitate banks in sustaining non-interest income. Over and above, the recent practice of SBP to provide liquidity on weekly basis is expected to extend to a higher maturity time which would not only lead to liquidity uphold for longer phase but also reshuffle private sector credit growth.
At macro level, third IMF review is on the move and should lead to the release of the next tranche of around US$850 mn over the next few weeks. IMF endorsement on country’s economic performance has played most of its part to reinstate the confidence of local and foreign investors.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Weekly Commentary
Euro zone crowding out of the slump; buyers’ crowd moving to Euro against Dollar
Euro/USD pair has lost upward momentum on the back of worst than expected U.S. data released, as well as little bearish U.S. indices. The resultant risk-averse sentiment of traders is likely to favor this plunge.
Beneath the external market’s antics, the pair is expected to follow the same track intrinsically. High unemployment rate, low wage growth, and shrinking credit demand in U.S. is moving its currency under pressure and weakening investor’s confidence as well. This, in couple with decreased interest rate may cause hot money to leave the country. Euro, on the other side, has moved out of the worst; although the recovery is flat, the GDP of euro area as a whole has raised by 0.4% after five successive declines. This has given room to ECB to cut interest rate which may award the euro an additional boost.
Some of Our Successful Buying Calls Last Week
15 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Short. Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
Euro/USD Short 1.4909 1.4897 11/13/2009 14:51 11/13/2009 15:07 0.0012
46 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Long. Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD Long 1.4834 1.4862 11/13/2009 9:56 11/13/2009 10:42 0.0028
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Shukkar Allhumdollialh market was able to close 1.34% above the last week closing. Well I do not call this a complete sign of bullish trend, but I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
I like to tell you that market got fair support but trend is not stabilized yet. We are going to see much of resistance between 9132 and 9175, the stability in trend will occur after breaking 9245.
Increase in power tariff may rose the inflation, the economic side of the country is still not satisfying the investors, we do not see any concrete actions and decisions for the development of the country, manufacturing concerns still under crisis, couple of sectors are under strike, the shortage of gas may hurt fertilizers in future, ongoing textile sector problems added up with the CNG crisis. The arrests of so many terrorist from different cities make people think of their network in the country and make investor think of the security of their life and investment.
Recommendation:
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions for now and check their morning calls for profit taking. You might see range bound activities until market strongly breaks the 9245 this week. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns. Monday market must close above 9038.
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Buying levels tested for banks.
Opportunity is ahead to turn and stay green for long.
Most of the scrip tested with our buying levels given for banking sector, enabling investors to recognize the chance of profit taking in the critical nascent stage of the sector’s recovery.
Going forward, opportunity is ahead for KSE-100 index to stay green for long on back of some prospective sectors.
Among them, progress can be ascribed to OMCs which are probable to reshuffling and can brace their cash position with the streamlining demand of furnace oil backed by expanding power sector. Rebound in Large-scale manufacturing would also foster OMCs’ performance by improving HSD demand. Though the recent 24% decline in sector’s topline was due to the oil volatility, acceleration in global economic outlook may raise average oil prices in coming years, creating fortuity for OMCs in terms of inventory gains to offset losses. Besides, with the government initiative to resolve the chaos of circular debt of Rs. 500 billion, OMCs would stand as beneficiary.
With regard to increasing foreign inflows, remittances are continued to remain vigorous. An effective scheme has also been launched by SBP to entice banking sector for securing further remittances which would facilitate banks in sustaining non-interest income. Over and above, the recent practice of SBP to provide liquidity on weekly basis is expected to extend to a higher maturity time which would not only lead to liquidity uphold for longer phase but also reshuffle private sector credit growth.
At macro level, third IMF review is on the move and should lead to the release of the next tranche of around US$850 mn over the next few weeks. IMF endorsement on country’s economic performance has played most of its part to reinstate the confidence of local and foreign investors.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Weekly Commentary
Euro zone crowding out of the slump; buyers’ crowd moving to Euro against Dollar
Euro/USD pair has lost upward momentum on the back of worst than expected U.S. data released, as well as little bearish U.S. indices. The resultant risk-averse sentiment of traders is likely to favor this plunge.
Beneath the external market’s antics, the pair is expected to follow the same track intrinsically. High unemployment rate, low wage growth, and shrinking credit demand in U.S. is moving its currency under pressure and weakening investor’s confidence as well. This, in couple with decreased interest rate may cause hot money to leave the country. Euro, on the other side, has moved out of the worst; although the recovery is flat, the GDP of euro area as a whole has raised by 0.4% after five successive declines. This has given room to ECB to cut interest rate which may award the euro an additional boost.
Some of Our Successful Buying Calls Last Week
15 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Short. Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
Euro/USD Short 1.4909 1.4897 11/13/2009 14:51 11/13/2009 15:07 0.0012
46 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Long. Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD Long 1.4834 1.4862 11/13/2009 9:56 11/13/2009 10:42 0.0028
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
View KSE and Forex at Your Desk
View KSE and Forex at Your Desk
KSE
Morning Call for Friday 13th November, 2009
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 – Market swallowed current selling pressure
Still too much of excitement is not appreciated
Intraday buyers will see some fair moves today
Yesterday market after testing one of our resistance level caught under prevailing selling pressure, but daring buyers come forward to defeat fear of the market, thanks to Foreign investors and Mutual fund for helping buyers by their inflow of USD 1,135,929 and 2,333,512 respectively.
Still the possibility of volatile movement exist in the market, the buyers will be appreciated for buying on early dip and profit taking recommended in first half if they see the 9105, buying back in second half is recommended only after analyzing the first half movement.
Bulls may get sign of relief above 9152 and later on trading above 9245 will probably stabilize the market in next week.
Most of the discounted scrip is in Bullish phase, market will be ideal for the day traders, if the scrip is selective.
Closing below 8810 for last day of the week will bring lot of depression for the bulls.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,000
8,937
8,891
8,854
8,817
8,777
Forex
**********Delayed Flash**********
EUR/USD Call by Safely Invest
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
Short 11/12/2009 6:52 1.49414 1.4865 Target achieved 12 - 13
1st Call Short 11/12/2009 7:49 1.49152 1.4875 Target achieved 12 - 13
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
2nd Call Short 11/12/2009 13:34 1.48599 1.48306 Target achieved at
11/12/2009 15:38
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
KSE
Morning Call for Friday 13th November, 2009
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 – Market swallowed current selling pressure
Still too much of excitement is not appreciated
Intraday buyers will see some fair moves today
Yesterday market after testing one of our resistance level caught under prevailing selling pressure, but daring buyers come forward to defeat fear of the market, thanks to Foreign investors and Mutual fund for helping buyers by their inflow of USD 1,135,929 and 2,333,512 respectively.
Still the possibility of volatile movement exist in the market, the buyers will be appreciated for buying on early dip and profit taking recommended in first half if they see the 9105, buying back in second half is recommended only after analyzing the first half movement.
Bulls may get sign of relief above 9152 and later on trading above 9245 will probably stabilize the market in next week.
Most of the discounted scrip is in Bullish phase, market will be ideal for the day traders, if the scrip is selective.
Closing below 8810 for last day of the week will bring lot of depression for the bulls.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,000
8,937
8,891
8,854
8,817
8,777
Forex
**********Delayed Flash**********
EUR/USD Call by Safely Invest
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
Short 11/12/2009 6:52 1.49414 1.4865 Target achieved 12 - 13
1st Call Short 11/12/2009 7:49 1.49152 1.4875 Target achieved 12 - 13
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
2nd Call Short 11/12/2009 13:34 1.48599 1.48306 Target achieved at
11/12/2009 15:38
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Morning call for Thursday, 12th November, 2009
Morning call for Thursday, 12th November, 2009
KSE-100
Wound is not healed yet – so be careful – buyers do not get excited!
FIPI Outflow USD 4,593,479
That’s true market was in immense pressure and that proved with the negative opening and testing one of our level as a low, and then from there market bounced by the bull power. It is also observed that market resisted twice around the 8844 level and later it breaks with the bull power, and at the end market traded around the level of 8916 and closed on the same after making a high of 8936.
Thanks Almighty the market leave 8765 far behind, so this is the healthier sign for right now, but traders do not get excited, because market still got the sign of high volatility and this may hurt your stop losses, Let me tell you folks that some panic selling recorded by the foreign investors around USD 4,593,479 just for today so be careful, I am still not believing the stability of the trend.
Trading positive all the day (Thursday) may give some strength to the buyers; high volatility will still be the issue with the remaining selling pressure.
Still lot of hard work required for attacking the level of 9150 and breaking this level may increase the volumes also.
Most of the discounted scrip is in early Bullish phase, market will be ideal for day traders, profit taking must be your main concern today. Specific Scrip selection is required.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,035
8,988
8,958
8,902
8,806
8,765
For further analysis on any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
KSE-100
Wound is not healed yet – so be careful – buyers do not get excited!
FIPI Outflow USD 4,593,479
That’s true market was in immense pressure and that proved with the negative opening and testing one of our level as a low, and then from there market bounced by the bull power. It is also observed that market resisted twice around the 8844 level and later it breaks with the bull power, and at the end market traded around the level of 8916 and closed on the same after making a high of 8936.
Thanks Almighty the market leave 8765 far behind, so this is the healthier sign for right now, but traders do not get excited, because market still got the sign of high volatility and this may hurt your stop losses, Let me tell you folks that some panic selling recorded by the foreign investors around USD 4,593,479 just for today so be careful, I am still not believing the stability of the trend.
Trading positive all the day (Thursday) may give some strength to the buyers; high volatility will still be the issue with the remaining selling pressure.
Still lot of hard work required for attacking the level of 9150 and breaking this level may increase the volumes also.
Most of the discounted scrip is in early Bullish phase, market will be ideal for day traders, profit taking must be your main concern today. Specific Scrip selection is required.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,035
8,988
8,958
8,902
8,806
8,765
For further analysis on any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Morning Call for Wednesday 11th, Nov, 2009
Morning Call for Wednesday 11th, Nov, 2009
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Nov, 10th, 2009
KSE-100 - Pressure, Pressure and Pressure
Market is in immense pressure, volumes were squeezed, in fact we do not see any new economic disaster right now, though we are surviving under the past and present economic crisis along with the political uncertainty. Well in my weekly report I warned that any negative trading on first day of week can add more selling pressure and this happened.
Now I do not see much of support immediately, but the last hope will come if the market get any kind of support around 8765 and trade all day above this level, that might give some sigh of relieve to the depressed and feared investors.
Daring actions required by the mutual funds and volume buyers, but again unfortunately it is observed that Mutual fund recorded sell of USD 2,804,668 and foreign investor’s portfolio also followed by selling USD 1,622,768.
I tell you guys if the 8,765 level not honored then we will be having roller coaster rides and this time these are in down trend.
Key Levels
9,098
8,983
8,916
8,844
8,793
8,765
8,675
8,530
I do not recommend any trade for now
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Nov, 10th, 2009
KSE-100 - Pressure, Pressure and Pressure
Market is in immense pressure, volumes were squeezed, in fact we do not see any new economic disaster right now, though we are surviving under the past and present economic crisis along with the political uncertainty. Well in my weekly report I warned that any negative trading on first day of week can add more selling pressure and this happened.
Now I do not see much of support immediately, but the last hope will come if the market get any kind of support around 8765 and trade all day above this level, that might give some sigh of relieve to the depressed and feared investors.
Daring actions required by the mutual funds and volume buyers, but again unfortunately it is observed that Mutual fund recorded sell of USD 2,804,668 and foreign investor’s portfolio also followed by selling USD 1,622,768.
I tell you guys if the 8,765 level not honored then we will be having roller coaster rides and this time these are in down trend.
Key Levels
9,098
8,983
8,916
8,844
8,793
8,765
8,675
8,530
I do not recommend any trade for now
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Domestic and Global Updates
Domestic and Global Updates
By Safelyinvest
Domestic News
• Bank holiday on 9th, November.
• Nishat power plant to start working today
• Naveed Ismail appointed KES MD
• SBP approves merger
Government asked to stop import of cotton, yarn
• JSCL increases stake in PICT
• US jobless rate rises to over 10%
• Did PSO get oil from banned source?
• President advised to keep himself away from NRO beneficiaries
• NRO beneficiaries: Sindh government asked to compile data
• Nepal offers electricity to Pakistan
• IMF talks: Tarin expects to get $1.2 billion next month
• US Karachi consulate resumes visa service
• Americans Dressed as Afghans Caught With Illegal Weapons
Global News
U.S. Stocks End Two-Week Slide as Manufacturing, Home Sales Top Forecasts
UCBH Holdings' Bank Is Seized, Becomes 120th U.S. Lender Closed This Year
Buffett's `Wake-Up Call' to Berkshire Managers May Signal More Cost Cuts
Geithner, Brown Split on Transaction Tax as G-20 Seeks Rebalanced Economy Group of 20 governments split on whether to tax financial trading as part of a broader strategy to ensure the global economy’s expansion is less crisis-prone. Geithner Says `Continued Policy Support' Required for Economic Recovery Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. economy requires “continued policy support” to recover from a financial and economic crisis that has pushed unemployment to its highest level since 1983.
G-20 Members Will Seek Asian Currency Gains to Solve Imbalances, UBS Says The Group of 20 finance chiefs will likely push for Asian nations to allow their currencies to appreciate when they meet in Scotland this weekend, according to UBS AG, the world’s second-largest foreign-exchange trader.
IMF Says Dollar Being Used to Fund `Carry Trade,' May Still Be Overvalued The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” across the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.
Consumer Credit Declines More Than Forecast Amid Mounting U.S. Job Losses U.S. consumer credit fell in September for an eighth straight month, the longest series of declines on record, as thousands of Americans lost their jobs and banks tightened access to loans.
Canada Loses 43,200 Jobs in October, Unemployment Rate Increases to 8.6% Canadian employers unexpectedly fired workers in October and the unemployment rate rose more than expected, suggesting the U.S.’s largest trading partner hasn’t fully recovered from the recession that began last year.
Saudi Arabian Shares Advance as Sabic, Yanbu National Petrochemical Gain Saudi Arabian shares rose for the fourth session in five, led by Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s biggest petrochemicals maker, known as Sabic.
Emerging-Market Equity Funds Post First Worldwide Outflows Since June All four major developing-nation equity fund groups posted outflows concurrently for the first time since June on concern the pace of the global economic recovery may not justify valuations, EPFR Global said.
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
By Safelyinvest
Domestic News
• Bank holiday on 9th, November.
• Nishat power plant to start working today
• Naveed Ismail appointed KES MD
• SBP approves merger
Government asked to stop import of cotton, yarn
• JSCL increases stake in PICT
• US jobless rate rises to over 10%
• Did PSO get oil from banned source?
• President advised to keep himself away from NRO beneficiaries
• NRO beneficiaries: Sindh government asked to compile data
• Nepal offers electricity to Pakistan
• IMF talks: Tarin expects to get $1.2 billion next month
• US Karachi consulate resumes visa service
• Americans Dressed as Afghans Caught With Illegal Weapons
Global News
U.S. Stocks End Two-Week Slide as Manufacturing, Home Sales Top Forecasts
UCBH Holdings' Bank Is Seized, Becomes 120th U.S. Lender Closed This Year
Buffett's `Wake-Up Call' to Berkshire Managers May Signal More Cost Cuts
Geithner, Brown Split on Transaction Tax as G-20 Seeks Rebalanced Economy Group of 20 governments split on whether to tax financial trading as part of a broader strategy to ensure the global economy’s expansion is less crisis-prone. Geithner Says `Continued Policy Support' Required for Economic Recovery Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. economy requires “continued policy support” to recover from a financial and economic crisis that has pushed unemployment to its highest level since 1983.
G-20 Members Will Seek Asian Currency Gains to Solve Imbalances, UBS Says The Group of 20 finance chiefs will likely push for Asian nations to allow their currencies to appreciate when they meet in Scotland this weekend, according to UBS AG, the world’s second-largest foreign-exchange trader.
IMF Says Dollar Being Used to Fund `Carry Trade,' May Still Be Overvalued The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” across the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.
Consumer Credit Declines More Than Forecast Amid Mounting U.S. Job Losses U.S. consumer credit fell in September for an eighth straight month, the longest series of declines on record, as thousands of Americans lost their jobs and banks tightened access to loans.
Canada Loses 43,200 Jobs in October, Unemployment Rate Increases to 8.6% Canadian employers unexpectedly fired workers in October and the unemployment rate rose more than expected, suggesting the U.S.’s largest trading partner hasn’t fully recovered from the recession that began last year.
Saudi Arabian Shares Advance as Sabic, Yanbu National Petrochemical Gain Saudi Arabian shares rose for the fourth session in five, led by Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s biggest petrochemicals maker, known as Sabic.
Emerging-Market Equity Funds Post First Worldwide Outflows Since June All four major developing-nation equity fund groups posted outflows concurrently for the first time since June on concern the pace of the global economic recovery may not justify valuations, EPFR Global said.
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Karachi Stock Exchange and Forex View
Technical Forecast for KSE-100
For the 2nd Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday, November 7th, 2009
KSE-100
Recap of past week:
Unfortunately the selling pressure continues this week, though it was observed that the mutual funds were also took part in buying with the foreign investors, but on Friday both the FIPI and mutual funds were in selling by USD $ 1,844,292 and USD $ 2,441,285 respectively. Comparing with the last week the weekly FIPI decline by USD 3,169,394 and the KSE-100 index volume Decline by 281,020,736 shares. The law and order situation was also the major source for shattering confidence of the investors, further pressure added by the ongoing political crisis. It is observed that investors were discussing the options available for the future administrative setup.
Market Technically:
Friday the market closed around one of our given level, in fact this level has the ability to bounce the market back into its previous channel, and it will only happen if the market trade positively all day on Monday. The trend is still not established so any positive development can take market back into the bullish hopes. And I also like to add that negative closing on Monday will add new selling pressure to the existing selling pressure.
The coming week may bring some progress as it is recorded that the inflation rate is declined and the leverage product is about to announce. Still the net of FIPI is in positive, here I see the responsibility of local institutions to come forward and support the market, as most of the scrip are trading on discount rate and the some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Above all the achievements of Pakistan army is remarkable in Wazirstan operation. Most of the nations realized that it is required to strengthen the Pakistani economy along with the moral support if they really like to eliminate the global terror threat.
Recommendation:
Currently market is in bearish mode but Monday will decide the move of the week; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions until the final selling call. You might see range bound activities this week. Increasing volume may give some confidence to the traders. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. You may see some dancing bulls over 9265.In fact the 9150 – 9250 is the crucial zone for the market
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,145 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,448
8,937
Key Levels
9,250
9,155
9,104
9,026
8,888
8,791
8,433
Portfolio Investment: Weekly Snapshot
Market was under selling pressure in past week, though the mix bags of results announced depicted satisfactory performance of some scrip; in fact fewer were remarkable.
What’s more, the upcoming leverage product in KSE will also boost volume and market capitalization may shift the trend northward.
For oil sector, inching up trend in the international oil price plus recent discoveries and exploration are expected to fortify the top line.
For banks, credit cost is expected to decline and liquidity position should improve in 2QFY10 due to relatively lower net liquidity drain through T-bill auctions.
At macro level, notable drop in headline inflation to a single digit portrays spring back of our economy.
Foreign aid with the goal to waive twin deficits can prove to be handy for external account deficit but unfortunately not for fiscal deficit due to dismal tax collections and higher security related expenditure. In this regard textile sector – contributing 55-60% to total exports and 8% to GDP – has begun to rebound indicated by 7% growth in first three months of current financial year. This bounce-back would be propped up by expected drop in discount rate by SBP. However, raise in cotton prices may lift up cost but it can be well overcome by upturn in demand for our textile products in international market.
Why trade Forex
We welcome all vibrant traders to come and join the world of opportunities, Forex market never sleep in working days, with the ability to trade around the clock, currency traders have the advantage of customizing their own trading schedule; they can usually get in or out of the market at any time without waiting for an opening bell or encountering a market gap. While trading stocks after usual market hours is possible, very often that possibility is negated by a lack of order flow or a drastic widening of the bid-ask spread. You are not required to pay any commissions, and the most exciting offer is the liberty of short selling, trading 24 hours in working days with all open information about the market.
Forex market is the largest market of the world by its size; even New York stock exchange cannot beat the forex, and tell you forex gives you the ability to trade the world largest economies by trading their currencies.
Safely Invest offer you to explore the opportunities in EURUSD pair I call all of the readers of my report to contact us for further future call, we send live calls to all euro/usd spot traders on daily basis. Here I can tell you it is better to think before making any decision; we like to have all of our members to do technical trading. We do not appreciate trading during the report hours. Our buy calls are with the stop loss and we leave target open for the traders to make their own decision by analyzing the market pressure.
Key Levels
1.5074
1.5056
1.5021
1.5010
1.4993
1.4925
1.4892
1.4873
1.4855
1.4841
1.4802
1.4787
1.4770
1.4754
1.4736
1.4724
1.4692
1.4651
1.4614
1.4472
1.4060
1.3989
1.3784
1.3437
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
For the 2nd Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday, November 7th, 2009
KSE-100
Recap of past week:
Unfortunately the selling pressure continues this week, though it was observed that the mutual funds were also took part in buying with the foreign investors, but on Friday both the FIPI and mutual funds were in selling by USD $ 1,844,292 and USD $ 2,441,285 respectively. Comparing with the last week the weekly FIPI decline by USD 3,169,394 and the KSE-100 index volume Decline by 281,020,736 shares. The law and order situation was also the major source for shattering confidence of the investors, further pressure added by the ongoing political crisis. It is observed that investors were discussing the options available for the future administrative setup.
Market Technically:
Friday the market closed around one of our given level, in fact this level has the ability to bounce the market back into its previous channel, and it will only happen if the market trade positively all day on Monday. The trend is still not established so any positive development can take market back into the bullish hopes. And I also like to add that negative closing on Monday will add new selling pressure to the existing selling pressure.
The coming week may bring some progress as it is recorded that the inflation rate is declined and the leverage product is about to announce. Still the net of FIPI is in positive, here I see the responsibility of local institutions to come forward and support the market, as most of the scrip are trading on discount rate and the some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Above all the achievements of Pakistan army is remarkable in Wazirstan operation. Most of the nations realized that it is required to strengthen the Pakistani economy along with the moral support if they really like to eliminate the global terror threat.
Recommendation:
Currently market is in bearish mode but Monday will decide the move of the week; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions until the final selling call. You might see range bound activities this week. Increasing volume may give some confidence to the traders. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. You may see some dancing bulls over 9265.In fact the 9150 – 9250 is the crucial zone for the market
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,145 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,448
8,937
Key Levels
9,250
9,155
9,104
9,026
8,888
8,791
8,433
Portfolio Investment: Weekly Snapshot
Market was under selling pressure in past week, though the mix bags of results announced depicted satisfactory performance of some scrip; in fact fewer were remarkable.
What’s more, the upcoming leverage product in KSE will also boost volume and market capitalization may shift the trend northward.
For oil sector, inching up trend in the international oil price plus recent discoveries and exploration are expected to fortify the top line.
For banks, credit cost is expected to decline and liquidity position should improve in 2QFY10 due to relatively lower net liquidity drain through T-bill auctions.
At macro level, notable drop in headline inflation to a single digit portrays spring back of our economy.
Foreign aid with the goal to waive twin deficits can prove to be handy for external account deficit but unfortunately not for fiscal deficit due to dismal tax collections and higher security related expenditure. In this regard textile sector – contributing 55-60% to total exports and 8% to GDP – has begun to rebound indicated by 7% growth in first three months of current financial year. This bounce-back would be propped up by expected drop in discount rate by SBP. However, raise in cotton prices may lift up cost but it can be well overcome by upturn in demand for our textile products in international market.
Why trade Forex
We welcome all vibrant traders to come and join the world of opportunities, Forex market never sleep in working days, with the ability to trade around the clock, currency traders have the advantage of customizing their own trading schedule; they can usually get in or out of the market at any time without waiting for an opening bell or encountering a market gap. While trading stocks after usual market hours is possible, very often that possibility is negated by a lack of order flow or a drastic widening of the bid-ask spread. You are not required to pay any commissions, and the most exciting offer is the liberty of short selling, trading 24 hours in working days with all open information about the market.
Forex market is the largest market of the world by its size; even New York stock exchange cannot beat the forex, and tell you forex gives you the ability to trade the world largest economies by trading their currencies.
Safely Invest offer you to explore the opportunities in EURUSD pair I call all of the readers of my report to contact us for further future call, we send live calls to all euro/usd spot traders on daily basis. Here I can tell you it is better to think before making any decision; we like to have all of our members to do technical trading. We do not appreciate trading during the report hours. Our buy calls are with the stop loss and we leave target open for the traders to make their own decision by analyzing the market pressure.
Key Levels
1.5074
1.5056
1.5021
1.5010
1.4993
1.4925
1.4892
1.4873
1.4855
1.4841
1.4802
1.4787
1.4770
1.4754
1.4736
1.4724
1.4692
1.4651
1.4614
1.4472
1.4060
1.3989
1.3784
1.3437
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Dhian for Thursday November 5th, 2009
Dhian for Thursday November 5th, 2009
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 - Market is out of depression right now
Foreign Buying of USD 4,433,853 makes mutual funds buy for USD 3,067,062.
Intraday with same day profit taking suggested. I wish we do not see any more explosions inshallah.
• Bulls will get crazy after breaking 9265.
• Closing below 9100 may get some bears back in ring.
Profit taking recommended around 9370. You might get your positions back in cheaper price.
Last resort for the market 8,925 (if closed below)
Key Levels
9,383
9,265
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 - Market is out of depression right now
Foreign Buying of USD 4,433,853 makes mutual funds buy for USD 3,067,062.
Intraday with same day profit taking suggested. I wish we do not see any more explosions inshallah.
• Bulls will get crazy after breaking 9265.
• Closing below 9100 may get some bears back in ring.
Profit taking recommended around 9370. You might get your positions back in cheaper price.
Last resort for the market 8,925 (if closed below)
Key Levels
9,383
9,265
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange Activity "4-11-09"
Dhian for Wednesday November 4th, 2009
KSE-100 - Market still under selling pressure
Foreign Buying of USD 1,014,743 still not able to convince bulls for buying. Well at least the mutual fund stop selling, that may give little energy to the local buyers today.
I wish we do not see any more explosions. I tell you guys do not worry about the NRO,
• To get out completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9142.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9015
• Closing below 8925 will be disaster for this week
• Minimum weekly closing above 9265 for bull hopes
Key Levels
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
8,855
8,765
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
KSE-100 - Market still under selling pressure
Foreign Buying of USD 1,014,743 still not able to convince bulls for buying. Well at least the mutual fund stop selling, that may give little energy to the local buyers today.
I wish we do not see any more explosions. I tell you guys do not worry about the NRO,
• To get out completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9142.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9015
• Closing below 8925 will be disaster for this week
• Minimum weekly closing above 9265 for bull hopes
Key Levels
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
8,855
8,765
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 2, 2009
No Recommendation for Tuesday, November 03, 2009
No Recommendation for Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Hi Folks!
I don’t have much to say for your stocks right now, all the stop losses were hit; it is required to analyze the market in coming days and make the exit strategy if the pressure continues.
Immense selling pressure recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange, in early hours the Pindi blast added fear to the investors, then later on the news channel reported about the statement of Mr. Altaf Hussain which added more pressure to the market.
All striving bulls caught into trouble, and ultimately market closed in negatively. This pressure may continue, how long this will go nobody can guarantee but here it is necessary to analyze the future options for the country’s administration.
WOW! The unconvincing visit of Ms. Hilary Clinton put the political forces into new trouble, which will give a hard time to the present government, and you know the Pak army is already engaged in War.
So nobody is counting on Gen. Kiani, do we have choice to bring the alternative “that’s the vital question at present”
Follow the Monday briefing for key levels and be focused on market and current affairs for the future strategy
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Hi Folks!
I don’t have much to say for your stocks right now, all the stop losses were hit; it is required to analyze the market in coming days and make the exit strategy if the pressure continues.
Immense selling pressure recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange, in early hours the Pindi blast added fear to the investors, then later on the news channel reported about the statement of Mr. Altaf Hussain which added more pressure to the market.
All striving bulls caught into trouble, and ultimately market closed in negatively. This pressure may continue, how long this will go nobody can guarantee but here it is necessary to analyze the future options for the country’s administration.
WOW! The unconvincing visit of Ms. Hilary Clinton put the political forces into new trouble, which will give a hard time to the present government, and you know the Pak army is already engaged in War.
So nobody is counting on Gen. Kiani, do we have choice to bring the alternative “that’s the vital question at present”
Follow the Monday briefing for key levels and be focused on market and current affairs for the future strategy
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Technical Forecast for KSE-100 For the First Week of Nov, 2009
Technical Forecast for KSE-100
For the First Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Saturday, October 31, 2009
Hi Folks:
The whole week market was under heavy selling pressure by mutual funds, and the Peshawar blast added more to the market. Though the buyer were striving hard to support market and the visit of US foreign minister was also scheduled to help the country’s current uncertain political and economic situation, I am pretty optimistic that her visit will impact positively to the economy and it is observed that Ms Clinton will be able to suggest the US administration to rectify their policy to secure Pakistani interest. I really like to request the KSE and the regulators to please come forward and introduce some new products and do some road shows for the awareness of the local investors.
Market is bearish for now; Foreign investment still adding more and more to our reserves but we still like to have some institutional buying and control law and order situation in the country to stabilize the market.
Market Possibilities.
• To get out of completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9565.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9395
• Breaking 9250 will enhance the confidence of local investors and might get mutual fund back into buying.
• Minimum weekly closing above 9425 for bull hopes
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,854
8,768
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,325 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyer for high returns
Key Levels
9,478
9,395
9,238
9,035
8,891
8,790
Dear Members/Clients
If you are aware of our weekly reports and the morning briefings then I am sure you realized the market high of the last week was exactly at our level which was 9,478 and market recorded 9,476 as a high for the week and this where we recommended the profit taking. And then low was also well supported by our levels. I specifically like to congratulate the traders who followed the AICL, DGKC and OGDC and were able to book the highest return for this week. I really like all of my readers to please come forward and learn the rules of engagement and enhance their trading skills. I am open for all those who really have the commitment towards the goal.
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
For the First Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Saturday, October 31, 2009
Hi Folks:
The whole week market was under heavy selling pressure by mutual funds, and the Peshawar blast added more to the market. Though the buyer were striving hard to support market and the visit of US foreign minister was also scheduled to help the country’s current uncertain political and economic situation, I am pretty optimistic that her visit will impact positively to the economy and it is observed that Ms Clinton will be able to suggest the US administration to rectify their policy to secure Pakistani interest. I really like to request the KSE and the regulators to please come forward and introduce some new products and do some road shows for the awareness of the local investors.
Market is bearish for now; Foreign investment still adding more and more to our reserves but we still like to have some institutional buying and control law and order situation in the country to stabilize the market.
Market Possibilities.
• To get out of completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9565.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9395
• Breaking 9250 will enhance the confidence of local investors and might get mutual fund back into buying.
• Minimum weekly closing above 9425 for bull hopes
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,854
8,768
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,325 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyer for high returns
Key Levels
9,478
9,395
9,238
9,035
8,891
8,790
Dear Members/Clients
If you are aware of our weekly reports and the morning briefings then I am sure you realized the market high of the last week was exactly at our level which was 9,478 and market recorded 9,476 as a high for the week and this where we recommended the profit taking. And then low was also well supported by our levels. I specifically like to congratulate the traders who followed the AICL, DGKC and OGDC and were able to book the highest return for this week. I really like all of my readers to please come forward and learn the rules of engagement and enhance their trading skills. I am open for all those who really have the commitment towards the goal.
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Morning Call for Friday 30th, Oct, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
Updated: Oct, 29th, 2009. 8:00pm
Morning Call for Friday 30th, Oct, 2009
Proper interpretation of Hilary Clinton point and corporate announcement may get market into bulls
Foreign investment continuously increasing
KSE-100 – Selling Pressure exist
Mixed activities observed, traders were coming forward to buy positions but unfortunately the mutual funds and institutions were not supportive, alone Foreign investors supported the market by USD 2,337,839. Market after making a low of 9073 was able to close exactly on our given support level. In fact the past two days closing is not letting us to go for bearish trend though the market is in selling pressure. Fear still exists in investors due to Peshawar blast.
I am not loosing hopes, the positive trading activities on last day of the week will enhance the courage of the local investors and I am sure that will also push the institution to buy back their position. For Friday it is required for market to close above 9265 to stay in bullish hopes. Trading above 9325 will add energy to bulls.
Be selective in scrip and sector, as you know that market recorded the mixed activities.
Key Levels for the market
9,554
9,442
9,380
9,278
9,252
9,211
9,177
9,100
9,035
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer:This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
Updated: Oct, 29th, 2009. 8:00pm
Morning Call for Friday 30th, Oct, 2009
Proper interpretation of Hilary Clinton point and corporate announcement may get market into bulls
Foreign investment continuously increasing
KSE-100 – Selling Pressure exist
Mixed activities observed, traders were coming forward to buy positions but unfortunately the mutual funds and institutions were not supportive, alone Foreign investors supported the market by USD 2,337,839. Market after making a low of 9073 was able to close exactly on our given support level. In fact the past two days closing is not letting us to go for bearish trend though the market is in selling pressure. Fear still exists in investors due to Peshawar blast.
I am not loosing hopes, the positive trading activities on last day of the week will enhance the courage of the local investors and I am sure that will also push the institution to buy back their position. For Friday it is required for market to close above 9265 to stay in bullish hopes. Trading above 9325 will add energy to bulls.
Be selective in scrip and sector, as you know that market recorded the mixed activities.
Key Levels for the market
9,554
9,442
9,380
9,278
9,252
9,211
9,177
9,100
9,035
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer:This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Morning Call for Thursday 29th, Oct, 2009
Morning Call for Thursday 29th, Oct, 2009
Caution: Peshawar Blast may impact the market
Institutional buy can support the market for getting out of this fear of terror
Foreign investment continuously increasing
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
KSE-100
Again mixed trend observed, traders seems confuse about the trend because of the mutual funds, institutions and foreign investors activities. Though market closed on its bouncing support but unfortunately the Peshawar blast enhanced the fear in investors. FIPI got inflow of USD 1,456,971 and mutual funds were in selling
Key Levels for the market
9,554
9,442
9,359
9,177
9,100
9,035
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Caution: Peshawar Blast may impact the market
Institutional buy can support the market for getting out of this fear of terror
Foreign investment continuously increasing
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
KSE-100
Again mixed trend observed, traders seems confuse about the trend because of the mutual funds, institutions and foreign investors activities. Though market closed on its bouncing support but unfortunately the Peshawar blast enhanced the fear in investors. FIPI got inflow of USD 1,456,971 and mutual funds were in selling
Key Levels for the market
9,554
9,442
9,359
9,177
9,100
9,035
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Morning Call for Wednesday Oct 28, 2009
Morning Call for Wednesday Oct 28, 2009
Decreasing volatility increasing hopes with some upcoming development, Ultimate Target Bullish
New buyers still welcome
By
Khalid Saifuddin
safelyinvest
KSE-100
Yesterday mixed activities recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange , it is also observed that the mutual funds were off loading their positions while the local traders and Foreign Investors were in buying, alone FIPI got inflow of USD 1,924,621.
The other reason of pressure was the corporate results and institutional sales, this pressure may continue in first half of trading today (Wednesday)
Though the market closed in selling pressure, but I do not see many reasons for the continuation of this pressure, to stay in bullish channel it is required for the market to close above 9244 today.
I see most of the political development positive for the market in a short term manner and visit of US foreign minister will bring more bull power to the market.
So I recommend buyers to take advantage of the early dip and buy their scrip on given support levels with the calculated stop loss. And tell you this is the time to target your buy price in specific sectors and choose your choice of scrip.
This is the right time to design new portfolios targeting next quarter.
Key Levels
9,554
9,478
9,441
9,379
9,285
9,238
9,192
9,035
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Decreasing volatility increasing hopes with some upcoming development, Ultimate Target Bullish
New buyers still welcome
By
Khalid Saifuddin
safelyinvest
KSE-100
Yesterday mixed activities recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange , it is also observed that the mutual funds were off loading their positions while the local traders and Foreign Investors were in buying, alone FIPI got inflow of USD 1,924,621.
The other reason of pressure was the corporate results and institutional sales, this pressure may continue in first half of trading today (Wednesday)
Though the market closed in selling pressure, but I do not see many reasons for the continuation of this pressure, to stay in bullish channel it is required for the market to close above 9244 today.
I see most of the political development positive for the market in a short term manner and visit of US foreign minister will bring more bull power to the market.
So I recommend buyers to take advantage of the early dip and buy their scrip on given support levels with the calculated stop loss. And tell you this is the time to target your buy price in specific sectors and choose your choice of scrip.
This is the right time to design new portfolios targeting next quarter.
Key Levels
9,554
9,478
9,441
9,379
9,285
9,238
9,192
9,035
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Morning Briefing for Tuesday 27th October, 2009
Morning Briefing for Tuesday 27th October, 2009
Immense buying recorded by Mutual funds, Institutions and Foreign Investors, alone FIPI got USD 4,722,179. As I said earlier it is proved today the decreasing volatility increasing hopes with some upcoming development, Ultimate Target Bullish
The bulls flying now looking for more energy may get some energy with the upcoming developments
Key Levels for KSE-100
Tuesday
R – 3 9,590
R – 2 9,478
R – 1 9,395
P.Cls 9,374
S – 1 9,285
S – 2 9,238
S – 3 9,192
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Immense buying recorded by Mutual funds, Institutions and Foreign Investors, alone FIPI got USD 4,722,179. As I said earlier it is proved today the decreasing volatility increasing hopes with some upcoming development, Ultimate Target Bullish
The bulls flying now looking for more energy may get some energy with the upcoming developments
Key Levels for KSE-100
Tuesday
R – 3 9,590
R – 2 9,478
R – 1 9,395
P.Cls 9,374
S – 1 9,285
S – 2 9,238
S – 3 9,192
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Technical Forecast for KSE-100 For the Last Week of Oct, 2009
Technical Forecast for KSE-100
For the Last Week of Oct, 2009
New buyers welcome aboard
Bulls ready to take off
Ultimate Target
Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Hi Folks:
Market seems little relaxed now; I can see some fresh breathing on last day of the week. Foreign investor’s net buy was USD 7,321,734 on Friday.
Tell you investors this week you get the clarification about the trend, though it is not established yet. Currently market got into the oversold range and usually here comes the new buy. The bullish power in traders will be coming in different phases.
• Trading above 9,180 will add confidence
• Trading above 9,395 will energize the bulls
• Closing above 9,340 on Monday will help the bulls for whole week
• Last but not the least closing over 9,700 this week will spread dancing bulls all over
Bears will get power back if the market closes below the last week low (which seems quite difficult)
Ongoing war, shooting events and explosions were the major cause of fear in the market. Incoming leverage product and positive development by Pakistani Army will minimize the fear in investors
The current statements from foreign diplomats will also help minimizing the bear power.
Key Levels
9,478
9,395
9,238
8,930
8,891
8,790
Fundamental View:
By Farkhunda Jabeen
I feel this is an excellent opportunity to have capital gains from stock investments; since equities at KSE are being traded at much discounted rates, forecasting the high returns in near future. Of course, this time span is sufficient for KSE stocks to reflect the upcoming growth prospects, as the positive events can set our economy in the direction for growth like shrinkage in Current Account Deficit, high foreign inflows and potential growth of service sector.
Pakistan economy, regarded of having a high growth potential, has been shifted to disturbance phase due to the recent law & order situation of the country. However, other economic and political ups-and-downs that can be traced back in the country’s history allow us not to lose hope when deciding of investing in the stocks of this high-potential country.
Foreign Investors Position
5th Oct to 9th Oct, 2009
Gross Buy Gross Sell
Rs 2,063,593,703 Rs 2,671,297,652
Net Sell Rs 2607,703,947
Net Sale USD $ 7,321,734
Weekly Candle
Open 9844.55
High 9859.73
Low 8974.85
Close 9150.85
Total Move 869.7
Lost 687.27
% Lost -6.98%
Decreasing volatility increasing hopes with some upcoming development
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
For the Last Week of Oct, 2009
New buyers welcome aboard
Bulls ready to take off
Ultimate Target
Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Hi Folks:
Market seems little relaxed now; I can see some fresh breathing on last day of the week. Foreign investor’s net buy was USD 7,321,734 on Friday.
Tell you investors this week you get the clarification about the trend, though it is not established yet. Currently market got into the oversold range and usually here comes the new buy. The bullish power in traders will be coming in different phases.
• Trading above 9,180 will add confidence
• Trading above 9,395 will energize the bulls
• Closing above 9,340 on Monday will help the bulls for whole week
• Last but not the least closing over 9,700 this week will spread dancing bulls all over
Bears will get power back if the market closes below the last week low (which seems quite difficult)
Ongoing war, shooting events and explosions were the major cause of fear in the market. Incoming leverage product and positive development by Pakistani Army will minimize the fear in investors
The current statements from foreign diplomats will also help minimizing the bear power.
Key Levels
9,478
9,395
9,238
8,930
8,891
8,790
Fundamental View:
By Farkhunda Jabeen
I feel this is an excellent opportunity to have capital gains from stock investments; since equities at KSE are being traded at much discounted rates, forecasting the high returns in near future. Of course, this time span is sufficient for KSE stocks to reflect the upcoming growth prospects, as the positive events can set our economy in the direction for growth like shrinkage in Current Account Deficit, high foreign inflows and potential growth of service sector.
Pakistan economy, regarded of having a high growth potential, has been shifted to disturbance phase due to the recent law & order situation of the country. However, other economic and political ups-and-downs that can be traced back in the country’s history allow us not to lose hope when deciding of investing in the stocks of this high-potential country.
Foreign Investors Position
5th Oct to 9th Oct, 2009
Gross Buy Gross Sell
Rs 2,063,593,703 Rs 2,671,297,652
Net Sell Rs 2607,703,947
Net Sale USD $ 7,321,734
Weekly Candle
Open 9844.55
High 9859.73
Low 8974.85
Close 9150.85
Total Move 869.7
Lost 687.27
% Lost -6.98%
Decreasing volatility increasing hopes with some upcoming development
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange for 23rd October, 09
Morning Call for 23rd October, 09
Dear Folks!
We do not recommend any buying unless we gauge the market behavior.
Due to the increased foreign selling and country terror situation KSE-100 seems to be in pressure and volatility is expected.
Net foreign selling
Pak Rs 191,981,441
USD 2,313,029
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Dear Folks!
We do not recommend any buying unless we gauge the market behavior.
Due to the increased foreign selling and country terror situation KSE-100 seems to be in pressure and volatility is expected.
Net foreign selling
Pak Rs 191,981,441
USD 2,313,029
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Morning Briefing for Thursday 22nd October, 2009
Morning Briefing for Thursday 22nd October, 2009
Mutual funds, Institutions and Foreign Investors observed selling their positions and small investor and local traders were in buying…it’s not amazing?
Net Selling Yesterday by foreign investors USD 2,782,312
KSE-100 Today: Bears are in Power – possibilities of bouncing back
Market under pressure due to ongoing terror alert and back door conspiracies.
Upcoming political development and economic measures can support the market. News regarding leverage product will also help the market.
Caution: We are in state of War.
Key Levels for KSE-100
Thursday
R 4 9540
R 3 9468
R 2 9380
R 1 9286
P.Cls 9,248
S 1 9,245
S 2 9,137
S 3 9,098
S 4 8,937
--
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Mutual funds, Institutions and Foreign Investors observed selling their positions and small investor and local traders were in buying…it’s not amazing?
Net Selling Yesterday by foreign investors USD 2,782,312
KSE-100 Today: Bears are in Power – possibilities of bouncing back
Market under pressure due to ongoing terror alert and back door conspiracies.
Upcoming political development and economic measures can support the market. News regarding leverage product will also help the market.
Caution: We are in state of War.
Key Levels for KSE-100
Thursday
R 4 9540
R 3 9468
R 2 9380
R 1 9286
P.Cls 9,248
S 1 9,245
S 2 9,137
S 3 9,098
S 4 8,937
--
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange for 21st October, 09
Dhian for Wednesday 21st October, 2009
Declining Global interest recorded will add more pressure
Net Selling on Yesterday USD 6,438,649
KSE-100 Today:
Well the correction call is turning into bearish trend, the major reason for this change will be the terror alert for the country, now we are on war. Immense fear of terror noticed in common man.
Yesterday market accurately tested our levels, the low and high of the market was proved the accuracy of our support and resistance. Unfortunately market failed to close above the 9600 which was the hope of getting back into correctional phase. Last hour pressure was due to the explosion in university.
Now it is getting difficult for the investors to gain confidence.
I recommend traders to stay out of intraday trade and focus on buying specific scrip on market support.
If market bounces back from 9500 will give sigh or relief to investors.
I want intraday traders do not take positions in pre-open, wait for market to get stabilize and then plan their buys in specific scrip on support
Before buying or selling any scrip, please gauge the pressure in 100 index.
Key Levels for KSE-100
Wednesday
R 3 9,739
R 2 9,678
R 1 9,644
P.Cls 9,569
S 1 9,510
S 2 9,369
S 3 9,278
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Declining Global interest recorded will add more pressure
Net Selling on Yesterday USD 6,438,649
KSE-100 Today:
Well the correction call is turning into bearish trend, the major reason for this change will be the terror alert for the country, now we are on war. Immense fear of terror noticed in common man.
Yesterday market accurately tested our levels, the low and high of the market was proved the accuracy of our support and resistance. Unfortunately market failed to close above the 9600 which was the hope of getting back into correctional phase. Last hour pressure was due to the explosion in university.
Now it is getting difficult for the investors to gain confidence.
I recommend traders to stay out of intraday trade and focus on buying specific scrip on market support.
If market bounces back from 9500 will give sigh or relief to investors.
I want intraday traders do not take positions in pre-open, wait for market to get stabilize and then plan their buys in specific scrip on support
Before buying or selling any scrip, please gauge the pressure in 100 index.
Key Levels for KSE-100
Wednesday
R 3 9,739
R 2 9,678
R 1 9,644
P.Cls 9,569
S 1 9,510
S 2 9,369
S 3 9,278
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
KSE-100 for the Week of 19th 23rd Oct, 2009
KSE-100 for the Week of 19th 23rd Oct, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday 17th 2009
Hi Folks:
To me enough is enough, market resisting on highs for quite long time, with the intraday corrections market try to support the bulls for next run. But now I can see too many signs of going into regular correction.
Friday it has been observed the biggest foreign selling, if you compare with the last couple of months data, the Waziristan operation can also be reason for investors to minimize their positions, country is on high alerts these days, the confidence of common men is shacked because of the explosions and shooting events, though the Kerry-Lugar bill will be the greatest supporter for the Bulls.
Trading and closing above 10,005 on Monday can put bulls back into ring, and closing below 9815 may bring pressure to the market. Now it really makes sense to focus on long term holdings but investor must be very specific and choose the right time for buy.
Caution: Declining Global interest recorded on Friday
Key Levels
10150
10027
9945
9811
9608
9520
Recap Last Week:
Market performed in both directions with pressures, traders were really interested to get into the market, but couple of events makes them shocked and later that also resulted in some outflow of the foreign investment. Market still having opportunity of some long term buy, the investors must fix their targets.
Last week analysis: I was convinced that the volatility and intraday correction will make market stabilize and it did. Though market still in fragile zone but we got some positive development, the ongoing debate on Kerry-Lugar will be gone very soon like the NRO and Musharaf trail.
The incoming Leverage product will give more strength to the market, and we all noticed the pouring dollars are already getting high.
I am very much optimistic about the market now, though it will take little correction but eventually the market will hit the goal.
Trading above 9865 will energize the market and trading or closing below 9505 may bring pressure to the market. Now it makes sense to focus on long term holdings but investor must be very specific and choose the right time for buy.
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday 17th 2009
Hi Folks:
To me enough is enough, market resisting on highs for quite long time, with the intraday corrections market try to support the bulls for next run. But now I can see too many signs of going into regular correction.
Friday it has been observed the biggest foreign selling, if you compare with the last couple of months data, the Waziristan operation can also be reason for investors to minimize their positions, country is on high alerts these days, the confidence of common men is shacked because of the explosions and shooting events, though the Kerry-Lugar bill will be the greatest supporter for the Bulls.
Trading and closing above 10,005 on Monday can put bulls back into ring, and closing below 9815 may bring pressure to the market. Now it really makes sense to focus on long term holdings but investor must be very specific and choose the right time for buy.
Caution: Declining Global interest recorded on Friday
Key Levels
10150
10027
9945
9811
9608
9520
Recap Last Week:
Market performed in both directions with pressures, traders were really interested to get into the market, but couple of events makes them shocked and later that also resulted in some outflow of the foreign investment. Market still having opportunity of some long term buy, the investors must fix their targets.
Last week analysis: I was convinced that the volatility and intraday correction will make market stabilize and it did. Though market still in fragile zone but we got some positive development, the ongoing debate on Kerry-Lugar will be gone very soon like the NRO and Musharaf trail.
The incoming Leverage product will give more strength to the market, and we all noticed the pouring dollars are already getting high.
I am very much optimistic about the market now, though it will take little correction but eventually the market will hit the goal.
Trading above 9865 will energize the market and trading or closing below 9505 may bring pressure to the market. Now it makes sense to focus on long term holdings but investor must be very specific and choose the right time for buy.
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
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