KSE-100 Feared Bulls bringing Bears back in the ring
High Volatility expected with low volume in early hours
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Monday, 23rd, Nov, 2009
Once again market getting out of its upward channel, yesterday market exactly closed around the critical level, and it was also observed the market tested the third given support.
All these are happening because of the present uncertainty due to NRO and the coming monetary policy, though we are not looking into any trouble making monetary policy. But investors shy to hold the positions.
Foreign investors still buying positions, just today their net buying was 865,507 USD and Mutual Funds were in buying too, they scored net buying of 889,836 USD, the shrinkage of volume added depression to the investors, though they were having an opportunity of buying their positions on cheaper price.
Now from here technically market getting into the bearish phase, the only hope for the market is to trade in positive zone today and closing above 9,247 will bring some hopes for Bulls.
Key Levels
9,425
9,368
9,320
9,286
9,247
9,216
9,176
9,144
9,119
9,086
9,037
8,990
Recommendations
Trade on key levels with the strict stop losses, market has more chances of going down from here, focus on your target buy.
Call for further assistance 021-3432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 4th Week of Nov. 2009
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I am happy for all those who accurately followed the live calls and morning briefing, Shukar Alhumdulillah; despite of volatility market made possible for the day traders to book their returns. I hope you guys now realized why I was not encouraging the banking sector all week, likewise the performance of Cement sector. But tell you the securities performance was little weird.
I see comfortable position on political side, though we did not see any development, but government gaining confidence, the opposition once again on back foot.
The New government formation in Afghanistan made Pakistan more important in region. Leverage product on its way, government comfortably raised the power tariff.
Currently NFC award meetings enhanced the brotherhood among the provinces, now the next meeting in Lahore will bring some positive results.
Now the 9,425 will be giving resistance to the market and once breaking this level, then we will be having dancing Bulls everywhere. This week we achieved some of target buys for the last quarter portfolio.
On the other hand breaking 9,229 may bring Bears back in ring. So far the FIPI and the local institution supported market by buying new positions and I am sure this support will be continued as most of the scrip still trading on discount rate.
Recommendation:
Market is in Bullish phase, it is required to be specific on your scrip selection. Please follow the morning call and our key levels for your trades.
Key Levels
9662
9572
9484
9425
9229
9123
8952
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
Foreign-awarded investment appetite should redress local threats’ upshot.
Cross-border stream of equity investments is portraying mount in financial globalization. The increasing foreign reserves coupled with improved appetite for foreign investors to invest in our capital markets would help reduce the country’s risk premium and so the cost of capital. This in turn should prop up local investors to invest in money-spinning projects and thus further boost the performance of capital market. In part of our banking sector, loan portfolios are apt to recuperate in forthcoming quarters, primarily in correspondence to the risk-avert attitude of banks toward fresh lending. Though the rebound is still at its infant stage and can witness sector’s depression on account of some prevalent factors, SBP’s monetary-freeing initiative would be a favorable driver for fresh banking rally. However, the upcoming threat for our already ramshackle industry and trade is looming in form of hike in power tariff and surging imported inflation. At local level, SPI has also increased not only for the lowest income group by 1.18 percent but also for combined group by 0.92 percent on weekly basis, bullying superfluous push in consumption levels. Threat of social insecurity is also diverting FDI towards foreign aids pushing the country under foreign dependencies. This calls for proper coordination among fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies as well as control in political and social uncertainty to at least balance the economy in severe slam stage. Until these initiatives, foreign portfolio investments and softening monetary condition should alleviate the outcomes of these threats to some extent leastways.
We congratulate our clients that our target buy levels given in Commercial Banking Report on Nov. 5 have been hit.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I hope you might have profitably traded with our accurately tested buying calls.
Pair rotation glimpsed.
Slow revival of U.S. economy signals going on rally but volatility may take its toll.
After shaking off an aborted rally aloft, Euro deflated against dollar, followed by downside in European equity markets on account of an array of second-rate corporate news and commodity price declines in coupled with revised OECD GDP forecasts. Rebound in dollar was driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s lashing comments regarding implications of changes in the value of the dollar as well as by interest rate cut for extended period.
Going forward, U.S. economic indicators depict modest recovery owing to little rise in retail auto sales, industrial production and housing. This slightly raised core inflation. Yet, the pace of growth seems too slow to keep the rotation. Unemployment is forecasted to be sub-par for at least first two quarters of the coming year. The unemployment may further bring about credit risks for consumer and real estate debt. Interest rate cut and fiscal spending are expected to settle at the same track. However, upcoming mid-term elections in 2010 would squirt volatility and hence interest rates and dollar would prone to political pressures on Fed and vagaries of foreign central bank’s support for the dollar.
Trend: Sideways – empowering Bears (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
Recommendation: Enter with Short and Follow the key levels (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.5000 and 1.4845. The selling pressure continuously pushing down the EURO, though bulls are striving hard to get back into game; very soon we are going to see the breakout in pair. Intraday possibilities become narrow; the short trades will be appreciated.
Target your short around 1.4845 and if you trail your stop loss then you can drag your target up to 1.4780.
I don’t see much of hopes for bullish sentiment in short term; you may see some retracement of the trend. Well I am more concentrating on short term trades to benefit most of the day traders.
Extract from Successful Calls Last Week
Symbol Action Short Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48546 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 21.6
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48537 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 22.5
EUR/USD S 1.49126 1.48846 11/17/2009 5:19 11/17/2009 7:57 28
EUR/USD S 1.48783 1.48308 11/20/2009 5:49 11/20/2009 7:07 47.5
EUR/USD S 1.48736 1.48308 11/20/2009 6:01 11/20/2009 7:07 42.8
Symbol Action Buy Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD B 1.4913 1.49227 11/20/2009 1:57 11/20/2009 2:04 9.7
EUR/USD B 1.48135 1.48235 11/20/2009 7:09 11/20/2009 7:12 10
To receive further live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us.
s
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I am happy for all those who accurately followed the live calls and morning briefing, Shukar Alhumdulillah; despite of volatility market made possible for the day traders to book their returns. I hope you guys now realized why I was not encouraging the banking sector all week, likewise the performance of Cement sector. But tell you the securities performance was little weird.
I see comfortable position on political side, though we did not see any development, but government gaining confidence, the opposition once again on back foot.
The New government formation in Afghanistan made Pakistan more important in region. Leverage product on its way, government comfortably raised the power tariff.
Currently NFC award meetings enhanced the brotherhood among the provinces, now the next meeting in Lahore will bring some positive results.
Now the 9,425 will be giving resistance to the market and once breaking this level, then we will be having dancing Bulls everywhere. This week we achieved some of target buys for the last quarter portfolio.
On the other hand breaking 9,229 may bring Bears back in ring. So far the FIPI and the local institution supported market by buying new positions and I am sure this support will be continued as most of the scrip still trading on discount rate.
Recommendation:
Market is in Bullish phase, it is required to be specific on your scrip selection. Please follow the morning call and our key levels for your trades.
Key Levels
9662
9572
9484
9425
9229
9123
8952
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
Foreign-awarded investment appetite should redress local threats’ upshot.
Cross-border stream of equity investments is portraying mount in financial globalization. The increasing foreign reserves coupled with improved appetite for foreign investors to invest in our capital markets would help reduce the country’s risk premium and so the cost of capital. This in turn should prop up local investors to invest in money-spinning projects and thus further boost the performance of capital market. In part of our banking sector, loan portfolios are apt to recuperate in forthcoming quarters, primarily in correspondence to the risk-avert attitude of banks toward fresh lending. Though the rebound is still at its infant stage and can witness sector’s depression on account of some prevalent factors, SBP’s monetary-freeing initiative would be a favorable driver for fresh banking rally. However, the upcoming threat for our already ramshackle industry and trade is looming in form of hike in power tariff and surging imported inflation. At local level, SPI has also increased not only for the lowest income group by 1.18 percent but also for combined group by 0.92 percent on weekly basis, bullying superfluous push in consumption levels. Threat of social insecurity is also diverting FDI towards foreign aids pushing the country under foreign dependencies. This calls for proper coordination among fiscal, monetary and foreign trade policies as well as control in political and social uncertainty to at least balance the economy in severe slam stage. Until these initiatives, foreign portfolio investments and softening monetary condition should alleviate the outcomes of these threats to some extent leastways.
We congratulate our clients that our target buy levels given in Commercial Banking Report on Nov. 5 have been hit.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Friday Nov. 20th 2009
I hope you might have profitably traded with our accurately tested buying calls.
Pair rotation glimpsed.
Slow revival of U.S. economy signals going on rally but volatility may take its toll.
After shaking off an aborted rally aloft, Euro deflated against dollar, followed by downside in European equity markets on account of an array of second-rate corporate news and commodity price declines in coupled with revised OECD GDP forecasts. Rebound in dollar was driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke’s lashing comments regarding implications of changes in the value of the dollar as well as by interest rate cut for extended period.
Going forward, U.S. economic indicators depict modest recovery owing to little rise in retail auto sales, industrial production and housing. This slightly raised core inflation. Yet, the pace of growth seems too slow to keep the rotation. Unemployment is forecasted to be sub-par for at least first two quarters of the coming year. The unemployment may further bring about credit risks for consumer and real estate debt. Interest rate cut and fiscal spending are expected to settle at the same track. However, upcoming mid-term elections in 2010 would squirt volatility and hence interest rates and dollar would prone to political pressures on Fed and vagaries of foreign central bank’s support for the dollar.
Trend: Sideways – empowering Bears (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
Recommendation: Enter with Short and Follow the key levels (time 2:36pm Pak.Time)
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.5000 and 1.4845. The selling pressure continuously pushing down the EURO, though bulls are striving hard to get back into game; very soon we are going to see the breakout in pair. Intraday possibilities become narrow; the short trades will be appreciated.
Target your short around 1.4845 and if you trail your stop loss then you can drag your target up to 1.4780.
I don’t see much of hopes for bullish sentiment in short term; you may see some retracement of the trend. Well I am more concentrating on short term trades to benefit most of the day traders.
Extract from Successful Calls Last Week
Symbol Action Short Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48546 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 21.6
EUR/USD S 1.48762 1.48537 11/20/2009 5:18 11/20/2009 7:01 22.5
EUR/USD S 1.49126 1.48846 11/17/2009 5:19 11/17/2009 7:57 28
EUR/USD S 1.48783 1.48308 11/20/2009 5:49 11/20/2009 7:07 47.5
EUR/USD S 1.48736 1.48308 11/20/2009 6:01 11/20/2009 7:07 42.8
Symbol Action Buy Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD B 1.4913 1.49227 11/20/2009 1:57 11/20/2009 2:04 9.7
EUR/USD B 1.48135 1.48235 11/20/2009 7:09 11/20/2009 7:12 10
To receive further live calls on EURO/USD with stop loss, please contact us.
s
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Current View on Karachi Stock Exchange
KSE-100: –Profit taking still not over - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Do not loose Hopes, but if selling continuous below 9,101 then get out
Bulls initiated with the power as market started, but later on lost their control in front of Bears exactly from our 2nd resistance level. Market still got the inflow of USD 6,185,301 but the mutual fund observed selling around USD 4,985,279. Still market did not reached around my getting out call, as bull manage to hold 9,137 by supporting. As indicated in my last call to stay away from banking; banks are only recommended if you see your target buy price.
Now the Thursday is very important to evaluate the status of our portfolio, though market already took comfortable points for its intraday correction, with allowing the traders for profit taking. Trading below 9067 will take market under complete control of bears; I wish market would not see more then 50 negative points during trade.
It is required to have some bullish activities on Thursday to stay in the channel; I guess market will able to decide its trend today. The political and economic development may bring some buying. Unfortunately the local institutions are feared of buying; in fact it is good time for specially institution for having their focus buying.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price.
Key Levels for Today will be:
9,360
9,315
9,276
9,230
9,185
9,145
9,101
9,067
9,020
8,987
8,922
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Focus on Target Buying
KSE-100: – Consistent Profit taking observed - Hold your positions
Do not loose Hopes - Sit tight for the targets
Once again with the grace of Almighty my selling call honored and I am happy for all those who followed my profit taking call on 9,350. and I am sure whoever is getting my scrip analysis are having fun tonight as most of the scrip exactly went down from the given level.
I am not saying market is Bearish from here, Market still got the inflow of USD 4,489,475 today basically it was a regular profit taking call and scrip goes down to their support where it is still good to buy. Do not panic here, but it is wise to off load most of your positions if you see market trading below 9,110 and closing below this level will wake up bears.
Intraday traders must follow the key levels for their trading, and the focus buyer look for their target buying they might get some of the scrip around their target price. Volatility will exist and possibility of shrinkage in volume: I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish;
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index
Key Levels
9,491
9,422
9,385
9,334
9,249
9,204
9,178
9,110
9,064
8,991
8,946
8,879
Follow the last day scrip analysis, key levels are same. Try off loading your positions, and buy back half of it when you see a dip
Call me for any further query at 0213-432 2350 or 0345-276 8680 email @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Have a good trade.
Regards
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Bhangras in Karachi Stock Exchange
KSE-100: Bullish – Bhangras of Bulls recorded
Secure traders advised profit taking around 9,350. Good to buy between 9,240 and 9,280 make your stop loss of 25 points below the buying range. Currently market targeting 9,640. Market welcomed inflow of 4,455,955 US dollars today and mutual funds were so vibrant scored positively 6,259,923 US dollars alone for market. Multiple developments make comfortable takeoff.
Breaking and closing below 9150 will be the indication for exit and 9,080 will be the exit for delivery holders.
For new readers some of my last day forecast:
I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index.
Call for more detail 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 email: safelyinvest@gmail.com
Key Levels for KSE-100
9,641
9,542
9,496
9,422
9,350
9,272
9,198
9,151
9,079
9,020
8,942
8,838
8,740
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS
Secure traders advised profit taking around 9,350. Good to buy between 9,240 and 9,280 make your stop loss of 25 points below the buying range. Currently market targeting 9,640. Market welcomed inflow of 4,455,955 US dollars today and mutual funds were so vibrant scored positively 6,259,923 US dollars alone for market. Multiple developments make comfortable takeoff.
Breaking and closing below 9150 will be the indication for exit and 9,080 will be the exit for delivery holders.
For new readers some of my last day forecast:
I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Recommendations:
Please follow the scrip analysis under the light of above commentary on KSE-100 Index.
Call for more detail 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 email: safelyinvest@gmail.com
Key Levels for KSE-100
9,641
9,542
9,496
9,422
9,350
9,272
9,198
9,151
9,079
9,020
8,942
8,838
8,740
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Dancing Bulls in Karachi Stock Exchange
Weekly Forecast for KSE for 3rd Week of Nov. 2009
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Shukkar Allhumdollialh market was able to close 1.34% above the last week closing. Well I do not call this a complete sign of bullish trend, but I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
I like to tell you that market got fair support but trend is not stabilized yet. We are going to see much of resistance between 9132 and 9175, the stability in trend will occur after breaking 9245.
Increase in power tariff may rose the inflation, the economic side of the country is still not satisfying the investors, we do not see any concrete actions and decisions for the development of the country, manufacturing concerns still under crisis, couple of sectors are under strike, the shortage of gas may hurt fertilizers in future, ongoing textile sector problems added up with the CNG crisis. The arrests of so many terrorist from different cities make people think of their network in the country and make investor think of the security of their life and investment.
Recommendation:
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions for now and check their morning calls for profit taking. You might see range bound activities until market strongly breaks the 9245 this week. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns. Monday market must close above 9038.
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Buying levels tested for banks.
Opportunity is ahead to turn and stay green for long.
Most of the scrip tested with our buying levels given for banking sector, enabling investors to recognize the chance of profit taking in the critical nascent stage of the sector’s recovery.
Going forward, opportunity is ahead for KSE-100 index to stay green for long on back of some prospective sectors.
Among them, progress can be ascribed to OMCs which are probable to reshuffling and can brace their cash position with the streamlining demand of furnace oil backed by expanding power sector. Rebound in Large-scale manufacturing would also foster OMCs’ performance by improving HSD demand. Though the recent 24% decline in sector’s topline was due to the oil volatility, acceleration in global economic outlook may raise average oil prices in coming years, creating fortuity for OMCs in terms of inventory gains to offset losses. Besides, with the government initiative to resolve the chaos of circular debt of Rs. 500 billion, OMCs would stand as beneficiary.
With regard to increasing foreign inflows, remittances are continued to remain vigorous. An effective scheme has also been launched by SBP to entice banking sector for securing further remittances which would facilitate banks in sustaining non-interest income. Over and above, the recent practice of SBP to provide liquidity on weekly basis is expected to extend to a higher maturity time which would not only lead to liquidity uphold for longer phase but also reshuffle private sector credit growth.
At macro level, third IMF review is on the move and should lead to the release of the next tranche of around US$850 mn over the next few weeks. IMF endorsement on country’s economic performance has played most of its part to reinstate the confidence of local and foreign investors.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Weekly Commentary
Euro zone crowding out of the slump; buyers’ crowd moving to Euro against Dollar
Euro/USD pair has lost upward momentum on the back of worst than expected U.S. data released, as well as little bearish U.S. indices. The resultant risk-averse sentiment of traders is likely to favor this plunge.
Beneath the external market’s antics, the pair is expected to follow the same track intrinsically. High unemployment rate, low wage growth, and shrinking credit demand in U.S. is moving its currency under pressure and weakening investor’s confidence as well. This, in couple with decreased interest rate may cause hot money to leave the country. Euro, on the other side, has moved out of the worst; although the recovery is flat, the GDP of euro area as a whole has raised by 0.4% after five successive declines. This has given room to ECB to cut interest rate which may award the euro an additional boost.
Some of Our Successful Buying Calls Last Week
15 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Short. Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
Euro/USD Short 1.4909 1.4897 11/13/2009 14:51 11/13/2009 15:07 0.0012
46 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Long. Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD Long 1.4834 1.4862 11/13/2009 9:56 11/13/2009 10:42 0.0028
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Market Technically: Bullish
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Shukkar Allhumdollialh market was able to close 1.34% above the last week closing. Well I do not call this a complete sign of bullish trend, but I can see some fresh and vibrant buying and developing bullish sentiments from here, it is time for everybody to reschedule their portfolios targeting the Feb-Mar, 2010, as most of the scrip are trading on discounted rate with desire to go up, and some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
I like to tell you that market got fair support but trend is not stabilized yet. We are going to see much of resistance between 9132 and 9175, the stability in trend will occur after breaking 9245.
Increase in power tariff may rose the inflation, the economic side of the country is still not satisfying the investors, we do not see any concrete actions and decisions for the development of the country, manufacturing concerns still under crisis, couple of sectors are under strike, the shortage of gas may hurt fertilizers in future, ongoing textile sector problems added up with the CNG crisis. The arrests of so many terrorist from different cities make people think of their network in the country and make investor think of the security of their life and investment.
Recommendation:
Market is in Early Bullish mode, Volatility will exist until the market achieves its minimum required volumes; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions for now and check their morning calls for profit taking. You might see range bound activities until market strongly breaks the 9245 this week. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns. Monday market must close above 9038.
Market Fundamentals: Weekly Snapshot
By
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Buying levels tested for banks.
Opportunity is ahead to turn and stay green for long.
Most of the scrip tested with our buying levels given for banking sector, enabling investors to recognize the chance of profit taking in the critical nascent stage of the sector’s recovery.
Going forward, opportunity is ahead for KSE-100 index to stay green for long on back of some prospective sectors.
Among them, progress can be ascribed to OMCs which are probable to reshuffling and can brace their cash position with the streamlining demand of furnace oil backed by expanding power sector. Rebound in Large-scale manufacturing would also foster OMCs’ performance by improving HSD demand. Though the recent 24% decline in sector’s topline was due to the oil volatility, acceleration in global economic outlook may raise average oil prices in coming years, creating fortuity for OMCs in terms of inventory gains to offset losses. Besides, with the government initiative to resolve the chaos of circular debt of Rs. 500 billion, OMCs would stand as beneficiary.
With regard to increasing foreign inflows, remittances are continued to remain vigorous. An effective scheme has also been launched by SBP to entice banking sector for securing further remittances which would facilitate banks in sustaining non-interest income. Over and above, the recent practice of SBP to provide liquidity on weekly basis is expected to extend to a higher maturity time which would not only lead to liquidity uphold for longer phase but also reshuffle private sector credit growth.
At macro level, third IMF review is on the move and should lead to the release of the next tranche of around US$850 mn over the next few weeks. IMF endorsement on country’s economic performance has played most of its part to reinstate the confidence of local and foreign investors.
Forex
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Saturday Nov. 14th 2009
Weekly Commentary
Euro zone crowding out of the slump; buyers’ crowd moving to Euro against Dollar
Euro/USD pair has lost upward momentum on the back of worst than expected U.S. data released, as well as little bearish U.S. indices. The resultant risk-averse sentiment of traders is likely to favor this plunge.
Beneath the external market’s antics, the pair is expected to follow the same track intrinsically. High unemployment rate, low wage growth, and shrinking credit demand in U.S. is moving its currency under pressure and weakening investor’s confidence as well. This, in couple with decreased interest rate may cause hot money to leave the country. Euro, on the other side, has moved out of the worst; although the recovery is flat, the GDP of euro area as a whole has raised by 0.4% after five successive declines. This has given room to ECB to cut interest rate which may award the euro an additional boost.
Some of Our Successful Buying Calls Last Week
15 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Short. Price Buying Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
Euro/USD Short 1.4909 1.4897 11/13/2009 14:51 11/13/2009 15:07 0.0012
46 minutes trade in Euro USD
Symbol Action Long. Price Selling Price Entry Time Exit Time Achieved Pips
EUR/USD Long 1.4834 1.4862 11/13/2009 9:56 11/13/2009 10:42 0.0028
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
View KSE and Forex at Your Desk
View KSE and Forex at Your Desk
KSE
Morning Call for Friday 13th November, 2009
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 – Market swallowed current selling pressure
Still too much of excitement is not appreciated
Intraday buyers will see some fair moves today
Yesterday market after testing one of our resistance level caught under prevailing selling pressure, but daring buyers come forward to defeat fear of the market, thanks to Foreign investors and Mutual fund for helping buyers by their inflow of USD 1,135,929 and 2,333,512 respectively.
Still the possibility of volatile movement exist in the market, the buyers will be appreciated for buying on early dip and profit taking recommended in first half if they see the 9105, buying back in second half is recommended only after analyzing the first half movement.
Bulls may get sign of relief above 9152 and later on trading above 9245 will probably stabilize the market in next week.
Most of the discounted scrip is in Bullish phase, market will be ideal for the day traders, if the scrip is selective.
Closing below 8810 for last day of the week will bring lot of depression for the bulls.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,000
8,937
8,891
8,854
8,817
8,777
Forex
**********Delayed Flash**********
EUR/USD Call by Safely Invest
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
Short 11/12/2009 6:52 1.49414 1.4865 Target achieved 12 - 13
1st Call Short 11/12/2009 7:49 1.49152 1.4875 Target achieved 12 - 13
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
2nd Call Short 11/12/2009 13:34 1.48599 1.48306 Target achieved at
11/12/2009 15:38
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
KSE
Morning Call for Friday 13th November, 2009
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 – Market swallowed current selling pressure
Still too much of excitement is not appreciated
Intraday buyers will see some fair moves today
Yesterday market after testing one of our resistance level caught under prevailing selling pressure, but daring buyers come forward to defeat fear of the market, thanks to Foreign investors and Mutual fund for helping buyers by their inflow of USD 1,135,929 and 2,333,512 respectively.
Still the possibility of volatile movement exist in the market, the buyers will be appreciated for buying on early dip and profit taking recommended in first half if they see the 9105, buying back in second half is recommended only after analyzing the first half movement.
Bulls may get sign of relief above 9152 and later on trading above 9245 will probably stabilize the market in next week.
Most of the discounted scrip is in Bullish phase, market will be ideal for the day traders, if the scrip is selective.
Closing below 8810 for last day of the week will bring lot of depression for the bulls.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,000
8,937
8,891
8,854
8,817
8,777
Forex
**********Delayed Flash**********
EUR/USD Call by Safely Invest
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
Short 11/12/2009 6:52 1.49414 1.4865 Target achieved 12 - 13
1st Call Short 11/12/2009 7:49 1.49152 1.4875 Target achieved 12 - 13
Call Short time Short Closed Closing time
2nd Call Short 11/12/2009 13:34 1.48599 1.48306 Target achieved at
11/12/2009 15:38
Call for further assistance 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Morning call for Thursday, 12th November, 2009
Morning call for Thursday, 12th November, 2009
KSE-100
Wound is not healed yet – so be careful – buyers do not get excited!
FIPI Outflow USD 4,593,479
That’s true market was in immense pressure and that proved with the negative opening and testing one of our level as a low, and then from there market bounced by the bull power. It is also observed that market resisted twice around the 8844 level and later it breaks with the bull power, and at the end market traded around the level of 8916 and closed on the same after making a high of 8936.
Thanks Almighty the market leave 8765 far behind, so this is the healthier sign for right now, but traders do not get excited, because market still got the sign of high volatility and this may hurt your stop losses, Let me tell you folks that some panic selling recorded by the foreign investors around USD 4,593,479 just for today so be careful, I am still not believing the stability of the trend.
Trading positive all the day (Thursday) may give some strength to the buyers; high volatility will still be the issue with the remaining selling pressure.
Still lot of hard work required for attacking the level of 9150 and breaking this level may increase the volumes also.
Most of the discounted scrip is in early Bullish phase, market will be ideal for day traders, profit taking must be your main concern today. Specific Scrip selection is required.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,035
8,988
8,958
8,902
8,806
8,765
For further analysis on any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
KSE-100
Wound is not healed yet – so be careful – buyers do not get excited!
FIPI Outflow USD 4,593,479
That’s true market was in immense pressure and that proved with the negative opening and testing one of our level as a low, and then from there market bounced by the bull power. It is also observed that market resisted twice around the 8844 level and later it breaks with the bull power, and at the end market traded around the level of 8916 and closed on the same after making a high of 8936.
Thanks Almighty the market leave 8765 far behind, so this is the healthier sign for right now, but traders do not get excited, because market still got the sign of high volatility and this may hurt your stop losses, Let me tell you folks that some panic selling recorded by the foreign investors around USD 4,593,479 just for today so be careful, I am still not believing the stability of the trend.
Trading positive all the day (Thursday) may give some strength to the buyers; high volatility will still be the issue with the remaining selling pressure.
Still lot of hard work required for attacking the level of 9150 and breaking this level may increase the volumes also.
Most of the discounted scrip is in early Bullish phase, market will be ideal for day traders, profit taking must be your main concern today. Specific Scrip selection is required.
Key Levels
9,152
9,105
9,035
8,988
8,958
8,902
8,806
8,765
For further analysis on any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Morning Call for Wednesday 11th, Nov, 2009
Morning Call for Wednesday 11th, Nov, 2009
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Nov, 10th, 2009
KSE-100 - Pressure, Pressure and Pressure
Market is in immense pressure, volumes were squeezed, in fact we do not see any new economic disaster right now, though we are surviving under the past and present economic crisis along with the political uncertainty. Well in my weekly report I warned that any negative trading on first day of week can add more selling pressure and this happened.
Now I do not see much of support immediately, but the last hope will come if the market get any kind of support around 8765 and trade all day above this level, that might give some sigh of relieve to the depressed and feared investors.
Daring actions required by the mutual funds and volume buyers, but again unfortunately it is observed that Mutual fund recorded sell of USD 2,804,668 and foreign investor’s portfolio also followed by selling USD 1,622,768.
I tell you guys if the 8,765 level not honored then we will be having roller coaster rides and this time these are in down trend.
Key Levels
9,098
8,983
8,916
8,844
8,793
8,765
8,675
8,530
I do not recommend any trade for now
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
By:
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Nov, 10th, 2009
KSE-100 - Pressure, Pressure and Pressure
Market is in immense pressure, volumes were squeezed, in fact we do not see any new economic disaster right now, though we are surviving under the past and present economic crisis along with the political uncertainty. Well in my weekly report I warned that any negative trading on first day of week can add more selling pressure and this happened.
Now I do not see much of support immediately, but the last hope will come if the market get any kind of support around 8765 and trade all day above this level, that might give some sigh of relieve to the depressed and feared investors.
Daring actions required by the mutual funds and volume buyers, but again unfortunately it is observed that Mutual fund recorded sell of USD 2,804,668 and foreign investor’s portfolio also followed by selling USD 1,622,768.
I tell you guys if the 8,765 level not honored then we will be having roller coaster rides and this time these are in down trend.
Key Levels
9,098
8,983
8,916
8,844
8,793
8,765
8,675
8,530
I do not recommend any trade for now
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Domestic and Global Updates
Domestic and Global Updates
By Safelyinvest
Domestic News
• Bank holiday on 9th, November.
• Nishat power plant to start working today
• Naveed Ismail appointed KES MD
• SBP approves merger
Government asked to stop import of cotton, yarn
• JSCL increases stake in PICT
• US jobless rate rises to over 10%
• Did PSO get oil from banned source?
• President advised to keep himself away from NRO beneficiaries
• NRO beneficiaries: Sindh government asked to compile data
• Nepal offers electricity to Pakistan
• IMF talks: Tarin expects to get $1.2 billion next month
• US Karachi consulate resumes visa service
• Americans Dressed as Afghans Caught With Illegal Weapons
Global News
U.S. Stocks End Two-Week Slide as Manufacturing, Home Sales Top Forecasts
UCBH Holdings' Bank Is Seized, Becomes 120th U.S. Lender Closed This Year
Buffett's `Wake-Up Call' to Berkshire Managers May Signal More Cost Cuts
Geithner, Brown Split on Transaction Tax as G-20 Seeks Rebalanced Economy Group of 20 governments split on whether to tax financial trading as part of a broader strategy to ensure the global economy’s expansion is less crisis-prone. Geithner Says `Continued Policy Support' Required for Economic Recovery Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. economy requires “continued policy support” to recover from a financial and economic crisis that has pushed unemployment to its highest level since 1983.
G-20 Members Will Seek Asian Currency Gains to Solve Imbalances, UBS Says The Group of 20 finance chiefs will likely push for Asian nations to allow their currencies to appreciate when they meet in Scotland this weekend, according to UBS AG, the world’s second-largest foreign-exchange trader.
IMF Says Dollar Being Used to Fund `Carry Trade,' May Still Be Overvalued The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” across the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.
Consumer Credit Declines More Than Forecast Amid Mounting U.S. Job Losses U.S. consumer credit fell in September for an eighth straight month, the longest series of declines on record, as thousands of Americans lost their jobs and banks tightened access to loans.
Canada Loses 43,200 Jobs in October, Unemployment Rate Increases to 8.6% Canadian employers unexpectedly fired workers in October and the unemployment rate rose more than expected, suggesting the U.S.’s largest trading partner hasn’t fully recovered from the recession that began last year.
Saudi Arabian Shares Advance as Sabic, Yanbu National Petrochemical Gain Saudi Arabian shares rose for the fourth session in five, led by Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s biggest petrochemicals maker, known as Sabic.
Emerging-Market Equity Funds Post First Worldwide Outflows Since June All four major developing-nation equity fund groups posted outflows concurrently for the first time since June on concern the pace of the global economic recovery may not justify valuations, EPFR Global said.
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
By Safelyinvest
Domestic News
• Bank holiday on 9th, November.
• Nishat power plant to start working today
• Naveed Ismail appointed KES MD
• SBP approves merger
Government asked to stop import of cotton, yarn
• JSCL increases stake in PICT
• US jobless rate rises to over 10%
• Did PSO get oil from banned source?
• President advised to keep himself away from NRO beneficiaries
• NRO beneficiaries: Sindh government asked to compile data
• Nepal offers electricity to Pakistan
• IMF talks: Tarin expects to get $1.2 billion next month
• US Karachi consulate resumes visa service
• Americans Dressed as Afghans Caught With Illegal Weapons
Global News
U.S. Stocks End Two-Week Slide as Manufacturing, Home Sales Top Forecasts
UCBH Holdings' Bank Is Seized, Becomes 120th U.S. Lender Closed This Year
Buffett's `Wake-Up Call' to Berkshire Managers May Signal More Cost Cuts
Geithner, Brown Split on Transaction Tax as G-20 Seeks Rebalanced Economy Group of 20 governments split on whether to tax financial trading as part of a broader strategy to ensure the global economy’s expansion is less crisis-prone. Geithner Says `Continued Policy Support' Required for Economic Recovery Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. economy requires “continued policy support” to recover from a financial and economic crisis that has pushed unemployment to its highest level since 1983.
G-20 Members Will Seek Asian Currency Gains to Solve Imbalances, UBS Says The Group of 20 finance chiefs will likely push for Asian nations to allow their currencies to appreciate when they meet in Scotland this weekend, according to UBS AG, the world’s second-largest foreign-exchange trader.
IMF Says Dollar Being Used to Fund `Carry Trade,' May Still Be Overvalued The International Monetary Fund said traders are probably using the dollar to fund “carry trades” across the world and the currency may still be overvalued even after its slide this year.
Consumer Credit Declines More Than Forecast Amid Mounting U.S. Job Losses U.S. consumer credit fell in September for an eighth straight month, the longest series of declines on record, as thousands of Americans lost their jobs and banks tightened access to loans.
Canada Loses 43,200 Jobs in October, Unemployment Rate Increases to 8.6% Canadian employers unexpectedly fired workers in October and the unemployment rate rose more than expected, suggesting the U.S.’s largest trading partner hasn’t fully recovered from the recession that began last year.
Saudi Arabian Shares Advance as Sabic, Yanbu National Petrochemical Gain Saudi Arabian shares rose for the fourth session in five, led by Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s biggest petrochemicals maker, known as Sabic.
Emerging-Market Equity Funds Post First Worldwide Outflows Since June All four major developing-nation equity fund groups posted outflows concurrently for the first time since June on concern the pace of the global economic recovery may not justify valuations, EPFR Global said.
For more updates, news and views on Karachi Stock Exchange
Please Call @ 021-3432 2359
0345-276 8680
Thanks
Khalid Saifuddin
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Karachi Stock Exchange and Forex View
Technical Forecast for KSE-100
For the 2nd Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday, November 7th, 2009
KSE-100
Recap of past week:
Unfortunately the selling pressure continues this week, though it was observed that the mutual funds were also took part in buying with the foreign investors, but on Friday both the FIPI and mutual funds were in selling by USD $ 1,844,292 and USD $ 2,441,285 respectively. Comparing with the last week the weekly FIPI decline by USD 3,169,394 and the KSE-100 index volume Decline by 281,020,736 shares. The law and order situation was also the major source for shattering confidence of the investors, further pressure added by the ongoing political crisis. It is observed that investors were discussing the options available for the future administrative setup.
Market Technically:
Friday the market closed around one of our given level, in fact this level has the ability to bounce the market back into its previous channel, and it will only happen if the market trade positively all day on Monday. The trend is still not established so any positive development can take market back into the bullish hopes. And I also like to add that negative closing on Monday will add new selling pressure to the existing selling pressure.
The coming week may bring some progress as it is recorded that the inflation rate is declined and the leverage product is about to announce. Still the net of FIPI is in positive, here I see the responsibility of local institutions to come forward and support the market, as most of the scrip are trading on discount rate and the some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Above all the achievements of Pakistan army is remarkable in Wazirstan operation. Most of the nations realized that it is required to strengthen the Pakistani economy along with the moral support if they really like to eliminate the global terror threat.
Recommendation:
Currently market is in bearish mode but Monday will decide the move of the week; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions until the final selling call. You might see range bound activities this week. Increasing volume may give some confidence to the traders. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. You may see some dancing bulls over 9265.In fact the 9150 – 9250 is the crucial zone for the market
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,145 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,448
8,937
Key Levels
9,250
9,155
9,104
9,026
8,888
8,791
8,433
Portfolio Investment: Weekly Snapshot
Market was under selling pressure in past week, though the mix bags of results announced depicted satisfactory performance of some scrip; in fact fewer were remarkable.
What’s more, the upcoming leverage product in KSE will also boost volume and market capitalization may shift the trend northward.
For oil sector, inching up trend in the international oil price plus recent discoveries and exploration are expected to fortify the top line.
For banks, credit cost is expected to decline and liquidity position should improve in 2QFY10 due to relatively lower net liquidity drain through T-bill auctions.
At macro level, notable drop in headline inflation to a single digit portrays spring back of our economy.
Foreign aid with the goal to waive twin deficits can prove to be handy for external account deficit but unfortunately not for fiscal deficit due to dismal tax collections and higher security related expenditure. In this regard textile sector – contributing 55-60% to total exports and 8% to GDP – has begun to rebound indicated by 7% growth in first three months of current financial year. This bounce-back would be propped up by expected drop in discount rate by SBP. However, raise in cotton prices may lift up cost but it can be well overcome by upturn in demand for our textile products in international market.
Why trade Forex
We welcome all vibrant traders to come and join the world of opportunities, Forex market never sleep in working days, with the ability to trade around the clock, currency traders have the advantage of customizing their own trading schedule; they can usually get in or out of the market at any time without waiting for an opening bell or encountering a market gap. While trading stocks after usual market hours is possible, very often that possibility is negated by a lack of order flow or a drastic widening of the bid-ask spread. You are not required to pay any commissions, and the most exciting offer is the liberty of short selling, trading 24 hours in working days with all open information about the market.
Forex market is the largest market of the world by its size; even New York stock exchange cannot beat the forex, and tell you forex gives you the ability to trade the world largest economies by trading their currencies.
Safely Invest offer you to explore the opportunities in EURUSD pair I call all of the readers of my report to contact us for further future call, we send live calls to all euro/usd spot traders on daily basis. Here I can tell you it is better to think before making any decision; we like to have all of our members to do technical trading. We do not appreciate trading during the report hours. Our buy calls are with the stop loss and we leave target open for the traders to make their own decision by analyzing the market pressure.
Key Levels
1.5074
1.5056
1.5021
1.5010
1.4993
1.4925
1.4892
1.4873
1.4855
1.4841
1.4802
1.4787
1.4770
1.4754
1.4736
1.4724
1.4692
1.4651
1.4614
1.4472
1.4060
1.3989
1.3784
1.3437
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
For the 2nd Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday, November 7th, 2009
KSE-100
Recap of past week:
Unfortunately the selling pressure continues this week, though it was observed that the mutual funds were also took part in buying with the foreign investors, but on Friday both the FIPI and mutual funds were in selling by USD $ 1,844,292 and USD $ 2,441,285 respectively. Comparing with the last week the weekly FIPI decline by USD 3,169,394 and the KSE-100 index volume Decline by 281,020,736 shares. The law and order situation was also the major source for shattering confidence of the investors, further pressure added by the ongoing political crisis. It is observed that investors were discussing the options available for the future administrative setup.
Market Technically:
Friday the market closed around one of our given level, in fact this level has the ability to bounce the market back into its previous channel, and it will only happen if the market trade positively all day on Monday. The trend is still not established so any positive development can take market back into the bullish hopes. And I also like to add that negative closing on Monday will add new selling pressure to the existing selling pressure.
The coming week may bring some progress as it is recorded that the inflation rate is declined and the leverage product is about to announce. Still the net of FIPI is in positive, here I see the responsibility of local institutions to come forward and support the market, as most of the scrip are trading on discount rate and the some sectors are about to perform good in their last quarter.
Above all the achievements of Pakistan army is remarkable in Wazirstan operation. Most of the nations realized that it is required to strengthen the Pakistani economy along with the moral support if they really like to eliminate the global terror threat.
Recommendation:
Currently market is in bearish mode but Monday will decide the move of the week; I recommend all of my traders/investors to hold their positions until the final selling call. You might see range bound activities this week. Increasing volume may give some confidence to the traders. Focus on key levels and the portfolio investment with specific selection of scrip. You may see some dancing bulls over 9265.In fact the 9150 – 9250 is the crucial zone for the market
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,145 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyers for high returns.
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,448
8,937
Key Levels
9,250
9,155
9,104
9,026
8,888
8,791
8,433
Portfolio Investment: Weekly Snapshot
Market was under selling pressure in past week, though the mix bags of results announced depicted satisfactory performance of some scrip; in fact fewer were remarkable.
What’s more, the upcoming leverage product in KSE will also boost volume and market capitalization may shift the trend northward.
For oil sector, inching up trend in the international oil price plus recent discoveries and exploration are expected to fortify the top line.
For banks, credit cost is expected to decline and liquidity position should improve in 2QFY10 due to relatively lower net liquidity drain through T-bill auctions.
At macro level, notable drop in headline inflation to a single digit portrays spring back of our economy.
Foreign aid with the goal to waive twin deficits can prove to be handy for external account deficit but unfortunately not for fiscal deficit due to dismal tax collections and higher security related expenditure. In this regard textile sector – contributing 55-60% to total exports and 8% to GDP – has begun to rebound indicated by 7% growth in first three months of current financial year. This bounce-back would be propped up by expected drop in discount rate by SBP. However, raise in cotton prices may lift up cost but it can be well overcome by upturn in demand for our textile products in international market.
Why trade Forex
We welcome all vibrant traders to come and join the world of opportunities, Forex market never sleep in working days, with the ability to trade around the clock, currency traders have the advantage of customizing their own trading schedule; they can usually get in or out of the market at any time without waiting for an opening bell or encountering a market gap. While trading stocks after usual market hours is possible, very often that possibility is negated by a lack of order flow or a drastic widening of the bid-ask spread. You are not required to pay any commissions, and the most exciting offer is the liberty of short selling, trading 24 hours in working days with all open information about the market.
Forex market is the largest market of the world by its size; even New York stock exchange cannot beat the forex, and tell you forex gives you the ability to trade the world largest economies by trading their currencies.
Safely Invest offer you to explore the opportunities in EURUSD pair I call all of the readers of my report to contact us for further future call, we send live calls to all euro/usd spot traders on daily basis. Here I can tell you it is better to think before making any decision; we like to have all of our members to do technical trading. We do not appreciate trading during the report hours. Our buy calls are with the stop loss and we leave target open for the traders to make their own decision by analyzing the market pressure.
Key Levels
1.5074
1.5056
1.5021
1.5010
1.4993
1.4925
1.4892
1.4873
1.4855
1.4841
1.4802
1.4787
1.4770
1.4754
1.4736
1.4724
1.4692
1.4651
1.4614
1.4472
1.4060
1.3989
1.3784
1.3437
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Dhian for Thursday November 5th, 2009
Dhian for Thursday November 5th, 2009
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 - Market is out of depression right now
Foreign Buying of USD 4,433,853 makes mutual funds buy for USD 3,067,062.
Intraday with same day profit taking suggested. I wish we do not see any more explosions inshallah.
• Bulls will get crazy after breaking 9265.
• Closing below 9100 may get some bears back in ring.
Profit taking recommended around 9370. You might get your positions back in cheaper price.
Last resort for the market 8,925 (if closed below)
Key Levels
9,383
9,265
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
KSE-100 - Market is out of depression right now
Foreign Buying of USD 4,433,853 makes mutual funds buy for USD 3,067,062.
Intraday with same day profit taking suggested. I wish we do not see any more explosions inshallah.
• Bulls will get crazy after breaking 9265.
• Closing below 9100 may get some bears back in ring.
Profit taking recommended around 9370. You might get your positions back in cheaper price.
Last resort for the market 8,925 (if closed below)
Key Levels
9,383
9,265
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Karachi Stock Exchange Activity "4-11-09"
Dhian for Wednesday November 4th, 2009
KSE-100 - Market still under selling pressure
Foreign Buying of USD 1,014,743 still not able to convince bulls for buying. Well at least the mutual fund stop selling, that may give little energy to the local buyers today.
I wish we do not see any more explosions. I tell you guys do not worry about the NRO,
• To get out completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9142.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9015
• Closing below 8925 will be disaster for this week
• Minimum weekly closing above 9265 for bull hopes
Key Levels
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
8,855
8,765
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
KSE-100 - Market still under selling pressure
Foreign Buying of USD 1,014,743 still not able to convince bulls for buying. Well at least the mutual fund stop selling, that may give little energy to the local buyers today.
I wish we do not see any more explosions. I tell you guys do not worry about the NRO,
• To get out completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9142.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9015
• Closing below 8925 will be disaster for this week
• Minimum weekly closing above 9265 for bull hopes
Key Levels
9,238
9,192
9,142
9,035
8,975
8,925
8,855
8,765
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, November 2, 2009
No Recommendation for Tuesday, November 03, 2009
No Recommendation for Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Hi Folks!
I don’t have much to say for your stocks right now, all the stop losses were hit; it is required to analyze the market in coming days and make the exit strategy if the pressure continues.
Immense selling pressure recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange, in early hours the Pindi blast added fear to the investors, then later on the news channel reported about the statement of Mr. Altaf Hussain which added more pressure to the market.
All striving bulls caught into trouble, and ultimately market closed in negatively. This pressure may continue, how long this will go nobody can guarantee but here it is necessary to analyze the future options for the country’s administration.
WOW! The unconvincing visit of Ms. Hilary Clinton put the political forces into new trouble, which will give a hard time to the present government, and you know the Pak army is already engaged in War.
So nobody is counting on Gen. Kiani, do we have choice to bring the alternative “that’s the vital question at present”
Follow the Monday briefing for key levels and be focused on market and current affairs for the future strategy
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Hi Folks!
I don’t have much to say for your stocks right now, all the stop losses were hit; it is required to analyze the market in coming days and make the exit strategy if the pressure continues.
Immense selling pressure recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange, in early hours the Pindi blast added fear to the investors, then later on the news channel reported about the statement of Mr. Altaf Hussain which added more pressure to the market.
All striving bulls caught into trouble, and ultimately market closed in negatively. This pressure may continue, how long this will go nobody can guarantee but here it is necessary to analyze the future options for the country’s administration.
WOW! The unconvincing visit of Ms. Hilary Clinton put the political forces into new trouble, which will give a hard time to the present government, and you know the Pak army is already engaged in War.
So nobody is counting on Gen. Kiani, do we have choice to bring the alternative “that’s the vital question at present”
Follow the Monday briefing for key levels and be focused on market and current affairs for the future strategy
Khalid Saifuddin
SafelyInvest
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Technical Forecast for KSE-100 For the First Week of Nov, 2009
Technical Forecast for KSE-100
For the First Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Saturday, October 31, 2009
Hi Folks:
The whole week market was under heavy selling pressure by mutual funds, and the Peshawar blast added more to the market. Though the buyer were striving hard to support market and the visit of US foreign minister was also scheduled to help the country’s current uncertain political and economic situation, I am pretty optimistic that her visit will impact positively to the economy and it is observed that Ms Clinton will be able to suggest the US administration to rectify their policy to secure Pakistani interest. I really like to request the KSE and the regulators to please come forward and introduce some new products and do some road shows for the awareness of the local investors.
Market is bearish for now; Foreign investment still adding more and more to our reserves but we still like to have some institutional buying and control law and order situation in the country to stabilize the market.
Market Possibilities.
• To get out of completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9565.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9395
• Breaking 9250 will enhance the confidence of local investors and might get mutual fund back into buying.
• Minimum weekly closing above 9425 for bull hopes
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,854
8,768
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,325 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyer for high returns
Key Levels
9,478
9,395
9,238
9,035
8,891
8,790
Dear Members/Clients
If you are aware of our weekly reports and the morning briefings then I am sure you realized the market high of the last week was exactly at our level which was 9,478 and market recorded 9,476 as a high for the week and this where we recommended the profit taking. And then low was also well supported by our levels. I specifically like to congratulate the traders who followed the AICL, DGKC and OGDC and were able to book the highest return for this week. I really like all of my readers to please come forward and learn the rules of engagement and enhance their trading skills. I am open for all those who really have the commitment towards the goal.
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
For the First Week of Nov, 2009
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Updated: Saturday, October 31, 2009
Hi Folks:
The whole week market was under heavy selling pressure by mutual funds, and the Peshawar blast added more to the market. Though the buyer were striving hard to support market and the visit of US foreign minister was also scheduled to help the country’s current uncertain political and economic situation, I am pretty optimistic that her visit will impact positively to the economy and it is observed that Ms Clinton will be able to suggest the US administration to rectify their policy to secure Pakistani interest. I really like to request the KSE and the regulators to please come forward and introduce some new products and do some road shows for the awareness of the local investors.
Market is bearish for now; Foreign investment still adding more and more to our reserves but we still like to have some institutional buying and control law and order situation in the country to stabilize the market.
Market Possibilities.
• To get out of completely from ongoing depression it is required for market to break the 9565.
• Bulls will be having energy after breaking 9395
• Breaking 9250 will enhance the confidence of local investors and might get mutual fund back into buying.
• Minimum weekly closing above 9425 for bull hopes
Maximum Possibility of Weekly High and Low
9,854
8,768
Some short term buying possibilities still exist in the market, investors must do profit taking if they see 9,325 on Monday. The ultimate hopes are still bullish; market will give a chance to the target buyer for high returns
Key Levels
9,478
9,395
9,238
9,035
8,891
8,790
Dear Members/Clients
If you are aware of our weekly reports and the morning briefings then I am sure you realized the market high of the last week was exactly at our level which was 9,478 and market recorded 9,476 as a high for the week and this where we recommended the profit taking. And then low was also well supported by our levels. I specifically like to congratulate the traders who followed the AICL, DGKC and OGDC and were able to book the highest return for this week. I really like all of my readers to please come forward and learn the rules of engagement and enhance their trading skills. I am open for all those who really have the commitment towards the goal.
For further analysis for any KSE scrip
Please Call
0345-276 8680
Or 021-3432 2359
We recommend the entry and stop loss for daily traders
Disclaimer: This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
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