Weekly Report for Year Closing Dec. 2009
Well done Bulls
The New Rally about to Begin
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Thursday, Dec. 24th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Market Technically:
KSE-100: Bear’s last wicket down by the amazing spell of bulls.
Congrats for Amazing success on this week trading, and folks tell you it is a great achievement if you make money in a lackluster market and you did.
Market looks fabulous and energetic for the near term future. We might see some resistance around 9,483; once crossing and closing above this level, bulls will be dancing all over.
The good news is market got out of depressive range and it may set new targets for near future. Furthermore the coming week closing will endorse the authenticity of the new rally.
I wish market would not close below 9,428, though it’s not a difficult target, but fewer indicators of market are blinking some selling on Monday. And breaking/closing below 9,315 will recharge the bears. Most of the negative events and political conflicts seem to be absorbed by the market.
Key Levels
9,719
9,591
9,483
9,289
9,170
9,067
Recommendation:
Now last call for investors is to re-arrange their portfolio and gear up for gaining high returns in March 2010. Focused buying is required to achieve the target.
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more than the market buys. Banking, Energy and Oil must be your primary selection. Insurance and Cement sector are already benefiting your capital gain
Recap of past week:
The past week had the amazing levels for our traders as our most of the buy calls honored and I am sure the readers of our reports and morning call realized the accuracy of our key levels in past week.
The ups and downs of the market behavior were monitored accurately and on behalf of these levels we had great buy calls. I was feared of going down from 9,293 but later on buyers along with the institutions manage to close the markets above the expected level, but if you guys remember the morning calls of the past week, that was pretty much updating on positive expectations.
And at the end market gone crazy by breaking most of the critical levels and manage to close in comfortable zone.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Greenback revivifies: FDI and FIPI should serve as cushion to ensure the money-back.
A mammoth piece of liquidity is going to be injected in our liquidity-evicted economy in form of recent IMP tranche of $1.2 billion. It can be seen that Pakistan faced a 37 percent loss in investment by overseas investors in the first five months of this financial year. Thusly, this active liquidity thrust can revitalize our foreign reserves; however, the foreigners’ interests of direct investments in our economy should be sustained, especially considering the sensitive behavior of FIPIs to country’s uncertainty situation. Though FIPIs have notably rebounded this week compared to the last week, the two ‘golden’ drivers of foreign reserves should remain persistent and encouraged in order to uninterruptedly repay the loan. No doubt, some of our high potential sectors are encouragingly playing their role in enticing foreign investments specifically in the recent scenario of shedding foreign investment.
The IMF disbursement, along with first tranche of USD 500 mn under Kerry Lugar Financial Program would put the seasonal spike in external debt servicing burden on a normal footing and thus stabilize the PKR.
As far as the issue of eroding foreign reserves is concerned, Ministry of Finance is considering ingoing into a currency swap agreements with China and Malaysia, according to which these countries will import from us in PKR and we will import our raw material and capital goods from them in Yuan and ringgit respectively. The agreement is yet at its initial stage and it may take some time to become operational by the banks, but it can well contribute in sustaining our greenback reserves, internationally required currency units.
A good move also includes the designing of new investment policy to protect local and foreign investors. According to the policy, customs duty would be reduced from 5-1 percent on capital goods and raw materials. There would be no sales tax and withholding tax on import of machinery. This would help trim down the cost of setting up of industrial units in the country.
This assortment of triumphs should prove to be a positive elicit for our equity market.
On the other face, some rowdy issues include rise in electricity tariffs and gas shortage are severely affecting key industry players. Textile, being the main export participant, is suffering around billion of losses due to the prevalent crisis. Besides, exports under Export Processing Zone (EPZ) have declined by 10 percent during July-November 2009 against last equivalent period.
Forex
Market Trend
Current Bearish
Short term Range Bound
Medium term Bullish with profit taking
Long term Bullish
Technical Highlights:
EUR/USD - Current trend range bound with exhausted Sellers.
The EURUSD made a bottom on last day of its trading now restricting its further fall and I am expecting some upside correction up to 1.4500 levels, and from there you can do short again. Well but this time you are not going too long.
Fewer indicators supporting the bullish trend for the currency pair for weekly trade. And in fact I am bullish on pair for near future
I recommend pre planned entries by placing your long and short position as per given calls. It is the beauty of the market you are not required to stick to the screen.
I see stronger support around 1.4010 and 1.4035, and this zone has the bouncing ability too. I see breakout very close, currently pair trading in a range with offensive selling pressure, more possibilities of bullish trend after the breakout.
Long/Buy: Around 1.4324 add double of the first buy around 1.4235 and the stop loss for all positions below 1.4212.
Short: when you see the pair testing 1.4500 and then the next strategy is short around 1.4412 (when 60 minutes candle closes below this level after testing)
Fundamental Highlights:
Expectations are being raised that British economy would finally emerge from recession by the end of the year, but faces a fragile path of slow growth. According to CBI’s chief economic adviser, credit conditions would remain difficult as the banks slowly nurture themselves back to health, consumer spending will be shaped by the need to rebuild savings, and the public sector will soon have to tighten its belt. All three factors will act as headwinds to growth.
The biggest problem weighing on the euro is the sovereign debt crisis in EMU, which took on a new urgency last week. Greece and to a lesser extent Spain, Ireland and Portugal are facing deficits well in excess of the 3% stabilization treaty limits.
For U.S., home sales rose again, albeit moderately. Rebound has also been seen in durable goods orders after decline in October. This shows U.S. economic improvement on modest level.
Key Levels
1.4838
1.4794
1.4748
1.4681
1.4624
1.4581
1.4500
1.4442
1.4402
1.4373
1.4350
1.4316
1.4293
1.4263
1.4223
1.4070
1.3878
To receive live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
High Risk Investment
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Saturday, December 26, 2009
The New Rally about to Begin
Last Report for 2009
Well done Bulls
The New Rally about to Begin
Well done Bulls
The New Rally about to Begin
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Thursday, Dec. 24th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Market Technically:
KSE-100: Bear’s last wicket down by the amazing spell of bulls.
Congrats for Amazing success on this week trading, and folks tell you it is a great achievement if you make money in a lackluster market and you did.
Market looks fabulous and energetic for the near term future. We might see some resistance around 9,483; once crossing and closing above this level, bulls will be dancing all over.
The good news is market got out of depressive range and it may set new targets for near future. Furthermore the coming week closing will endorse the authenticity of the new rally.
I wish market would not close below 9,428, though it’s not a difficult target, but fewer indicators of market are blinking some selling on Monday. And breaking/closing below 9,315 will recharge the bears. Most of the negative events and political conflicts seem to be absorbed by the market.
Key Levels
9,719
9,591
9,483
9,289
9,170
9,067
Recommendation:
Now last call for investors is to re-arrange their portfolio and gear up for gaining high returns in March 2010. Focused buying is required to achieve the target.
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more than the market buys. Banking, Energy and Oil must be your primary selection. Insurance and Cement sector are already benefiting your capital gain
Recap of past week:
The past week had the amazing levels for our traders as our most of the buy calls honored and I am sure the readers of our reports and morning call realized the accuracy of our key levels in past week.
The ups and downs of the market behavior were monitored accurately and on behalf of these levels we had great buy calls. I was feared of going down from 9,293 but later on buyers along with the institutions manage to close the markets above the expected level, but if you guys remember the morning calls of the past week, that was pretty much updating on positive expectations.
And at the end market gone crazy by breaking most of the critical levels and manage to close in comfortable zone.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Greenback revivifies: FDI and FIPI should serve as cushion to ensure the money-back.
A mammoth piece of liquidity is going to be injected in our liquidity-evicted economy in form of recent IMP tranche of $1.2 billion. It can be seen that Pakistan faced a 37 percent loss in investment by overseas investors in the first five months of this financial year. Thusly, this active liquidity thrust can revitalize our foreign reserves; however, the foreigners’ interests of direct investments in our economy should be sustained, especially considering the sensitive behavior of FIPIs to country’s uncertainty situation. Though FIPIs have notably rebounded this week compared to the last week, the two ‘golden’ drivers of foreign reserves should remain persistent and encouraged in order to uninterruptedly repay the loan. No doubt, some of our high potential sectors are encouragingly playing their role in enticing foreign investments specifically in the recent scenario of shedding foreign investment.
The IMF disbursement, along with first tranche of USD 500 mn under Kerry Lugar Financial Program would put the seasonal spike in external debt servicing burden on a normal footing and thus stabilize the PKR.
As far as the issue of eroding foreign reserves is concerned, Ministry of Finance is considering ingoing into a currency swap agreements with China and Malaysia, according to which these countries will import from us in PKR and we will import our raw material and capital goods from them in Yuan and ringgit respectively. The agreement is yet at its initial stage and it may take some time to become operational by the banks, but it can well contribute in sustaining our greenback reserves, internationally required currency units.
A good move also includes the designing of new investment policy to protect local and foreign investors. According to the policy, customs duty would be reduced from 5-1 percent on capital goods and raw materials. There would be no sales tax and withholding tax on import of machinery. This would help trim down the cost of setting up of industrial units in the country.
This assortment of triumphs should prove to be a positive elicit for our equity market.
On the other face, some rowdy issues include rise in electricity tariffs and gas shortage are severely affecting key industry players. Textile, being the main export participant, is suffering around billion of losses due to the prevalent crisis. Besides, exports under Export Processing Zone (EPZ) have declined by 10 percent during July-November 2009 against last equivalent period.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Striving bulls Losing hope in Karachi Stock Exchange
Weekly Report for 4th Week of Dec. 2009
“Striving bulls Losing hope”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday, December 19, 2009
10:15pm
KSE-100: Trend Bearish – Pressures hitting from all directions
The utmost daring activities of bulls resisted strongly by bears. My given feared zone resulted with strong selling pressure and pushes the bulls back onto lower limits. Though bulls recorded their highest level of skill by testing our level twice in past week.
Market currently in bearish trend with the aggravating bear’s pressure, as per current scenario I don’t see market going above 9293 but have more room in downward direction, tell you breaking the 8,815 will bring real disaster to the market.
9,165 have bouncing capacity and we may see some support between 9,165 and 9,114. Breaking this zone will take market to 8,992. Bulls will get back in the market with power around 8,950.
Recommendation:
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more then the market buys. Banking, Insurance and Cement sector can give some gain in this week. Focusing on given level will give you the chance of capital gain in a bearish market.
Recap:
That’s true the utmost daring activities of bulls recorded this week against the immense selling pressure, and as I warned about the feared resistance zone, that act strongly and make bulls getting on back foot. Thanks to almighty we did not see much of terror events in the past week, but as I mentioned in one of my morning call that, I am not convinced with the 250 positive points on Monday.
And if you noticed that proved in following days, and I also like to remind my friends about my level of 9,248, continuously three days I was warning all of my readers to please consider this level for your offloading decisions.
I think now it is easy to realize, but remember time never returns, so it is good to analyze your decision before execution.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
KSE: Liquidity-driven market fundamentals are waiting for recouped investors’ buoyancy
Versatile ragbags of foreign investment initiatives ahead are making their way effectively to infuse liquidity in different untapped sectors. China, U.S., Korea, and France have profound interest in capitalizing our banking and power sector. Although political uncertainty and worst law and order situation has rigorously added ‘red’ in investors’ portfolio, some attractive fundamentals have potent enough to restore bull-power of our ‘diffident’ investors. The liquidity-bound initiatives also include monetary ease off at the top of the list, which would not only relax the credit cost of banks but also of the scrips to which banks are exposed. Relaxation in FSV benefit and higher banking spread would be a strong catalyst for banks. These initiatives would lead to bottoming out the earning duck in the financial results of CY09. To boost investors’ sentiment, meliorated credit ratings from key ratings agencies and ADB’s forecast of economic growth to 3 percent in FY10, on the back of upcoming public expenditure program, are flattering go-aheads. This would facilitate in reaching GDP growth to 3 percent this fiscal year. Although power crisis is persistent, forthcoming power projects would well overcome its burden.
Sector Highlights: Welcoming the fresh rally of result announcements
Past quarter corporate earnings across all sectors were not uniform and the trend represented significant divergence, though overall July-Sept financial reporting season rounded off with 7 per cent growth in earnings, likened with the last year matching period. For this quarter, same pattern of sector-specific performance may remain, though some sectors are well expected to be added among the high-earning ones. Banks and few insurance and fertilizer scrip are among them. On monthly basis, OMCs achieved remarkable offtake numerals in October. However, auto sector depicted seasonal decline. Textile, refineries, and cement can also linger in depression.
External front: Rupee can grind to a halt in the wrestle of inflows and outflows
Political uncertainty has also influenced foreign investments recently, apart of local one. FDI has been dropped to 52 percent during first five months of FY10. Rupee has also gone under pressure as dollar demand has rushed. Next, SBP’s move to transfer oil import payment to private sector has brought about only one-time southward trend in rupee, though it would get stable anon, at least in inter-bank market. Besides, although narrowing of CAD to $1.35bn in July-Nov is a good feat, it is backed by lower exports and imports, which reveals hampering of employment. Rupee has thus got stuck in the fight of inflows and outflows initiatives. We may enjoy liquidity through the next IMF tranche of $1.2 billion but it would later on put bonus pressure on rupee at repayment time. On the other side, Upcoming FDI in our unexploited sectors would be a ‘positive’ inflow for our external balance.
Technical Highlights:
EUR/USD
The pair still under immense selling pressure with the continuous bearish trend, but here I suggest my readers to start doing the profit taking of their shorts. Currently it is not advisable to long positions for holding, the pair is going to set new structure, it may give chance to short more in pair, short term possibilities exist for both long and short by honoring the given key levels.
For now I recommend long for short term profitability, trading below 1.4333 will bring more bears into the ring, possible profit taking around 1.4480. Once trading started over 1.4480, it will stabilize the pair for upside move. 1.4437 can also play as weaker resistance, before testing the 1.4480.
Fundamental Highlights:
U.S. economy recommenced growth in the third quarter, ending four straight quarters of decline. The euro zone recorded its first quarter of economic growth in more than a year in the July-September period. Given that the recovery in both regions has been largely driven by government stimulus, there have been fears of a double-dip recession – a scenario where the economy perks up temporarily only to contract again. Thus, IMF seems this recovery as fragile. However, labor markets have generally lagged the recovery. On weekly basis, CPI & PPI rates turned back in positive territory, industrial production increased and housing rebounds after a huge fall, in U.S. In Europe, German IFO Business Sentiment reached at 17 month highs. Euro zone’s October trade balance rose by 57 percent, however CA surplus dropped by 8 percent. Looking ahead Russian Nov Unemployment Rate may have reached to 7.8% and Russian Nov Retail Sales growth may have been dropped to 0.7%.
To receive live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
High Risk Investment
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
“Striving bulls Losing hope”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday, December 19, 2009
10:15pm
KSE-100: Trend Bearish – Pressures hitting from all directions
The utmost daring activities of bulls resisted strongly by bears. My given feared zone resulted with strong selling pressure and pushes the bulls back onto lower limits. Though bulls recorded their highest level of skill by testing our level twice in past week.
Market currently in bearish trend with the aggravating bear’s pressure, as per current scenario I don’t see market going above 9293 but have more room in downward direction, tell you breaking the 8,815 will bring real disaster to the market.
9,165 have bouncing capacity and we may see some support between 9,165 and 9,114. Breaking this zone will take market to 8,992. Bulls will get back in the market with power around 8,950.
Recommendation:
It is required for investors to be very specific on scrip selection, target buy will benefit more then the market buys. Banking, Insurance and Cement sector can give some gain in this week. Focusing on given level will give you the chance of capital gain in a bearish market.
Recap:
That’s true the utmost daring activities of bulls recorded this week against the immense selling pressure, and as I warned about the feared resistance zone, that act strongly and make bulls getting on back foot. Thanks to almighty we did not see much of terror events in the past week, but as I mentioned in one of my morning call that, I am not convinced with the 250 positive points on Monday.
And if you noticed that proved in following days, and I also like to remind my friends about my level of 9,248, continuously three days I was warning all of my readers to please consider this level for your offloading decisions.
I think now it is easy to realize, but remember time never returns, so it is good to analyze your decision before execution.
Market Fundamentals
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
KSE: Liquidity-driven market fundamentals are waiting for recouped investors’ buoyancy
Versatile ragbags of foreign investment initiatives ahead are making their way effectively to infuse liquidity in different untapped sectors. China, U.S., Korea, and France have profound interest in capitalizing our banking and power sector. Although political uncertainty and worst law and order situation has rigorously added ‘red’ in investors’ portfolio, some attractive fundamentals have potent enough to restore bull-power of our ‘diffident’ investors. The liquidity-bound initiatives also include monetary ease off at the top of the list, which would not only relax the credit cost of banks but also of the scrips to which banks are exposed. Relaxation in FSV benefit and higher banking spread would be a strong catalyst for banks. These initiatives would lead to bottoming out the earning duck in the financial results of CY09. To boost investors’ sentiment, meliorated credit ratings from key ratings agencies and ADB’s forecast of economic growth to 3 percent in FY10, on the back of upcoming public expenditure program, are flattering go-aheads. This would facilitate in reaching GDP growth to 3 percent this fiscal year. Although power crisis is persistent, forthcoming power projects would well overcome its burden.
Sector Highlights: Welcoming the fresh rally of result announcements
Past quarter corporate earnings across all sectors were not uniform and the trend represented significant divergence, though overall July-Sept financial reporting season rounded off with 7 per cent growth in earnings, likened with the last year matching period. For this quarter, same pattern of sector-specific performance may remain, though some sectors are well expected to be added among the high-earning ones. Banks and few insurance and fertilizer scrip are among them. On monthly basis, OMCs achieved remarkable offtake numerals in October. However, auto sector depicted seasonal decline. Textile, refineries, and cement can also linger in depression.
External front: Rupee can grind to a halt in the wrestle of inflows and outflows
Political uncertainty has also influenced foreign investments recently, apart of local one. FDI has been dropped to 52 percent during first five months of FY10. Rupee has also gone under pressure as dollar demand has rushed. Next, SBP’s move to transfer oil import payment to private sector has brought about only one-time southward trend in rupee, though it would get stable anon, at least in inter-bank market. Besides, although narrowing of CAD to $1.35bn in July-Nov is a good feat, it is backed by lower exports and imports, which reveals hampering of employment. Rupee has thus got stuck in the fight of inflows and outflows initiatives. We may enjoy liquidity through the next IMF tranche of $1.2 billion but it would later on put bonus pressure on rupee at repayment time. On the other side, Upcoming FDI in our unexploited sectors would be a ‘positive’ inflow for our external balance.
Technical Highlights:
EUR/USD
The pair still under immense selling pressure with the continuous bearish trend, but here I suggest my readers to start doing the profit taking of their shorts. Currently it is not advisable to long positions for holding, the pair is going to set new structure, it may give chance to short more in pair, short term possibilities exist for both long and short by honoring the given key levels.
For now I recommend long for short term profitability, trading below 1.4333 will bring more bears into the ring, possible profit taking around 1.4480. Once trading started over 1.4480, it will stabilize the pair for upside move. 1.4437 can also play as weaker resistance, before testing the 1.4480.
Fundamental Highlights:
U.S. economy recommenced growth in the third quarter, ending four straight quarters of decline. The euro zone recorded its first quarter of economic growth in more than a year in the July-September period. Given that the recovery in both regions has been largely driven by government stimulus, there have been fears of a double-dip recession – a scenario where the economy perks up temporarily only to contract again. Thus, IMF seems this recovery as fragile. However, labor markets have generally lagged the recovery. On weekly basis, CPI & PPI rates turned back in positive territory, industrial production increased and housing rebounds after a huge fall, in U.S. In Europe, German IFO Business Sentiment reached at 17 month highs. Euro zone’s October trade balance rose by 57 percent, however CA surplus dropped by 8 percent. Looking ahead Russian Nov Unemployment Rate may have reached to 7.8% and Russian Nov Retail Sales growth may have been dropped to 0.7%.
To receive live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
High Risk Investment
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange
Morning Call for Tuesday the 15th Dec. 2009
“Striving Bulls kicked Bears out of ring”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Monday December, 14th, 2009
KSE-100: Just got Bullish
The utmost daring activities resulted in kicking bears out of ring, sustaining 9,000 levels last week supported bulls to turn the upside down.
The fear, the depression gradually going far now, and the local investors gearing up for new rides, as I was telling you guys not to forget the last Qtr expectation, well the Dubai bail out plan and rallies in global market is not that important in my personal view.
In my last report I mentioned the rising early indication of bullish trend, that comes true today and now for the second day of the week I am not really convince of having same energy in bulls. I am feared of zone between 9.297 and 9,355. This zone can be the most resisting area for the market.
For bulls I would say trading over 9,275 all day will be good, and the new comers must think of their stop loss around 9,248.
For Medium term Investors (Clients) only
I like to congratulate our clients for accurately having their buys on targeted price of Banking, Fertilizer and Insurance sector sent on 6th, November, 19th, November and 9th, December respectively. So, get ready to calculate gains on your capital since some of our recommended scrip are very close to their first offloading target. Please do not hesitate to ask for further details on your portfolios.
Thanks and regards
Khalid Saifuddin
0345-276 8680
021-3432 2359
To receive live calls on KSE-100 Scrip and EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
“Striving Bulls kicked Bears out of ring”
By Khalid Saifuddin
Monday December, 14th, 2009
KSE-100: Just got Bullish
The utmost daring activities resulted in kicking bears out of ring, sustaining 9,000 levels last week supported bulls to turn the upside down.
The fear, the depression gradually going far now, and the local investors gearing up for new rides, as I was telling you guys not to forget the last Qtr expectation, well the Dubai bail out plan and rallies in global market is not that important in my personal view.
In my last report I mentioned the rising early indication of bullish trend, that comes true today and now for the second day of the week I am not really convince of having same energy in bulls. I am feared of zone between 9.297 and 9,355. This zone can be the most resisting area for the market.
For bulls I would say trading over 9,275 all day will be good, and the new comers must think of their stop loss around 9,248.
For Medium term Investors (Clients) only
I like to congratulate our clients for accurately having their buys on targeted price of Banking, Fertilizer and Insurance sector sent on 6th, November, 19th, November and 9th, December respectively. So, get ready to calculate gains on your capital since some of our recommended scrip are very close to their first offloading target. Please do not hesitate to ask for further details on your portfolios.
Thanks and regards
Khalid Saifuddin
0345-276 8680
021-3432 2359
To receive live calls on KSE-100 Scrip and EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us at 9221-3432 2359 or 92345-276 8680.
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange "Forecast for 2nd Week of Dec"
KSE-100 “Elevating Fear in a Falling Market”
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
KSE-100
Market gone thru a depressive week with really low volumes, most of the expected danger was already mentioned in earlier report and posts; more range bound activities expected with the depression, few little upward moves will not open avenues for buyers. Now we have more indications for down trend. The last Qtr corporate results may support the market.
9,130 to 9,185 can be a major resisting zone for the market, crossing this zone with the bull power will give confidence to the investors.
The impact of Dubai crisis in global market is not over. The investors required to focus precisely on foreign investor’s position because the first week of December recorded the outflow of 41% of November holdings, so if this continues then the market will definitely get into complete bearish trend from the current range bound activities. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror wasn’t able to support market and at the end Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and the fear of security will impact more in near future. Increase in trader’s participation may strengthen the market little bit. I see US will be using the Weapon of funds inflow to strengthen Pakistani administration anarchy, as we get more inflows after the series of drone attacks. IMF also preparing to review on 12th, I am still wishing for have leverage back to the market, all these may charge bulls a little bit
Recommendation:
Traders must be very picky in present scenario, OIL, Fertilizer and Energy sector will be a good choice for trading, and Insurance can also benefit to small lot traders.
Recap of past week:
In our last report it was clearly indicated about the danger. We also highlighted the major concern which can affect the market and they did, at the end market closed in danger zone with shrunken volumes and range bound activities for the week
As it was mentioned earlier that Market currently at decisive point and the issues like NRO, 17th amendment, possible reshuffling in Cabinet, Sindh Governorship, burning Baluchistan, the corporate circular debts, industrial crisis, power shortage and upcoming gas shortage will keep the investors away from the market. Thanks to almighty we do not have the direct impact of global markets which are affected by Dubai crisis. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror may help market but the Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and ultimately the week concluded with depression
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Sunday, Dec. 6th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Our financially globalize equity market is indigent amid flagging foreign investors’ confidence.
After rewarding optimistic reception to monetary policy and ricocheting economic indicators, waning confidence of foreign investors in the course of recent Dubai financial crisis is continued to lead our equity markets to an oversold position. KSE index hit hard along with other equity indices worldwide. The index is now ready to turn and stay red following any signal about pressures on it. Although Pakistan banks' exposure to Dubai crisis is within manageable margins but eroded risk appetite can influence FPI that has been the key driver of KSE.
While visualizing medium and long-term outlook, some favorable developments are in pipeline. Pak-German BIT is one of them. The pact is not only providing insurance against social and political risks of Pakistan but also paving the way for its unrealized investment potential, exploiting its untapped resource base, and enhancing financial assistance. This unrealized potential has also been realized by some other nations which are geared up to access the potential through different pacts. Mounting export of our skilled manpower is also adding on the imminent optimism of the country on the back of increasing remittances. Another financial assistance of $500 million is being assured by World Bank to facilitate the economy to get back on track.
In terms of specific sectors, power sector shows northward outlook of its trend at KSE. IPPs are chief beneficiary in this case which ensure decent returns and high earnings certainty. Upcoming expansion projects would also boost the sector’s performance. But on the other side, sharp hike in gas prices by 18 percent are depressing fundamentals of textile and cement sector. Increase in prices of cotton and its supply-shortage are further disturbing textile sector in its critical budding stage of recovery. Plus, on going circular debt issue is raising liquidity concerns for OMCs, Refineries, and IPPs. This may attack the supply chain of oil to IPPs.
So, a mix bag of optimistic and pessimistic sector-wise performance is taking its position. To reap the fruit of forthcoming opportunities, foreign portfolio investment should spring back on their track to recuperate the country’s risk premium and have the market rally around the track where investors can re-envisage uphill trend.
FOREX
EUR/USD
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Technical Highlights:
USD against EURO climb after the news for the Non Farm Payrolls, and it never looked back. U.S. Economy only lost 11,000 jobs as it was estimated 108,000 off. The EUR/USD pair reacted suddenly and moved 200 pips in downside on last day of the week, later on supported at the strongest support. This bounce off of the strong support level could provide an excellent opportunity to get into buy of EURO targeting 1.4910 level. (we already given a buy call on Friday)
And if the pair breaks the level and hit our stop loss then we will see a major bearish move, currently pair go up, then medium term selling pressure expected long term is Bullish
Fundamental Highlights: Strong capital positions seem to dodge the bullet.
Gone the threats of hurting from world’s financial crisis; recent Dubai debt crisis has swapped the same threatening spot to hurt financial markets, despite recent and imminent signs of economic revitalization. Different regions, from Asia to Europe, have exposure to Dubai debt, though impact of Dubai debt crisis is country-specific; not the region one. Fundamentally, currencies of U.S. and Euro zone should be least affected by it. U.K, being one of the high exposed countries, has not much currency-wise attachments to EUR. However, banks of these nations are ready to dodge the bullet on the back of their strong capital positions. Other highly exposed nations include U.A.E as well as Dubai itself. Over and above, the impact of investors’ sentiments shouldn’t be dubbed under fundamental upshots. These sentiments are not only impinging on Forex but also on equity markets throughout the countries of different regions. What can be complimentary now, is the behavior of investors who are gearing up to divest from Dubai markets and invest in other burgeoning markets where news flow is playing its part lucratively to defend the respective countries in terms of having least exposure and thus being least concerned.
For further assistance and live calls on EUR/USD you are always welcome to contact me @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This commentary, key levels and news are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
KSE-100
Market gone thru a depressive week with really low volumes, most of the expected danger was already mentioned in earlier report and posts; more range bound activities expected with the depression, few little upward moves will not open avenues for buyers. Now we have more indications for down trend. The last Qtr corporate results may support the market.
9,130 to 9,185 can be a major resisting zone for the market, crossing this zone with the bull power will give confidence to the investors.
The impact of Dubai crisis in global market is not over. The investors required to focus precisely on foreign investor’s position because the first week of December recorded the outflow of 41% of November holdings, so if this continues then the market will definitely get into complete bearish trend from the current range bound activities. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror wasn’t able to support market and at the end Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and the fear of security will impact more in near future. Increase in trader’s participation may strengthen the market little bit. I see US will be using the Weapon of funds inflow to strengthen Pakistani administration anarchy, as we get more inflows after the series of drone attacks. IMF also preparing to review on 12th, I am still wishing for have leverage back to the market, all these may charge bulls a little bit
Recommendation:
Traders must be very picky in present scenario, OIL, Fertilizer and Energy sector will be a good choice for trading, and Insurance can also benefit to small lot traders.
Recap of past week:
In our last report it was clearly indicated about the danger. We also highlighted the major concern which can affect the market and they did, at the end market closed in danger zone with shrunken volumes and range bound activities for the week
As it was mentioned earlier that Market currently at decisive point and the issues like NRO, 17th amendment, possible reshuffling in Cabinet, Sindh Governorship, burning Baluchistan, the corporate circular debts, industrial crisis, power shortage and upcoming gas shortage will keep the investors away from the market. Thanks to almighty we do not have the direct impact of global markets which are affected by Dubai crisis. Though the local institutions were supporting the market and the very few developments like the war on terror may help market but the Pindi blast become the last nail in the coffin and ultimately the week concluded with depression
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Sunday, Dec. 6th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Our financially globalize equity market is indigent amid flagging foreign investors’ confidence.
After rewarding optimistic reception to monetary policy and ricocheting economic indicators, waning confidence of foreign investors in the course of recent Dubai financial crisis is continued to lead our equity markets to an oversold position. KSE index hit hard along with other equity indices worldwide. The index is now ready to turn and stay red following any signal about pressures on it. Although Pakistan banks' exposure to Dubai crisis is within manageable margins but eroded risk appetite can influence FPI that has been the key driver of KSE.
While visualizing medium and long-term outlook, some favorable developments are in pipeline. Pak-German BIT is one of them. The pact is not only providing insurance against social and political risks of Pakistan but also paving the way for its unrealized investment potential, exploiting its untapped resource base, and enhancing financial assistance. This unrealized potential has also been realized by some other nations which are geared up to access the potential through different pacts. Mounting export of our skilled manpower is also adding on the imminent optimism of the country on the back of increasing remittances. Another financial assistance of $500 million is being assured by World Bank to facilitate the economy to get back on track.
In terms of specific sectors, power sector shows northward outlook of its trend at KSE. IPPs are chief beneficiary in this case which ensure decent returns and high earnings certainty. Upcoming expansion projects would also boost the sector’s performance. But on the other side, sharp hike in gas prices by 18 percent are depressing fundamentals of textile and cement sector. Increase in prices of cotton and its supply-shortage are further disturbing textile sector in its critical budding stage of recovery. Plus, on going circular debt issue is raising liquidity concerns for OMCs, Refineries, and IPPs. This may attack the supply chain of oil to IPPs.
So, a mix bag of optimistic and pessimistic sector-wise performance is taking its position. To reap the fruit of forthcoming opportunities, foreign portfolio investment should spring back on their track to recuperate the country’s risk premium and have the market rally around the track where investors can re-envisage uphill trend.
FOREX
EUR/USD
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Sunday, Nov. 29th 2009
info@safelyinvest.com.pk
Technical Highlights:
USD against EURO climb after the news for the Non Farm Payrolls, and it never looked back. U.S. Economy only lost 11,000 jobs as it was estimated 108,000 off. The EUR/USD pair reacted suddenly and moved 200 pips in downside on last day of the week, later on supported at the strongest support. This bounce off of the strong support level could provide an excellent opportunity to get into buy of EURO targeting 1.4910 level. (we already given a buy call on Friday)
And if the pair breaks the level and hit our stop loss then we will see a major bearish move, currently pair go up, then medium term selling pressure expected long term is Bullish
Fundamental Highlights: Strong capital positions seem to dodge the bullet.
Gone the threats of hurting from world’s financial crisis; recent Dubai debt crisis has swapped the same threatening spot to hurt financial markets, despite recent and imminent signs of economic revitalization. Different regions, from Asia to Europe, have exposure to Dubai debt, though impact of Dubai debt crisis is country-specific; not the region one. Fundamentally, currencies of U.S. and Euro zone should be least affected by it. U.K, being one of the high exposed countries, has not much currency-wise attachments to EUR. However, banks of these nations are ready to dodge the bullet on the back of their strong capital positions. Other highly exposed nations include U.A.E as well as Dubai itself. Over and above, the impact of investors’ sentiments shouldn’t be dubbed under fundamental upshots. These sentiments are not only impinging on Forex but also on equity markets throughout the countries of different regions. What can be complimentary now, is the behavior of investors who are gearing up to divest from Dubai markets and invest in other burgeoning markets where news flow is playing its part lucratively to defend the respective countries in terms of having least exposure and thus being least concerned.
For further assistance and live calls on EUR/USD you are always welcome to contact me @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This commentary, key levels and news are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
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