Weekly Forecast for the
1st Week of Feb 2010
Exhausted Bears and Striving Bulls noticed in Karachi Stock Exchange
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Saturday, 30th January, 2010
Market Expectation:
From the beginning of the Past week market was under total control of Bears, continuous selling pressure blasted on Thursday by making the low of 9,415 and this was already mentioned in last week report. The market was volatile with the low interest of local and daily traders; market lost 163 points which is 1.67% of the total index, target buying witness on Thursday low overall 46% increase in volume recorded. Corporate result wasn’t able to make difference because of major concerns like monetary policy and uncertainty of political and economic conditions of the country.
Foreign reserves declined, FIPI and local institutions decided to be sideliner.
Last two days of the weeks bulls manage to push Bears back, though the trend is still not establish the chart is waiting for one more candle to be decisive on trend.
For daily traders it is recommended to follow the index, breaking 9,568 will be more selling pressure, on the other hand breaking 9,641 will bring bulls into the market, 9,812 is the major resistance, in present scenario market doesn’t look able for crossing this resistance.
It is suggested to buy specific banks, Insurance and few from oil sector. It is also required to make room to add more on given supports.
As we are experiencing trading on levels benefit in all type of market behavior so I still see great potential for local traders by honoring the precise levels of the market. I still prefer some profit taking followed by the target buying of selective scrips.
Key Levels
9,812
9,736
9,641
9,568
9,411
9,250
Market still looks fabulous and energetic for the near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010. Buy recommended on given support levels for high returns.
Monetary Update: Status quo maintained but credit pump is still open for private sector.
Despite 10.51% YoY CPI for Dec-09 compared to 23.3% observed in last year and to market consensus forecast of 11.8%, there has been no further reduction in policy rate due to following judgments:
• Reliance of interest rates more on liquidity rather than policy rate.
• Effectiveness of cautious monetary strategy, in the last 12 months, in controlling money supply and inflation, which can be offset, if there was executed again rate cut theme.
• Reduction of T-bills yields not to ease overall money supply but to restrain credit to pass it to government, which has always burdened inflationary pressures and caused crowding out effect – again a cautious monetary approach to discourage inflation sources and encourage private investment.
Besides, the main driver of banks’ credit off take is economy’s demand for credit which is signaling revival on back of favorable numerals of manufacturing sector. That’s why amid this demand, if SBP facilitates liquidity accessibility to private sector through its 'side approaches', it may save the banking sector and also private investors to hurt from the cautious policy rate approach. To sum up, SBP's combined approaches to facilitate investment avenues for banks should be under consideration rather than just the policy rate.
To see detail weekly report and KSE scrip analysis please call 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or email us at safelyinvest@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
5th Consecutive Selling Session in Karachi Stock Exchange
Morning Call for Wednesday, 27th Jan, 2010
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
5th Consecutive Selling Session in Karachi Stock Exchange
Weaker bulls striving hard to stop the dancing bears
The selling pressure continues in Karachi stock exchange with really low volumes, the 2 volume leaders FFBL, LOTPTA contributed the 41% of the total volume, and the other scrips were the spectator today.
The bearish is threat is elevating in traders, as the local traders along with the institutions are really worried of the current political situation in the country, the breathing expectation from Friends of Pakistan even not able to catch the interest of the traders. Good corporate results unable to catch the local interest.
Tomorrow we wish to expect some miracles, like opening above 9,693 may invite the local traders to open new positions. The bulls will see the first resistance around 9,720 and the 9,800 can be a limit. On the other hand 9,634 is the last hope for the Market to get out of ongoing pressure, breaking this level will extend the down slide up to 9,417.
Unfortunately the local and foreign institution still not interested for fresh buying, delay in leverage product is also an issue for sideliners.
Breaking News: World Bank supporting economy by 6 billion USD among this loan the 4 billion is a soft loan and the remaining loan is for budgetary support. We are still waiting on the closing statement of friends of Pakistan meeting.
Key Levels
9,867
9,800
9,720
9,634
9,562
9,487
9,417
9,800 become a high resisting area, once bulls manage to break this level will fill energy and we may see the new direction for the market.
I do not see any stable indication for intraday buyers but the profit taking, but I see amazing possibilities for those who prepared to reschedule their portfolios for ongoing quarter results.
For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
5th Consecutive Selling Session in Karachi Stock Exchange
Weaker bulls striving hard to stop the dancing bears
The selling pressure continues in Karachi stock exchange with really low volumes, the 2 volume leaders FFBL, LOTPTA contributed the 41% of the total volume, and the other scrips were the spectator today.
The bearish is threat is elevating in traders, as the local traders along with the institutions are really worried of the current political situation in the country, the breathing expectation from Friends of Pakistan even not able to catch the interest of the traders. Good corporate results unable to catch the local interest.
Tomorrow we wish to expect some miracles, like opening above 9,693 may invite the local traders to open new positions. The bulls will see the first resistance around 9,720 and the 9,800 can be a limit. On the other hand 9,634 is the last hope for the Market to get out of ongoing pressure, breaking this level will extend the down slide up to 9,417.
Unfortunately the local and foreign institution still not interested for fresh buying, delay in leverage product is also an issue for sideliners.
Breaking News: World Bank supporting economy by 6 billion USD among this loan the 4 billion is a soft loan and the remaining loan is for budgetary support. We are still waiting on the closing statement of friends of Pakistan meeting.
Key Levels
9,867
9,800
9,720
9,634
9,562
9,487
9,417
9,800 become a high resisting area, once bulls manage to break this level will fill energy and we may see the new direction for the market.
I do not see any stable indication for intraday buyers but the profit taking, but I see amazing possibilities for those who prepared to reschedule their portfolios for ongoing quarter results.
For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Karachi Stock Exchange for this week
Weekly Forecast for the 4th week of 2010
Congrats: for following in time profit taking call
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday, 22nd January, 2010
Market Outlook:
Past week begin with the range bound activities resulted in bearish closing with declining -1.46% below the earlier week.
Overall trading activities were focused on profit taking volumes rose by 46% and the FIPI decline by 0.76%. Despite all these facts foreign reserves are still growing.
Market has initial resistance of 9,797 for Monday and utmost resistance will be 9,873. As per current scenario market is still under selling pressure, breaking 9,721 on Monday will elevate the selling pressure in market. The upward trend on Monday will be an opportunity for traders to their profit taking, as we already mentioned in our last report that target achieved, now the bullish hope begin over 9,933.
Market may show some support around 9,658 and breaking this level will extend the down slide up to 9,411.
I do not see any stable indication for buyers but the profit taking, but I see amazing possibilities for those who prepared to reschedule their portfolios for first quarter results.
The agreement between PSO and Wall Street exchange, MCB filed suit in Sindh High Court and the expectation of Power tariff increase of 24% can be the major concerns for traders this week.
The ongoing NRO consequences for president getting worst after the French government request to other nation for the evidence collection. The lawyers are also planning some movement to enforce the SC decision. All these issues are enough to shake the investor’s confidence.
As we are experiencing trading on levels benefit in all type of market behavior so I still see great potential for local traders by honoring the precise levels of the market. I still prefer some profit taking followed by the target buying of selective scrips.
Key Levels
10,258
10,061
9,999
9,658
9,563
9,411
Market still looks fabulous and energetic for the near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010. Buy recommended on given support levels for high returns.
External front glancing off:
The massive inflow of remittances, at last, recuperated our ever-expanding current account deficit. According to the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan, the current account deficit was down by 78 percent to stand at $1.76 billion during July-December, 2009 as compared with $7.85 billion in the parallel period last year. However, at the domestic side, where our economic activities are interpreted by rise in imports, the triumph may not provide any ground for complacency, since a sharp fall in imports has been depicted. But, the shrink of C.A deficit can help in overcoming major structural problems of our economy. What’s encouraging here is that exports of textile industry showed ‘out of the blue’ growth of over 15 percent in December, which is an optimistic mark for overall exports of the country. Although, one-time remittance flow was also a cushion for our C.A deficit this time, recent innovations in formal remittance channels and recovery in global economy is expected to give steeper northward direction to remittances in future. On the other side, what’s hurting is that FDI is going downward, a key driver of our national output as well as external capital account.
To see detail weekly report and KSE scrip analysis please call 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or email us at safelyinvest@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Congrats: for following in time profit taking call
By
Khalid Saifuddin
Farkhunda Jabeen
Friday, 22nd January, 2010
Market Outlook:
Past week begin with the range bound activities resulted in bearish closing with declining -1.46% below the earlier week.
Overall trading activities were focused on profit taking volumes rose by 46% and the FIPI decline by 0.76%. Despite all these facts foreign reserves are still growing.
Market has initial resistance of 9,797 for Monday and utmost resistance will be 9,873. As per current scenario market is still under selling pressure, breaking 9,721 on Monday will elevate the selling pressure in market. The upward trend on Monday will be an opportunity for traders to their profit taking, as we already mentioned in our last report that target achieved, now the bullish hope begin over 9,933.
Market may show some support around 9,658 and breaking this level will extend the down slide up to 9,411.
I do not see any stable indication for buyers but the profit taking, but I see amazing possibilities for those who prepared to reschedule their portfolios for first quarter results.
The agreement between PSO and Wall Street exchange, MCB filed suit in Sindh High Court and the expectation of Power tariff increase of 24% can be the major concerns for traders this week.
The ongoing NRO consequences for president getting worst after the French government request to other nation for the evidence collection. The lawyers are also planning some movement to enforce the SC decision. All these issues are enough to shake the investor’s confidence.
As we are experiencing trading on levels benefit in all type of market behavior so I still see great potential for local traders by honoring the precise levels of the market. I still prefer some profit taking followed by the target buying of selective scrips.
Key Levels
10,258
10,061
9,999
9,658
9,563
9,411
Market still looks fabulous and energetic for the near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010. Buy recommended on given support levels for high returns.
External front glancing off:
The massive inflow of remittances, at last, recuperated our ever-expanding current account deficit. According to the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan, the current account deficit was down by 78 percent to stand at $1.76 billion during July-December, 2009 as compared with $7.85 billion in the parallel period last year. However, at the domestic side, where our economic activities are interpreted by rise in imports, the triumph may not provide any ground for complacency, since a sharp fall in imports has been depicted. But, the shrink of C.A deficit can help in overcoming major structural problems of our economy. What’s encouraging here is that exports of textile industry showed ‘out of the blue’ growth of over 15 percent in December, which is an optimistic mark for overall exports of the country. Although, one-time remittance flow was also a cushion for our C.A deficit this time, recent innovations in formal remittance channels and recovery in global economy is expected to give steeper northward direction to remittances in future. On the other side, what’s hurting is that FDI is going downward, a key driver of our national output as well as external capital account.
To see detail weekly report and KSE scrip analysis please call 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or email us at safelyinvest@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Aggravated Bears activity recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange
Morning Call for Friday, 22nd Jan, 2010
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
Aggravated Bears activity recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange.
Market closed at last bouncing support may see some bounce from here.
Right from the beginning Market was under control of bears, bulls found helpless all day. Started with some early morning selling which elevated fear in traders and end up with lot of negative points. Once the given support worked and pushed back the bears, but bulls wasn’t able to sustain their power and bears got their control back.
The immense selling pressure changed the overall trend of the market, but I see a hope around 9,728, this level has the weaker ability to push back the bears, but unfortunately 9,789 has the strong resistance where the bears can possibly push the bulls back into depression.
Still lack of buying noticed from local and foreign institutions.
It is recommended to add selective scrips on supports; the current supports are 9,647 and 9,562
I still recommend profit taking, before we go further down, Banking and Insurance can play positive role tomorrow, fertilizer and Oil can be the supportive sectors for index.
For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
Aggravated Bears activity recorded in Karachi Stock Exchange.
Market closed at last bouncing support may see some bounce from here.
Right from the beginning Market was under control of bears, bulls found helpless all day. Started with some early morning selling which elevated fear in traders and end up with lot of negative points. Once the given support worked and pushed back the bears, but bulls wasn’t able to sustain their power and bears got their control back.
The immense selling pressure changed the overall trend of the market, but I see a hope around 9,728, this level has the weaker ability to push back the bears, but unfortunately 9,789 has the strong resistance where the bears can possibly push the bulls back into depression.
Still lack of buying noticed from local and foreign institutions.
It is recommended to add selective scrips on supports; the current supports are 9,647 and 9,562
I still recommend profit taking, before we go further down, Banking and Insurance can play positive role tomorrow, fertilizer and Oil can be the supportive sectors for index.
For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Morning Call for Thursday, 21st Jan, 2010
Morning Call for Thursday, 21st Jan, 2010
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
Prominent sign of profit taking observed in Karachi Stock Exchange.
Lets the Bulls have some rest Folks
Market started with some early morning selling which was later turned into vibrant upside move where the traders participated with excitement and manage to test 10,000 barrier, but wasn’t able to sustain around it.
Given levels worked perfectly, market was bounced twice from the given S-1, and failed to sustain on third hit.
As I told you yesterday breaking and closing below 9,932 will bring selling pressure and it did, now the overall sentiment of the market is changing, no matter it tested 10,000 today.
As indicated the sign of bulls exhaustion recorded yesterday, and the same thing continues today. Minimum interest recorded from local and foreign institutions, local traders were in selling too.
9,976 still performed critically today, I am still optimistic as bears weren’t able to break 9,885 and bulls manage to close around 9,907 which was S-2 in our given levels.
I still recommend profit taking, before we go further down, Banking and Insurance can play positive role tomorrow, fertilizer and Oil can be the supportive sectors for index.
Buying around 9,860 with the stop loss of 9,810 is highly recommended. Holding some scrip is still profitable.
For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Exhausted Bulls in a bullish Market - Karachi Stock Exchange
Morning Call
for Wednesday, 20th Jan, 2010
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
Market started with the positive activities and handsome volumes, during the trade bulls were able to test the 10,000 level, but wasn’t able to sustain around it.
Overall activities were bullish and it is observed that the traders regaining the confidence to be a part of the ongoing trend.
With all these bullish activities bulls also recorded sign of exhaustion, and later we saw some profit taking.
Market moving up in a low bandwidth, which is keeping bulls under a certain range. Lack of interest recorded from local and foreign institutions, local investors were also shy of holding their positions.
Trading and closing below 9,932 may bring some selling pressure, on the other hand 9,976 is still a critical level for getting out of 10,000 barrier
I wish market would not trade below 9,885, breaking this level will elevate the selling pressure and hit the regained confidence of the investors.
Market’s outlook is fabulous for near term future, but here it is fair to do remaining profit taking and find out the next level for entry. Holding some scrip is still profitable.
For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
for Wednesday, 20th Jan, 2010
Khalid Saifuddin
Safely Invest
Market started with the positive activities and handsome volumes, during the trade bulls were able to test the 10,000 level, but wasn’t able to sustain around it.
Overall activities were bullish and it is observed that the traders regaining the confidence to be a part of the ongoing trend.
With all these bullish activities bulls also recorded sign of exhaustion, and later we saw some profit taking.
Market moving up in a low bandwidth, which is keeping bulls under a certain range. Lack of interest recorded from local and foreign institutions, local investors were also shy of holding their positions.
Trading and closing below 9,932 may bring some selling pressure, on the other hand 9,976 is still a critical level for getting out of 10,000 barrier
I wish market would not trade below 9,885, breaking this level will elevate the selling pressure and hit the regained confidence of the investors.
Market’s outlook is fabulous for near term future, but here it is fair to do remaining profit taking and find out the next level for entry. Holding some scrip is still profitable.
For further assistance, precise key levels of any KSE Scrip you can contact our office @ 0213-432 2359 or 0345-276 8680 or write us @ safelyinvest@gmail.com
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Morning call for Karachi Stock Exchange
Morning Call
For Tuesday, 19th January, 2010
Let bulls get some rest folks!
Folks I told you market will be range bound from here and possibly do some profit taking and it did. I am still stick to my last statement which is; Breaking 9,858 will bring some selling in market and 9,762 will be the lower limit for range bound activities.
Trading above 9,918 with volumes will allow buyers for re-entry. I don’t recommend too much excitement for buyers, be very specific in selection of scrip with given stop losses. Buying in negative index in strong and selective scrip with stop loss 9,858 can be a good entry
Minimum interest recorded from foreign and local institutions. The local traders were also preferred to be sideline.
I still see great potential for local traders by honoring the precise levels of the market. I still prefer some profit taking followed by the target buying of selective scrips.
Market still looks fabulous and energetic for the near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010.
For further assistance, precise levels of KSE scrip and buy calls, please call our office @ 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680, email: safelyinvest@ gmail.com
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
For Tuesday, 19th January, 2010
Let bulls get some rest folks!
Folks I told you market will be range bound from here and possibly do some profit taking and it did. I am still stick to my last statement which is; Breaking 9,858 will bring some selling in market and 9,762 will be the lower limit for range bound activities.
Trading above 9,918 with volumes will allow buyers for re-entry. I don’t recommend too much excitement for buyers, be very specific in selection of scrip with given stop losses. Buying in negative index in strong and selective scrip with stop loss 9,858 can be a good entry
Minimum interest recorded from foreign and local institutions. The local traders were also preferred to be sideline.
I still see great potential for local traders by honoring the precise levels of the market. I still prefer some profit taking followed by the target buying of selective scrips.
Market still looks fabulous and energetic for the near future. Key advice is to reschedule your portfolios and gear up for March, 2010.
For further assistance, precise levels of KSE scrip and buy calls, please call our office @ 0213 432 2359 or 0345-276 8680, email: safelyinvest@ gmail.com
--
Disclaimer: This commentary, news or key levels are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpret the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. We accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these levels. However the author DOES NOT GUARANTEES the accuracy of information provided on this report and is NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS AND/OR OMISSIONS.
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